The madness is returning


#1603

My recently moved-in neighbours are selling up. They’ve been there 30 months and the only alteration I know of is the grass is longer, with fresh dog poo. Asking price is 30% above purchase price, €600k for a 3-bed ex-corpo shitbox. Another 24 months like this would see us in height-of-the-boom territory.


#1604

Not wtf but… FEAR!


#1605

I’d be dubious about the numbers as well. In fact, you could say it’s a:

Book lack in Ongar.

I’ll get my coat.


#1606

Get yer party hats and stemware

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Davzic5W0AAij_o.jpg:small


#1607

#1608

rte.ie/news/business/2018/0510/962529-philip-lane-on-house-prices/


#1609

Some things mature better with time (but not always house prices).

Archived! :wink:


#1610

56 pages of new housing estates by DNG alone in SBPost yesterday.


#1611

Here we go again.


#1612

Company makes more money renting homes in Dublin than Los Angeles, California

A US property giant is making more money per apartment rented in Dublin than it is in Los Angeles.

Kennedy Wilson has said it rents properties in the capital for an average of €2,049 per month.

The company makes far less in the Greater Los Angeles area, where it takes in €1,731 per month on average for an apartment, the Independent reports.

The figures show that so-called ‘cuckoo funds’ can make more money in Ireland that lavish US destinations.

Families in Ireland are increasingly being muscled out of the renting market by the funds - which tend to be big investors buying housing units in bulk and in cash.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/company-makes-more-money-renting-15008296


#1613

Is this the beginning of another soft landing?


#1614

Will there be a crash? I think so, but are the IMF coming back because of it ? no. A simple house price crash while ZIRP and CB rules remain won’t mean that IMO.


#1615

That Indo piece claims tighter lending controls are the cause of the price slowdown. But have the lending rules actually changed lately? The most recent Daft house price report from end of March says that new supply is the singular cause of the moderation. Show graphs of house prices against supply going back to 2007, Ronan Lyons makes the case that 4,500 houses for sale – the level we are at right now – corresponds to the turning point between rising and falling prices.


#1616

So what are the projected volumes of new builds coming to market this year, anyone know? Would 9k for sale by September mean much bigger price falls by year end? The usual Correlation and causation warnings apply but I’m sure this isn’t new to Ronan.


#1617

Lets suppose we did get an extended period of stable prices, i.e. ± 2%pa, what effect would this have on accidental landlords who are tolerating ownership because of capital gains - might it trigger sales?


#1618

When MSM say tighter lending controls, I think they really mean, lending and prices are growing with wage inflation.

Obviously this is great, but doesn’t create a sexy headline


#1619

I think +2% might be optimistic.
With the global slowdown already in motion, the economy is looking vulnerable again. Our cosy relationship with US big data could be on thin ice…


How this affects our property market is hard to call.


#1620

Latest CSO shows Dublin all residential down 0.3% in March (+1.2% YoY)

Tide seems to be turning a little now, only because just like 2007 the majority simply can’t earn enough over a sustainable period to afford these prices.

Any kind of trend will then feed into Bank’s models/loan loss forecasts for H2 and make them even more cautious with their Net lending targets.


#1621

Dublin down five months in a row. I reckon another two months and Dublin residential yearly increase will turn negative. Rest of the country is starting to flatten too.


#1622

If the banks reign in lending, as suggested above were headed for a negative feedback loop which won’t be pretty - old fashioned recession without a banking collapse? Missed the boat with AIB sale?