The "Is that value I see?" thread.....


#1

So, with all those 400k apartments out there you’d be forgiven for thinking there is a sellers strike when it comes to pricing to sell.

Looks like probate will out…

This to me is a fair price:

myhome.ie/residential/search … EBCX370660

Any other examples out there…


#2

It looks to me like that place needs a fair amount of work - how many people earn the 250k+ a year you’d need to be earning for non-bubble mortgage for this?


#3

750k for an ugly 4 bed in monkstown during a recession, are you insane?


#4

a) it’s hideous
b) it’s “In need of complete modernisation and refurbishment”

€750K? Value? Yer having a laugh, it’s a derelict wreck, you’d need to spend €150K at least to get it up to remotely acceptable standards. Given sane lending criteria of 4x a very good wage if it was modernised then I figure residual value is under €100K right now.


#5

The best value I’ve personally seen so far is a place in D14 where the asking price has fallen to 2001/2002 levels. But judging by the rent other identical houses in the estate achieve, it’s still overpriced by approx. 20% (applying the 14 times annual gross rental metric).


#6

Have you seen how tiny the living rooms are in that house? They are very tiny, both are less than 2.75m wide. Realistically speaking you’d have to build a significant extension to the rear and use the front rooms as a study and playroom. Other than that I guess you could make the kitchen into a livingroom, make the breakfastroom and adjoining livingroom into a kitchen/diner and leave one small livingroom as a playroom/study. But even still you would be spending close to a million euro between the price, the renovation and the SD. Not really worth it for a small, suburban detached house, is it?

I can see why it appears like good value. It is compared to so many properties currently available. But our perceptions of value have been warped in these last few years. This house is probably worth 1/3 of the asking.


#7

I think there is still a fair bit of denial out there.

In a recent discussion with some relatives, it was mentioned that a house up the road (in good condition) was for sale for 700k, and I was scoffed at when I commented that the seller should bite the hand off anyone offering close to 700k, as 4 beds in south county Dublin would be available for 400 - 500k in another few months.


#8

It’s a on a really really busy road to the front, and an even busier one to the side…definitely not good value!


#9

You might be being optimistic about it happening in a few months. The level of denial in Ireland and the slowness of this crash is utterly depressing. :frowning:


#10

It’s accelerating rapidly. A look at the ‘treesdon’tgrowtothesky’ chart below shows that very clearly. But I agree that the sooner it’s over the better…

https://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/cache/daft_num_drops.png


#11

You are not going to see a “collapse” in value to 4x basic pay on the South Side. Until such time as we have foced liquidations of property by the banks (turkey voting for Christmas) prices will remain sticky. Near free interest rates makes people holding on to property more afforable.

This house would have been up at close on €1m during the boom. I think they should bite someones hand off at £500k but will hold out for €700k. There are people out there who want, even need, to buy…and don’t forget the first active default mortgage is still 40 years LOL.


#12

It’s a sign that prices are “getting there” in terms of falling in order to reach their true value, but as the others mentioned, the house in question needs a lot of refurbishment. The only thing it has really going for it is its location and its plot. I’d say €500,000 or less would be a more accurate refelction of its current market value - if there was a market for the place.


#13

You hope. Your argument only holds water if people don’t have to sell

What other real metric are you using 3.5 sal mult is historical AFAIR, and to 4 because of the cheap credit otherwise yield based and it doesn’t stack there either.


#14

750k… You are off your game… as the other posters said, it needs to be demolished & rebuilt. You selling it perhaps :angry:


#15

Cheeky Offer, You’ll have to get a lot more cheeky, if you think this is good value :slight_smile:


#16

I disagree.
Firstly those 400k apartments need to be 50k to 100k depending.
This gaff, brand new could house a professional persons familly. 120~k salary. 3 times 120k = 360k.
The price of that house needs to be cut in half if it were in top notch condition. It doesn’t look like it’s in top notch condition to me.


#17

Oh dear. We discussed this many times and I haven’t the heart to go through it again. This type of gaff WILL reduce to 3 times salary. You have a cognative dissonance.


#18

It will reduce to 3 times salary perhaps, but not 3 times average salary. Its a haven for doctors, solicitors etc who have a much higher salary than a barman or factory worker. Its an above average area, full of people who are on above average money.


#19

Interesting to see a 3 bed just down the road in similar condition went for quite a bit more last May:

12 Monkstown Rd, Monkstown
Three-bed semi needing work. Sold: €940,000. Agent: Sherry FitzGerald
irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2008/0501/1209420702080.html


#20

People have replaced the question “What can I afford to pay?” with “What am I willing to pay?”

We have a very different mindset nowadays. Yes, banks criteria are stricter, but prices are also lower. The real issue though is that no-one wants to get “stung” with a 250k paper loss, even if they can afford it. Sure there are 100s of people who would have jumped on that place 18months ago, people who would still have no problem buying it now etc. So why dont they?!?

The thing is that most people at this stage have sat back and had a re-think about property. They no longer want a significant portion of their hard earned EUROs in something that could fall another 50% in value.

I think we are going to gradually migrate to a society where people will only be willing to have a certain % of their assets in one asset class, more in line with Japan / Germany etc. We will eventually save more and enjoy ourselves with better holidays etc. The days of throwing as much as one can at the family home are over for alot of people.

People on similar incomes in Canada / parts of US / Germany etc live happily in very nice homes that are worth 3x their salary. They could buy a bigger home, but they dont need / want it. Then because they all think like that, the house prices stay sane and they all have more disposable income to spend on other thing in life.

We in Ireland on the other hand have been happy enough max-ing oursleves out on property. There is no reason we should be paying more. All the ballony about how there is not enough land in Ireland / Zoning etc is ballony. The UK is about 4 times as densely populated and in many ways has stricter planning laws, yet you dont hear people making that argument over there. Our demographic structure is a bit more conducive to housing, but after years of building 5 times as many homes per head of populayion as the US we dont have that issue anymore. If a 25yr old dentist wants to buy an apt, there is definately no issue with supply!

Since 2000, all that has happened in Ireland is that a few people got very rich selling off land, second/third homes they bought 25 years ago…& a much larger generation of 25-35 year olds will now work their whole lives paying that bill off.

One feels for people who got conned into believing it was a wise thing to do and are now stuck to an apartment that wont suit their lifestyle needs beyond 5 years max. However, one gets the feeling the next generation, a generation who have seen its not a one way bet, will be less foolish. They will pay what they think is reasonable and leave them in a very comfortable position to take 2 years off work if they want to tour the world when they are 5 yrs into their mortgage etc…They have the ability to wait a very long time and waiting is what they are doing.

The days of “this place is worth X” just because people can afford to pay it are over!