If I’m reading it right, his world starts in 2005 and – comparing house prices, wage growth, and inflation – he determines that today’s prices are below trend. Doesn’t that assume that prices in 2005 were sustainable? And weren’t income multiples in 2005 already way above historical norms? So how can that be sustainable?
I’d imagine it was used for simplicity, because the CSO Property Price Index uses a base year of 2005=100
I understand that bit. The point is that if you use 2005 or any other year, and look at inflation and growth from then on to determine sustainability, you are assuming that your starting point was sustainable.
House hunters queue for three days at north-Dublin site
independent.ie/irish-news/in … 00800.html
Do you remember the last time Ireland had a Taoiseach whom was elected but without having to contest an general election as leader of a political party?
460k for a 108m2 semi- which is quite a ramble from the many amenities advertised in the brochure. The website, incidentally, features images mostly not of Portmarnock but of Howth and Malahide. Has been a good area though and the houses are very close to the train station.
Good luck to those who have bought - the sense of urgency/panic is understandable - but things is gone cray cray
I believe there is an annual management fee on these as well.
Seriously? Would that be temporary until the Council ‘takes it in’?
Family member lives in an estate in Meath which spent about 20 years chasing the council looking for them to take responsibility for cutting the grass etc.
Given that the Councils grant permission for these things you’d wonder why it takes them so long to take them in.
a lot of new estates have management fees now i think the council make it a condition of planning
I think it has to so with it being a gated estate so the council will not take it over.
ours doesnt even have a gate and the council still wont take it over
The councils taking over estates was an order sent from the top down.
A good solicitor would not let you buy without the management company functioning and being fully paid up.
The fear was the banks would struggle to sell repossessed and forced sale properties.
When people are falling over themselves, queuing, etc. to buy houses in a new development (as happening recently), I always assume the developer midjudged the asking price and is kicking themself that they didn’t lob a few extra 10ks on the asking price, even if that meant they took a few days or weeks to sell, rather than a few minutes.
Say, 50 houses x 20k extra each = 1 million extra.
Or is there something in it for the developer (media coverage?) that makes it worthwhile?
Probably better from a cash flow perspective to be guaranteed to get all the deposits on the day. And in the current market, failing to sell some units off plan would be a very bad look; I doubt anyone wants to risk that.
New development in Celbridge.
I like Celbridge but that seems like a lot. Mind you, I’ve said that about Celbridge, Maynooth, Leixlip several times over the past few years and been consistently proven wrong. A development of 22 houses opposite this one sold out immediately earlier this year. Must be a lot of mortgage approval letters being issued these days…
How do prices look now in comparison to 2006?
While queueing for houses etc is 2005/6-type behaviour I would have thought that prices havent yet reached the levels that I remember from back then?
And it seems to be the case that the type of bank-backed ‘investing’ that was going on back then is absent…all of which might mean that this one is going to last a lot longer…with supply as it is and immigration figures heading upwards it seems quite feasible that they could get another 5, 6 or 7 years out of this…and thats even before all the Nordies and Poles start arriving in to build Eoghan Murphy’s 90,000 social houses…where are they going to live? Plus theyre gonna need breakfast rolls…whose gonna serve them and where are they gonna live? And on and on…
It seems the last one, rather than being a lesson, was actually a dry run. They’ll have learnt lessons on how to manage it also. For anyone who doesnt own property its time to get the funk out methinks…or remain cannon fodder for the type of scum who have facilitated this…some of whom, as we all know, contribute to this site
Any FG cheerleaders are guilty. Any pro-NAMA apologists are guilty. Scum of the fucking earth.
HWP Ltd are delighted to introduce to the market this incredible opportunity for an astute investor, or alternatively for the construction of that dream home in the ideal location.
construct a dream home, there
I would say that as this has quiet a few years left to run (to echo your own sentiments), it’d be silly to get out now. Give it 2 to 3 years more perhaps?
I’m not sure it’s that simple.
There were several causes last time round, but one of them was pro-cyclical economic policy from FF.
Since then we have pro-cyclical economic policy from the ECB.
With the benefit of foresight and unlimited fiscal space, the correct response would have been to cushion the crash by diverting spare construction capacity towards building houses and apartments in Dublin. Costs would have dropped and the industry could have mooched along more efficiently building 10,000 houses a year or whatever. Who would have bought them with the banks busted? Well, those houses/apartments could be been paid for by the State, rebuilding it’s social housing stock. The State could then have pushed along the repos and re-housed the newly “homeless” in brand new social housing that it owned. If it was too much to see the formerly prudent buy up the repo’d stock, it could have been bought as social housing stock and allocated strictly according to need . As the economy recovered, social tenants in private stock would be replaced by employed renters, and we’d be in a position of a bit more govt debt but a more sustainable position with less of the productive capacity of the country going to rent-seeking.
But whatever about the domestic acceptability of that approach, the Germans would have never allowed it. Look at Greece, it’s still fucked.
The exortation was “For anyone who doesnt own property its time to get the funk out methinks”?
After years of watching from the sidelines (and renting), me and the missus signed contracts to buy a house today. Okay, we missed the trough of the market by a wide margin, but we can well afford the house in question and I think we’re in for a couple more years of steepish increases at least, and then… maybe more increases, or a big bust (fnar fnar)? Of course if Trump & Kim throw their toys out of the pram and kick off WW3, all bets are off.