A thread for the light at the end of the tunnel without Govt spin.
We know Govt agency/bank predictions are more than useless and have been for years now. Apparently we have turned a corner etc etc. Lets cut out their crap and do our own analysis.
Despite all the doom and gloom - quite justified - Ireland does have somethings going for it.
Firstly lets make it clear just what a recession is in economic terms - its is an adjustment to a new equilibrium. When this is met normal service can resume. Some factors allow us to meet this quicker the during past recessions.
The move over the past decade from from jobs for life to contract work means businesses can adjust wages far more quickly than before.
Unemployment has increased at a rate far faster than during the 1980s indicating a quicker adjustment process. This goes hand in hand with contract work especially prevalent in the construction industry.
If we get the deficit under control quickly then we can handle the debt.
If we dont the IMF will come in, the earlier the better. This isnt so bad, it could mean changes in politics here.
The US, Europe & the UK will come out of this soon driving demand for goods and services from out multinationals. All while wages go down increasing our competitiveness. This could be a lifeline for Ireland.
If we limp along for 4 or 5 years in a bad way I could foresee EU structural type funding coming back again. Considering the ECB had money in Anglo I would argue sincerely that if they fail to do this we should leave the Euro. The EU will no doubt want us to “learn a lesson” and leave us stew for a few years - thats to be expected.
Rents and house prices will come down. Commercial rents will come down. No matter about NAMA they will come down. Again increased competitveness.
Im assuming 12% plus unemployment rate and high taxes for 5 years with a double dip recession/depression for us around 2012 when we reset alot of bonds. Unemployment will probably start to come down a few years after that.
Anyone else want to give this a shot?