The International Trade (War) Thread


#39

By what metric? In PPP terms?


#40

The aggregate benefit of hundreds of millions of Chinese becoming richer appears to be greater than the aggregate disbenefit of a few million, or even a few tens of millions of Americans becoming poorer, so in straightforward utilitarian terms, Eschatologist is correct. Still, it’s unlikely many people take much personal satisfaction from being one of the eggs cracked into making the omelette.


#41

:laughing:


#42

That wasn’t a joke, by the way, just an allusion.
I thought I’d better say, in case anyone thinks I’m utterly heartless, rather than just mostly heartless. :wink:


#43

I’m not trying to offset the happiness of the average Chinese against the misery of the average American.

I simply don’t think America has a wealth problem. It has a wealth distribution problem.

Look at GDP per capita adjusted for PPP. They’re 12th.

data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD

USA: $57,638.2
China: $15,529.1

Look at who is above USA. If you remove all the oil and city states you’re left with…Ireland. Which is pretty much a city state.

Lots of prosperous, happy countries in the 40k-50k region.

What level of GDP per capita would the US require to rob Trump of his core? There is no answer, because more GDP per capita isn’t the answer to the USA’s problems.

So, maybe trade barriers are the solution, as long as the US is happier being poorer in the aggregate in order to fill the order books of some steel plants.


#44

Are the trade deals with Canada responsible for this? Have any trade deals or tariffs been pointed out as what is causing the problem? The reaction to Trudeau saying that Canada would retaliate to US tariffs with tariffs of their own was pretty ridiculous.


#45

More statements of the obvious in language that even a Trump supporter could understand. Probably.

Tariffs Won’t Make America Great Again
pragcap.com/tariffs-wont-ma … ica-great/


#46

Read the article in its entirety. It’s worth it. theepochtimes.com/why-china … 94509.html


#47

It looks like the Yanks are taking the China/US trade war to the next level by arresting the CFO of Huawei in Canada and seeking her extradition to the US. This comes on the back of a couple of Telco’s backing out of using them as a vendor for their 5G kit in Britain, Australia and NZ.


#48

This looks like the key take away, less Trade War more Cold War.

You have to go back to stories like ithe below in May of this year, to get a better view on the long game and to what is really going on. The infiltration by communist China deep into the US and US military infrastructure and personnel seems to be what is at play here, nor is it by accident.

Basically even as a consumer, you have to treat anything electronic manufactured in China especially by Chinese companies as spyware if it has a camera, mic and can connect to the net. I would include Toys in that.


#49

There was an incident discovered earlier in the year where a lot of US Internet traffic from one of their Telco’s was being routed through China Telecom and then back. It appears they have become quite brazen of late. I’ll see if I can find the link.


#50

#51

Australia and NZ have banned Huawei equipment from 5G telecoms due to security risk
and a new law in China requires any domestic firm to assist the government when asked


#52

This is the rumour doing the rounds in China regarding what is going on with Huawei CFO.


#53

news.yahoo.com/us-general-googl … 44501.html


#54

Japan follows US not far behind.

I saw it noted Nokia share price has gained as an affect of the news of competitors difficulties, not sure how true that is but might be something in it with the 5G race. - marketwatch.com/investing/stock/NOK


#55

telegraph.co.uk/business/20 … pens-asia/

reuters.com/article/us-chin … SKCN1OU01C

scmp.com/economy/china-econ … acts-first


#56

cnbc.com/2019/01/02/china-r … index.html


#57

the cold war intensifies


#58

Charles Hughs Smith makes a interesting observation.

China’s Insurmountable Global Weakness: Its Currency

May 23, 2019

If China wants superpower status, it will have to issue its currency in size and let the global FX market discover its price.

Quick history quiz: in all of recorded history, how many superpowers pegged their currency to the currency of a rival superpower? Put another way: how many superpowers have made their own currency dependent on another superpower’s currency?

Only one: China. China pegs its currency, the yuan (RMB) to the U.S. dollar. It adjusts the peg a bit here and there, but the yuan’s value is set by the Chinese state, not by the market of buyers and sellers.

(Yes, various nations have used gold coins minted by rival powers (Spanish pieces of eight were money everywhere, for example) but we’re talking about fiat currencies , backed by nothing but supply and demand, not intrinsically valuable gold coins.)

Second question: is pegging your currency to a rival power’s currency a sign of strength? The obvious answer is no. It’s a sign of weakness. A real financial power issues its own currency and let’s the global FX (foreign exchange) market discover the relative price / value of the currency. The financial power trusts the market to discover the value / price of its currency, and it responds by raising or lowering the yields on its government bonds and other pricing inputs.

If the issuing nation won’t allow users and owners of its currency price discovery , few will want the currency because they can’t trust the state’s arbitrary, non-market price. This reality is reflected in the chart below of global currencies’ relative share in global payments, loans and reserves. China’s currency, the yuan (RMB) is basically signal noise: its global role in payments, loans and reserves is near-zero.

Read More here - https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay19/China-currency5-19.html