The light at the end of the tunnel thread!


#1

A thread for the light at the end of the tunnel without Govt spin.

We know Govt agency/bank predictions are more than useless and have been for years now. Apparently we have turned a corner etc etc. Lets cut out their crap and do our own analysis.

Despite all the doom and gloom - quite justified - Ireland does have somethings going for it.

Firstly lets make it clear just what a recession is in economic terms - its is an adjustment to a new equilibrium. When this is met normal service can resume. Some factors allow us to meet this quicker the during past recessions.

The move over the past decade from from jobs for life to contract work means businesses can adjust wages far more quickly than before.

Unemployment has increased at a rate far faster than during the 1980s indicating a quicker adjustment process. This goes hand in hand with contract work especially prevalent in the construction industry.

If we get the deficit under control quickly then we can handle the debt.

If we dont the IMF will come in, the earlier the better. This isnt so bad, it could mean changes in politics here.

The US, Europe & the UK will come out of this soon driving demand for goods and services from out multinationals. All while wages go down increasing our competitiveness. This could be a lifeline for Ireland.

If we limp along for 4 or 5 years in a bad way I could foresee EU structural type funding coming back again. Considering the ECB had money in Anglo I would argue sincerely that if they fail to do this we should leave the Euro. The EU will no doubt want us to “learn a lesson” and leave us stew for a few years - thats to be expected.

Rents and house prices will come down. Commercial rents will come down. No matter about NAMA they will come down. Again increased competitveness.

Im assuming 12% plus unemployment rate and high taxes for 5 years with a double dip recession/depression for us around 2012 when we reset alot of bonds. Unemployment will probably start to come down a few years after that.

Anyone else want to give this a shot?


#2

I think that we need to shift the focus from the macroeconomic indicators and challenges to the microeconomic indicators and opportunities. In a thread on ‘Signs of the Depression’ someone noted that there was a guy in a layby offering car washes for eight euro. I noticed a guy outside a church selling newspapers out of a van that had never been there before. I know of a number of people starting businesses now that would not have done so three years ago. The ground swell of people who are getting out there to rebuild their lives and as a result our economy is a sign the the innovation, work ethic and attitude that made us great at so many things has not been lost.


#3

You can achieve almost anything once you believe in yourself, good positive post. Let’s have more of this and to the pissimist, please… leave this one alone… plenty other ones to pess on :smiley:


#4

While I appreciate your post I think we have a few realities to deal with in this country one being that we will never stand any chance of becoming a society people choose or wish to be a part of until we stop all of the corruption and spin that goes on from the top down to the entitlement class at the bottom.
In order to attract FDI, decrease the cost of issuing soverign bonds you need in place a government who to the outside world reflect the type of values that say they are honest, fair and hardworking to improve the lives of their people not the current shite we have and on the inside look at developing the potential of our exporting industries etc. So what have we got then? Exactly, we have fuck all.


#5

We need export businesses. What you are describing will not change very much.


#6

All we have to do is export as many goods and services over the next decade as we will people and we will be back in business. :slight_smile:


#7

This is the thread you really wanted BB…

viewtopic.php?f=19&t=17199&start=0


#8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mb90AZa7YJU

Well someone had to do it. :-GC


#9

The examples I give are of people doing the most simple of things with virtually no investment needed. These are the types of people that will take money from the smallest of enterprises and over time grow in to larger enterprises. I agree entirely that exports are the key to Ireland’s success however it often concerns me that the support structures are in place to build an export focused business and not to build a successful Irish business that can then grow and succeed internationally. In the spirit of the subject matter of this site, take Daft.com, it has been very successful in the Irish marketplace, now its technology and skills can be exported while retaining the innovation in Ireland. It is not a bad thing to test your product out locally before investing in taking on the world.


#10

Double digit yoy growth in exports apparently

markiteconomics.com/MarkitFi … px?ID=6264

fxcentre.com/news.asp?2580361


#11

Pity overall traffic and volume was massacred a while ago.

irishpressreleases.ie/2009/0 … ic-report/


#12

clicks.fspeletters.com//t/AQ/AAF … aeM0w/kxCd. I just thought I would post this here, it seems as good a place as any. Talking of the future it is important to know which way the wind is actualy blowing rather hoping to kick things off using outmoded models. Now seeing some get up off their arse and tryng to set up some small business is all very well, but would it not be a bad idea to actually think ahead and see which way the world is going and move forward based on that? Of course the above link would also suggest that we should be thinking along the lines of online business’s and that would require better broadband and some sort of manufacturing base…Would be interested in people’s thoughts on above link.


#13

I am amazed at the amount of moaning here and pessimisn. I think it is no harm to spend a little time thinking about what will get us out of this mess.


#14

This I agree with in principle. However, internal services are not it.


#15

Calina,

Our exports have held up remarkably since the start fo the recession. Most of the focus here is on deflating costs to reattract “real” exports, but services have delivered all export growth over the past few years and continued to increase despite our high costs.


#16

What are the services illustrated in this graph, can anybody explain?


#17

Has that anything to do with companies moving their tax defaulting head offices here to avail of our 12 1/2% corpo tax?


#18

Me! Some of it is me!


#19

Anybody? Services?


#20

I sell IT services (programming, design, project management, maintenance, analysis) to Asia. That’s a services export.