The National Debt


#401

You may think the European Commission is a toothless tiger (try telling that to a Greek!) but debt reduction does happen.

Some even managed a small reduction in nominal amounts of debt, if that interests you.
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents … 4445be272a

Of course, a State which can borrow in its own currency always has the option of printing money to pay off its debts and will never be forced into “austerity” because of its public debt but that game is officially over for countries that joined the Euro. The Italians just don’t want to believe it.

Not that we ever had that money-printing luxury in any case. For most of our history we stayed on par with Sterling and when we tried borrowing in punts on a large scale in the 1980s, we found out the hard way how the markets treat those who depend on foreign loans. :cry:


#402

Well, Interest payable in 2018 on our large national debt is around the €6bn mark.

In 1993 we owed fuck all (relatively) but we paid a lot more interest on that.

oireachtas.ie/en/debates/de … B7%5D=debt

£2,260 million was €2.9bn in 1993. 25 years later we pay around twice that but we have a much larger economy and are part of the Eurozone. We were paying over 8% interest only a few years ago on 20 year bonds issued around 1993.


#403

ANNUAL REPORT ON PUBLIC DEBT IN IRELAND
finance.gov.ie/wp-content/u … d-2018.pdf

Well worth a read.


#404

Pity there’s been 150BN of new debt laid down in the last 10 years. There’s literally zero chance of no recession in the next few years. The Pinkshirts/Zanu-FF will act all shocked of course when the IMF come back - blame Brexit, Trump, global warming maybe. Anything but their cowardliness during the banking crisis.

Year Surplus/Deficit Mns
2008 -13,119
2009 -23,467
2010 -53,712
2011 -21,877
2012 -14,114
2013 -11,027
2014 -7,045
2015 -5,014
2016 -1,466
2017 -730


#405

ntma.ie/news/2018/12/13/ntma … -for-2019/

€15bn to redeem in 2019 and €13bn is already raised so all remaining debt redemptions in 2019 will be fully funded in a month and the NTMA will then raise €14-16bn towards the exceptionally high 2020 redemptions over the rest of 2019.

The government is expected to fund itself, no borrowing requirement is forecast in 2019 or 2020.

Borrowing is to drop hugely in 2020 itself, around €9bn will be required at most, the lowest amount in many many years.


#406

At what interest rate will future requirements be borrowed at ?

bbc.com/news/business-46552147


#407

Nobody knows. Even those whose job is it to predict interest rates. You had one job, etc.


#408

Interest rates on borrowings will remain where they are today except.

  1. In the case of economic shocks (Italy nowadays. possibly Brexit will cause issues here)
  2. If the ECB base rate starts to rise, expected in around a years time.

Actually I already suspect that Ireland is fully funded for 2019 bond redemptions but that is not official yet. I am certain we will be by January.

I also think a large cashout from NAMA is being quietly held over to smooth the waters if the Brexit farrago becomes a critical issue and those fucking dopes do crash out in March.


#409

Good to see
The rules being applied…

Revenue issues tax demand of over €1.6bn to pharma giant Perrigo
irishtimes.com/business/hea … -1.3738702

It’s being contested…and it will be a while before the result is known.


#410

Still, it would pay off half our debt due in 2021. :slight_smile:


#411

So the government did balance the books and that makes it two years on the bounce with no increase in debt owing to government expenditure. The NTMA started off the year with more cash than they planned to hold on hand at this point in time.

A number of €100m class capital projects that need final cabinet approval before a tender is finalised, according to expenditure rules, are deliberately being held back pending Brexit.

One such delay is with 3 major roads in Sligo Limerick and Mayo which will not get cabinet approval until after Brexit. I understand that up to 8 capital projects costing a minimum of €100m each are in never never land now.


#412

I was right, the NTMA started off the year with €15.3bn , the country is forecast to run at a surplus this year and debt redemption is below €15bn in 2019.

We were fully funded for the year upon starting the year, as I suspected a month back.

Then we borrowed around 1/4 of our high 2020 requirements yesterday (which are around €17bn) leaving another €13bn to raise from now to september 2020.

The rate on the €4bn borrowed yesterday was 1.12% for 10 years. Considering the ECB is not buying anymore that is a rather good rate IMO. There is an auction in Feb for another €2bn or a tad more than €2bn perhaps and then nothing more until Brexit settles down some.


#413

The government has jammed very very hard on the expenditure brakes in the past month. A new ad hoc version of Enda Kennys 2011 era “Economic Management Council” cabinet sub committee has been formed with just Donohoe and Varadkar and their senior officials on it. None of your Creeds and Coveneys and the ordinary country blueshirt class of minister. :slight_smile:

They are severely spooked by Brexit and also by the chronic mismanagement of the Childrens Hospital project/contract and seemingly there is also some issue with PPPs and also with a department of Finance profile (unpublished) that has gone somehow wrong in the past 2 months. We’ll see when the returns come out week after next and the annual dept of Finance income and expenditure profile is also due out in February and is likely to project an small overall deficit in 2019 rather than a surplus as was predicted at budget time.

Under Capital Expenditure rules in force for many years now it has been a requirement that every Capital Project costing over €100m is to be presented for cabinet approval. On monday last Shane Ross had submitted one such project to cabinet and announced to Sligo County Council that he would be coming up for sod turning etc on this road project.

Much to Shanes surprise the item never made the cabinet agenda, Leos new EMC killed it off and no doubt they told Ross (who has an ever building pipeline of €100m+ class capital expenditure projects) he is not to submit any more of these to cabinet without prior advance permission from PER and this EMC nua.

This was the story before the cabinet meeting.

midwestradio.ie/index.php/n … his-sunday

This was the story after the cabinet meeting.

midwestradio.ie/index.php/n … h-february

It will be interesting to see whether they direct ministers to can capital projects that currently require ministerial approval only, these are costed at €20m-€99m and are not brought to cabinet. The problem with issuing such a directive is that everybody will soon know about it and it might frighten the horses entirely. :slight_smile:


#414

rte.ie/news/business/2019/0201/1026875-irish-strategic-investment-fund/


#415

Ironically, the exact time to be building a children’s hospital is when you can’t “afford” it because the economiy is in recession.

If sane beancounters were in charge they would kick the children’s hospital can down the road a few years until the next crash.


#416

I’m sure our politicians have it all in hand, nothing to worry about


#417

If there’s a no deal Brexit, this hospital project might turn into a stroke of genius: helicopter money just when we need it. :bulb:
But right now, the thing is not only pro-cyclical, it is diverting construction capacity away from housing where there is dire need. How do they keep a straight face when blaming the cost overruns on inflation in the construction sector? And watch them cave in to the nurses, although that (after the Gardai) will destroy the public sector pay deal.


#418

It is no helicopter lift, that pack of serially dodgy chancers BAM will have the money sent to their Dutch mothership as fast as they can. The resignation of the muppet chairing the hospital farrago will make no difference.

The cost overrun on the Childrens hospital alone is now 2 full years capital budget for the HSE and important projects like the Emergency Department in UCHG have been kicked back to 2020 absolute earliest while money is robbed from every other capital allocation to cover this fiasco. :frowning:

More than likely the National Broadband Plan will be the main headline casualty, there are too many variables in McCourts proposal that smell of cost overruns and permasubsidy costs. But killing the NBP will only free up a smidge of what the childrens hospital will cost on top of the original contract.

Another billion will have to be found from the 2019-2021 capital envelope, €333m a year. Put simply, this farrago is Fine Gaels equivalent of ‘Lehmans’ and we will all know that only too well for the next 5 years. :frowning:


#419

Budget 2019: Who still owes more – the Irish or the Greeks?
irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-2019-who-still-owes-more-the-irish-or-the-greeks-1.3625800

National debt, was € 225 billion now €189 billion.
Debt to GDP vs GNI* (as more accurate measure). Truth probably in the middle.
Debt per capita @ €42,800


#420

The Republic pays out €14 million a day or €5.2 billion a year in interest to service the national debt, new figures show.

The CSO’s “Government Finance Statistics” report shows Government debt rose to €206 billion last year, up from €201 billion in 2017, and remains one of the highest per-capita debt burdens in Europe.

While debt as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) has been falling - it dropped to just under 65 per cent last year - the absolute level of debt has remained eleveated since the crash, leaving the State vulnerable to sudden shocks.