The National Debt


At it’s most simple - what do you do when you have loads of money, what do you do when you’re borrowing to keep your head above water. Acting like there’s no difference is freeman-style head in the sand lunacy.


In Ireland there is never the right time to manage your affairs sensibly, and build a buffer of economic self sufficiency. There is always an excuse.


I understand the theory (well, some of it, at least at a superficial level), I’m saying that in practice it’s bollocks.

For practical purposes macroeconomics is a rich minestrone soup from which politicians can scoop out whatever crouton or vegetable supports their chosen policy.


Well I’m with you on that 8DD


The NPRF ( Pension reserved) hit €21bn cash and assets in late 2008 before it was dipped into to buy AIB and BoI.

It dropped as low as €14bn in late 2012 but recovered smartly after the troika went away.

It recovered to €20bn by early 2014. Much was then transferred to an SWF called ISIF which claims to have … ment-fund/

It is back up to €21bn again


A very good article that takes apart a chunk of the macro “theory” masquerading as science…

"How Economists Try to Naturalise Terrible Policies and Disappear Into Their Own Theories" … ories.html


GDP growth in Q3 was running at 7% annualised so the 2015 EBR as a % of GDP ( to pay for the supplementary estimates) and the Debt/GDP ratio improved yet further. Posibly as low as 98% at the end of Q4 now.


**John Cryan, Deutsche Bank’s new CEO, said recently: “I have no idea why I was offered a contract with a bonus in it because I promise you, I will not work any harder or any less in any year, in any day because someone is going to pay me more or less.” **

**Meanwhile here, the gouging continues:

“National Treasury Management Agency staff set for over €710,000 in bonuses**”


A basic salary north of €4m does kind of make bonuses irrelevant.

But hey fair comparison :slight_smile:


One prediction is that the Debt/GDP ratio at end Q4 (CSO release due by mid Feb with GDP stats) could be nearer 97% than 98%.


That is really a comical comparison.

Yeah the CEO may make some appeasing comment about not needing a bonus but his staff definitely do want them - deutsche bonus pool for 2014 was €2.7bn.


Noonan would be well advised, what with an election on, to get Ireland removed from the Excess Debt and Excess Deficit procedures in January at the Finmin. Excess Debt is easy as we are done with it in a fortnight and should exit automatically. Excess Deficit should be automatic but it is not seemingly.

After all, Ireland now has a lower excess debt (and higher compliance) than France. Ireland also has a less worse Excessive Deficit roadmap than France as well. We passed them out around mid 2015 on both counts.

Ireland has a lower Debt/GDP ratio than France right now and will be 10% below France by end 2016.


One week into the new year and the NTMA already offloaded a €3bn 10 year bond at around 1.15% interest.

This will cover [ of their entire borrowing requirement for the year**33-50%* * ( as some EU loans come up for due repayment mainly.

As the Bid/Offer ration was well over 3x they should now look at retiring the 3 bilateral loans due in 2019/20 or so in this calendar year given how benign the placement environment is (and how high their 2019 and 2020 scheduled repayments overall). I’m sure teh Brits and Swedes would be thankful for the prompt cash payment. :slight_smile:


1.156% is a stunning price to acheive … mark-bond/


It would not be neighbourly of us* to leave the UK in an ongoing excessive deficit procedure and with a higher debt to gdp ratio at end 2016 than we have, as will be the case. *

We should accelerate the full payment of the bilateral loans (UK Sweden and Denmark) to 2016 and raise the funds ourselves. That will leave us with no non € debt as well. Handy given how the bloody € is falling steadily nowadays. :frowning:

We are technically* out of all the excessive debt and excessive deficit procedures now* and free to take this measure upon ourselves on our own initiative, formally we should be out in Feb when the final Q4 GDP numbers come in.

We owe the UK around 10% of their projected 2016-2017 ( April - April) deficit of UK£40bn and the money will not be refused. We would be no worse off as we can easily raise it on the debt market ourselves.

Uk position > … le-it.html and they got themselves into trouble not least for bailing out BOSI and Ulster after their Irish antics bankrupted them as well as giving us a digout.


There is (I believe) some complexity about this contractually. Early repayment of one can trigger early repayment of all which has its own complexities.

NTMA press releases should always be taken with a LARGE grain of salt. It makes them look important to say they need to raise €10bn a year (gross of course). A lot of this year’s funding will be used to quietly retire maturing debt to smooth repayment profiles over the next number of years.

For example from their annual report last year:


If he retires, the great and the good appear to have already selected Simon Coveney as their man in black. :arrow_right:


You’d don’t think they’ll be able to roll it? :confused:


My favored government would return - the Troika! 8DD