The Great Global Warming Debate


#2388

What if they go way way way way way way… would stop please!

I am actually going to watch this as background to my simcity 4 or to sleep on evening, might be not sane but fun :wink:

btw… Documentary not supposed to be a solutions book, it should show some topic, although objectivity is not here probably ;).
As much as i am against oil and fossils pollution which I can smell each winter, I don’t think creation of another time bomb and enforcing it blindly is the way to go. I am really annoyed at lack of investment in nuclear research as its marked DEADLY by lunatic greens in Germany. That’s why Poland did not get nuclear plant yet and we are at or over production capacity at the moment.

Post covid economic measures should bring more manufacturing home to EU, but should != will. Especially it would mean more emissions previously exported to China :confused:
Actually maybe it will happen…not all, at most 10%. Moreover it will not go into “expensive EU”, but it will land mostly in cheaper countries places like Poland which opposes green deal due to coal dependency… so more fuel for political games :wink:


#2389

Not all of the Green agenda makes sense. Particularly the focus on just levying taxes to force migration to uncompetitive energy sources. That will simply depress the economy and hurt the ability to do the good stuff. They are also generally ideologically opposed to nukes, which to my mind moves them in the wrong direction along the spectrum between sane pragmatists and swivel-eyed tree huggers.

I agree about offshore wind but it uses a horrendous amount of concrete and steel. To truly crack the problem we need floating offshore wind and that is still at a very early pre-commercial stage. Levelised costs are way too high at €200/MWh. I don’t believe battery technology is ever going to solve the grid storage problem. Small amounts of batteries can still make huge savings in load smoothing, but true grid scale won’t happen imho so the intermittency problem will remain with us.

Hydrogen and ammonia could indeed be partial solutions for stranded wind (including the massive cost of grid connections for far offshore wind), but they are not enormously efficient and to use them most sensibly in a hydrogen transport infrastructure would involve huge transition costs. In short, I think it might be doable but it is a project of many, many decades. The danger is that Green lunatics will wreck the economy before we get there. One problem with most renewables compared to the fossil fuel alternatives is the massive up front capital costs. To raise that sort of money requires ongoing confidence in a robust economy.


#2390

I’m also worried by the small gap between ideology and fanaticism but like nearly everything in Ireland, the middle ground holds things in check far longer than the fanatics would like.

Energy in Ireland has been uncompetitive for 25 years but is more than adequately compensated by other factors of interest to the pharma and IT sectors. Insurance and rents are a multiple of energy costs for SMEs so I’m not particularly worried by input energy costs. Salaries in Ireland are also way higher than other European countries driven by housing, food, entertainment costs etc. but not really by energy. So I don’t agree that levying taxes to move to uncompetitive energy sources is necessarily going to end in disaster.

It certainly is a big, costly project but strangely enough, we’re already at 40% renewables penetration and that was done with relatively small turbines, no solar, no batteries, no electric cars, no change in customer behaviours etc… The size of the wind turbines coming are the size of the individual Ardnacrusha units and the coming wind farms are bigger than Moneypoint. It doesn’t take too many of those to get to 100% renewables for large portions of the year. The intermittency problem will be solved by a combination of all the above because there will be money to be made by solving it.

2019 UK CfD prices for Offshore wind indicate that £50/MWh is now acheivable. Even if we take a healthy Irish premium and say €80/MWh for offshore wind in Ireland and make an estimate that this is €30/MWh more than the equivalent gas plant income, then, at 40TWh demand per annum on the island, we would be paying a €1.2bn premium each year for renewable electricity generation and another ~€0.5bn per annum for the backup and services from conventional generation. Spending €1.7bn per annum might not be efficient, might not be clever but it won’t wreck the economy. We’ve probably committed 10 times that in Covid-19 measures so far.

There was a dismissive comment made by one of the Sierra Club members in the above documentary looking at the construction of the wind turbine foundations …“it lasts only 20 years…blink of an eye, blink of an eye”.


#2391

When I hear about “getting rid of oil and gas in home heating” I think of the poor and the elderly putting their last coin in the meter. Ideologies; what terrible things are done for ideologies.


#2392

That’s 40% electricity, of course. 90% of it is wind. We’re way behind on renewable heat and transport which are more like 7%, and 90% of the latter is from imported biofuels (2017 SEAI numbers).

Thanks for the link and for providing numbers. Fascinating, and impressive.


#2393

He is a good speaker though. Where IYO does he get it wrong on his climate change claims?


The Caretakers Covid-19 legislation, challenged in the High Court
#2394

Monckton seems to be more interested in proving that global warming is negligible or inconsequential than sticking to any particular method. Therefore his arguments (which I’ve read) in 2008, 2015, and today have all been different. You can track them down easily enough on the web, along with counterarguments that debunk him. His latest is an argument about the feedback gain from CO2 forcing, based on comparing absolute temperatures on the Kelvin scale. But he provides no physical justification for why this should be a valid approach.


#2395

Interesting. I’ll check out his shifting arguments.
He’s a colourful character.

[Edit]
Another interesting phenomenon is the cottage industry that exists to counter the arguments of people such as Lord Monckton.

https://www.skepticalscience.com/Monckton_Myths_arg.htm

That site is run by John Cook…

John Cook is a research assistant professor at the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University. He obtained his PhD at the University of Western Australia, studying the cognitive psychology of climate science denial.

https://skepticalscience.com/posts.php?u=1

Who studies that?

Anyway…gone off topic now. IMO, the human climate change debate is a massive rabit-hole.


#2396

Up for free online for a few days. Worth a watch. There are errors in the solar efficiency I believe but it at least gives an alternative insight into many things that are glossed over in the renewable field.

It also exposes alot of the outright swindling and media effort to control the narrative. Oh and Al Gore is absolute con man… funds in the Cayman islands and making money from oil basically lol


#2397

I was reading today about German Datteln IV new coal power plant (which basically replaced nuclear power plant in Philipsburg decommissioned last December). Although, that’s nothing compared to the bigger plan of selling gas from “Schroeder retirement pipe” plus blocking new nuclear across in EU.


#2398

The global warming/man-made climate change hoax has been completely forgotten about since the 'rona hoax arrived on the scene and even the mainstream media are finally admitting that we’re in a grand solar minimum. Cold weather crop losses will be a huge issue in the coming years.

@ps200306- try debunk what I’ve posted here. :sunglasses:


#2399

Off the west coast of Ireland? I’ve spent time ‘at sea’ in the north atlantic and floating platforms that need conductors attached are a challenge I don’t think are worth wasting thought on. The physical forces are so huge. Intermittent periods 15 metre waves, freak waves, wind speeds of 120-150kn/h - how do you keep them tethered to the conductor? Ok, maybe you design a breakable conductor that operates at extremes.

How do you reconnect them without an armada of tugs and thousands of staff. If you want to restore connections in a timely manner? Sea state declination lags a wind event so lets say a storm breaks most of the connections, the wind abates but it’s really rough on the surface for another 24-48 hours. I’ve been out in sea state 7, bordering 8 and it’s a barrel of laughs.

I haven’t even begun on anchoring? It’s just not going to work in the north atlantic IMO.


#2400

It is impossible to drill in deepwater off the west coast of Ireland for more than a month or two each year for the same reasons. Riser connections, heave etc. Three month window for drilling around August max. Well said.


#2401

You didn’t make any claim to debunk. You yakked on about the cold weather crop losses last year too. You didn’t tell us which “coming years” you were talking about. Any claim relating to a possible configuration of the weather will be true eventually. We’ll have palm trees in the Arctic eventually, as we’ve had before. But to debunk a specific claim there would have to be a specific claim, not just the trotting out of some looney right wing trope. And the allegation that corona virus is a hoax puts you on the looniest outer edges of the lunatic fringe.

What I can say is that there is no scientific backing for the idea that a normal solar minimum has a direct effect on weather. There is no consensus, for instance, that the Maunder Minimum was connected with the Little Ice Age in Europe. In any event, the Little Ice Age was a regional event, and therefore nothing to do with global warming.

Even looking at the recent statistical data, any correlation of solar minima with cooling periods is swamped by the influence of the ENSO oscillation and other climate factors:


#2402

Equinor (formerly Statoil) would disagree. They’ve taken their oil and gas history and experience and turned it into viable floating offshore windfarms. They started with a pilot in a Norwegian fjord in 2009, have a floating offshore windfarm 20 miles off the coast of Peterhead, Scotland since 2017, and are developing one 140km off the coast of Norway in 200m+ depth to supply power to multiple oil and gas platforms. Maybe the North Sea off Scotland and Norway is calm in comparison to the North Atlantic but once the engineering is understood, its only a matter of time…

…during November, December, and January, Hywind Scotland generated at an average of 65% — and has encountered hurricane Ophelia in October, Storm Caroline in early December, and waves in excess of 8.2 meters. Storm Caroline did force the farm to shut down during the worst of the winds for safety reasons, but the turbines automatically resumed operation afterwards.

“We have tested the Hywind technology in harsh weather conditions for many years and we know it works,” said Beate Myking, senior vice president of offshore wind operations in Statoil. “But putting the world’s first floating wind farm into production comes with some excitement. Therefore, it is very encouraging to see how well the turbines have performed so far

The Windfloat Atlantic project is 20km off the coast across from the northern part of Portugal and is operational since the start of the year. If that one can survive the North Atlantic now (with designs from 3-4 years ago considering development timelines), then the turbines connecting in 2030 will be a multiple of the size and more resilient again.
EdP (Portuguese utility) had a pilot floating offshore wind turbine from 2011 to 2016 which survived wave heights of 17m and would be considered stone age technology now.

Floating offshore in the Atlantic is coming to Ireland in the next 10 years would be my guess.


#2403

Don’t get me wrong, I’d be happy to see it but I can’t see it working for long off of our west coast.


#2404

Thats the risk alright. The portuguese pilot for 5 years is positive in that respect.


#2405

Maybe it would make more sense to harvest wave power in the North Atlantic instead of wind.
Floating pontoons with hinged sections could be more durable that blades over 100m asl


#2406

There was a pilot/trial years ago, I remember seeing them on the quay in Foynes around 2002 but that’s all I ever knew about it


#2407

Came out of UCD I think and didn’t take off from what I recall.