The Hyper Negativity Balancing Thread

I love this site, I really do, but sometime I despair at the hyper negativity (see 2gaffs recent posts) about how we are all doomed and anyone paying a mortgage is a fool etc etc.

I was particularly taken by the following reality post:

Now don’t get me wrong - I am as bearish as the next man - but parts of the economy are doing just fine thank you very much.

There are people who did not get caught up in this mess (granted many had to leave the country to avoid it).

Financial services in Dublin is booming. Pharma is booming. Tourism Ireland are doing a great job. No one talks down Ireland like the Irish.

Even after all the levy’s Irish personal tax is competitive with the UK. Yes, people will get wiped out. Yes, some a chained to mortgages which will destroy their living standards for the next decade - I feel for them - but less of the hyper nickers negativity and a bit more balance please. Ronan Lyons gets jumped on because he says it may not be THAT bad out their.

Pennies have dropped across the country. This can only be a good thing. For one Ireland is not a nicer place to be as many (not all) have dropped the property hyperbole obsession and we have learned to talk about other things again - like culture, surfing, the quality of the pint etc.

Recovery WILL happen (not yet). Don’t miss it by writing off the place.

KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON. 8DD

Disclaimer
The value of your property will drop like a stone as well as fall. :-GC

good one :laughing:

A whole thread constructed on a strawman argument? Excellent.

Somethings you get so caught up in the micro that you miss the macro. Postitive things are happening (Google etc.).

There is a certain sneeriness at good news on the forum sometimes.

Please define ‘recovery’.

Stop!You’re talking up the market!!

Financial services is quite mixed actually. If you work for one of the Irish Banks you’re foo-bared. Foreign companies are apprehensive.

ICT on the other hand is booming. There’s trouble getting people though. No-one wants to come to Ireland at the moment due to things being perceived as so bad. Those in jobs are sticking with them. Salaries are down roughly 30% so no incentive to move really and better the devil you know. Hence there’s a surplus of jobs and deficit of employees. Contract market slowly recovering. Rates still subdued but good choice of work. You can be fussy about what you take.

The problem is this is a property site. And that’s what we talk about. The property market is at least 30% overvalued right now if you go by the Central Bank baseline at that’s conservative. 50% if you’re more real. We really need to do something drastic like introduce property taxes immediately to totally crash the market. Then in a couple of years time we can forget about property and get on with our lives. We can buy accommodation at a reasonable price and live out our lives till we’re old and crinkly.

A few positive things:

My commercial tenants are happy. Rents are half what they were. Continuing property price falls are good for the competitiveness of the country. Irish people are working harder and directing their efforts towards productive activity. We can now develop national competencies other than obtaining planning permission and loan approval.

Everything is cheaper except fuel

Irish people are working again. Last few people I hired for manual jobs have been Irish and have actually done a good job.
250K have lost jobs since the boom but the level of employment seems to have stabilised around 1.8m (250K above a decade ago)
Ireland is becoming less wasteful. Less land-fill waste being produced. More people cycling and walking on the streets (figures will be in this year’s census). Zeitgeist move from bling to prudence

Rents are stabilising so yields are improving. I know that you’d all like rent to be as low as possible but I think it’s at an acceptable trading level now. My personal domestic rent and commercial rents are at very reasonable levels compared to my income. Prices are still far too high.

Regarding Ireland’s debt and solvency, I feel we have now moved back home with Mammy Europe and that we will be carried through to the other side. We can’t be seen by the PIGS to get off lightly so I’d imagine that another round of pay and welfare cuts will be required for penance in the next couple of years. The ECB seems to have bought a lot of Irish bank debt so we have now handcuffed ourselves to our rescuer.

Keeping going cheeky - I love your posts

I love this site too - too much so indeed - I’m afraid I’m becomming addicted.

Good Post!

+1

You are describing a temporary problem for a few people, meanwhile the market continues downwards, as will this house that is being squabbled over once it’s sold.

Is Pharma booming???
Maybe it’s stable but i’m not seeing too many job ads.

Tourism?
What’s that?
Seriously,you are joking about the tourism yeah?

No, I don’t accept that.
Baked beans are up 50% in the last 12 months alone.
And that’s a LOT of money when doctor has ordered you off everything else!

This is supposed to but about positives. I did not say tourism was booming - just that Tourism Ireland are doing a great job - we won’t see the results today, but they will come.

Financial services: Of course we need to exclude domestic but the international stuff is at record levels.

Pharma - Lots of positive announcements (Tralee) and exports are very much up.

IT - inward investment in the new knowledge based economy is up.

Such a bunch of glass half empties. :slight_smile:

Stirs the soul:
youtube.com/watch?v=5emdftOIoos

“Such a bunch of glass half empties.”

If only it were half empty!
It has been completely empty for some time now, as recently confirmed by the IMF.

Positivity point: A stirring video

Negativity point: Advertising “…sea cliffs highest in Europe” while showing the cliffs of Moher, even though Failte Ireland should know by now the highest sea cliffs in Europe are in DONEGAL :open_mouth:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slieve_League

ICT is absolutely booming, however it’s booming worldwide. I reckon we’re pretty close to missing the boat and being bypassed long-term.

There are loads of jobs but no candidates with either: a) the right skills, or b) the right attitude.

Roughly half the candidates I see, and peers see, are not Irish. Statistically this is a poor showing. Most of the Irish candidates have spent the last 5 years or so pissing their life away and are still applying, or only suitable for, the most junior of roles.

That said, that can change pretty quickly. ICT is very hot right now. Just like Hansel.

If we could only figure out how to turn left.

Agree entirely. I live abroad and in the town where I live, the annual property tax on an average 100m² house is 1500-2000€ - people just accept it and pay up, because it has always been there (unlike the former rates in Ireland). But lets make it equitable - it should be based both the house’s size and value (an algorithm surely not beyond the abilities of some of those unemployed tax experts out there), and factor in financial hardship where appropriate. It might also be useful to apply an exponentially increasing rate on properties valued at say, over 1 million (which from where I am still sounds like a collossal amout of dosh). A flat rate of 100 € (or whatever) is nothing to a rich property owner in D4 but could be significant to those in serious financial difficulty.

Errrrr
I hate to show my ignorance, but I have no idea what ICT is… :blush: