The game is up for the housing hype-peddlers - D McWilliams

But were the shills engaged in the telling of a Platonic ‘noble lie’. That is, was telling the untruth, that no bubble existed a noble act; in that it created a widely held felling of financial well being and created ‘growth’ and employment. The perception of wealth is more important than the actual realisation of wealth (and much more easily achieved), it could be argued. :confused:

2Gaffs,

The only reason that people were so wrong about how long it would take to play out was that nobody in their right mind could have seen how much superglue would be used to keep the house of cards standing.

What was said over and over was that the longer it went on the worse it would be when it fell, and I’m pretty sure DMCW would still stand over that claim. I know I do.

Remember we’re not talking here about one of those predictions where everyone accepts that you’ll eventually be right. For most of the years you refer to people were ridiculing the idea that house prices could EVER fall.

It was to be boom boom boom, then level off to steady and healthy growth until the next boom boom boom. The boomier it got, the better.

I still maintain that the length things went on and the amount of building that happened means that we have a looonng way to fall, and if a solid floor is found any time soon I’ll gladly admit I was wrong.

Those people predicting that things were out of control 10 years ago could still be proved right.

Remember the people claiming we’ll find the floor soon are the same people who claimed we’d never reach the ceiling.

-Rd

One obvious quibble with that, the Celtic Tiger period started in the mid-90s :exclamation:

sorry mark , you are correct , in that it should have been mid 90s.
but he was predicting falling house prices for well over a decade now.
i dont have any verifiable evidence in the form of links if thats what you are looking for - but i did see a mid nineties link a while back on here?
anyone have it?
the point is that DMCW has been going on and on about the death of the CT ( when it was only a cub ) and going on and on about the fall of house prices for well over a decade.
i know this because he put me off buying a gaff when i was starting out :smiling_imp:
i dont have a link , but surely someone else on here remembers him talking about the fact that closing coffee shops meant we were doomed … anyone? it sounds bizaare but that is what he was saying back then.

anyway , the point is that of course he was going to be right at some stage. maybe some people believed that house prices would never stop going up , but there are fools everywhere , so why is any one surprised at this?
of course gaffs have been selling for crazy money - no sane person would disagree.

people like DMCW is a vested interest too BTW.
they write stuff like this which sells papers to bears.
whether they actually believe it or not is irrelevant , they are out to make money the same as anyone else.
they might be correct now but remember they were writing it years ago and they were wrong - so BEAR that in mind - (bear ,geddit?)

Well, I think it quite important you provide one, otherwise your claims have no substance.

yep , i defo see where you are coming from alright - having said that there were fk all papers online back in those days.

im sure i saw a link on here (maybe it was later than mid 90s )- i will post it when i stumble across it.

you will agree that he has cried wolf before tho?

The Celtic Tiger has been dead 7 years now - don’t let this property bubble fool you. The Celtic Tiger was about youth, education, dynamism, technology.

What we’re looking at now is the stodgy fat Elvis in the bathtub with a burger in each hand.

If you post me a quote then we can both make a judgement on it.

For example, to say in 2003 that the Irish property market is acting like a bubble and will crash, would have been an entirely correct reading of events.

I think we need to be clear about what people are saying (I believe the Irish property market has been disfunctional for maybe 8-10 years and exposed to the risk of significant correction over that time), versus what they haven’t (I have never said prices will fall x % next year).

The Celtic Tiger is a myth. A term used since the 1980s to describe economies in a capital accumulation growth phase, applied to a country in a fiscal, monetary and incomes policy inspired bubble.

There were a lot of people claiming that he’d never be right, he was a crackpot, a nutter. House prices would level off, then up up and away again.

Don’t dismiss this as the feeble rantings of a few fools, this was the official line from practically all EAs, Economists, Politicians etc. And it’s a message that hit home and found traction among the public.

The number of people I met who believed it far far exceeds those who questioned it. As recently as a few months ago our Taoiseach prescribed suicide for people who dissented from the grail of everlasting boom.

We’re going to end up arguing about when David McWilliams became right. We all now (apparently) agree that he is and has been for some time, it’s just a question of how for back.

I’m glad to hear that you agree that all those who talked up the market in 2007, 2006 and 2005 were insane. I’d go back to 2004, 2003, 2002 at least, and probably 2001, but I suspect we’d part company there.

-Rd

Today’s Ireland looks, smells and feels like Japan in the late 1980s Japan. Every time I see the excellent “Take five @ �200,000″ piece in the Irish Times property section, in which a two up, two down in Stoneybatter costs as much as a chateau in Provence, I think of Tokyo’s imperial palace and Canada around 1990.

This is from the man in October 2000.

davidmcwilliams.ie/2000/10/29/ireland-looks-like-japan-before-the-bubble-burst

bubble predictions

This is the oldest I can find from 29th October 2000. That’s not to say that there’s no articles from pre 2000 but I don’t think his website goes back any further.

He’s been waiting a long time for this bubble to pop.

LOL at the Las Vegas Elvis reference conor_mc. tradmark it before DMcW puts it in the next book :smiley:

damn southofdub beat me to it :frowning:

There appears to be an error in that articale, re. Japan.

If you think 7 years is a long time then the recovery is going to seem like eternity. There are people out there who take out 7 year loans to buy cars.

-Rd

Dammit, y’know I would do that tulip, only it’s so McWilliams-esque that I can’t actually be sure I didn’t hear it from the man himself first! :wink:

Incidentally, it was around 2002-2003 that rents started flat lining in less desirable parts of Dublin. It’s not DMCW’s fault that people were determined to swim against the tide much longer than sense dictated. Maybe “Ireland is different” after all.

The “Celtic Tiger” period began in the mid-1990s and lasted until the global economic downturn of 2001. From 1994 to 2000 GNP rate growth ranged between 6 and 11%, falling through 2001 and early 2002 to 2%, the level at which the economy had been growing in the early 1990s. The rate subsequently rose back to an average of about 5%. During this period Irish living standards rose dramatically to equal then eventually surpass that of all but one state in Western Europe.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celtic_Tiger

I dont know about DMCW but I have been predicting this crash since the mid 90’s :wink:

Round about 2012 David McWilliams will be found driving around a completely empty town in Laois in a Mustang shouting “I AM LEGEND”.

zercustoms.com/news/Ford-She … egend.html

-Rd