The National Debt


#441

The Apple Money could be the worst 13 Billion windfall ever. No American company will ever again trust our tax offer.

GGD is now 214.3 Bn. Euro. AIB’s current market cap is less than 11 Billion so the State’s remaining 70% might be worth 9 Billion on a very good day (we may have missed that boat). NAMA is expected to return 3.5 Billion after 2021. AIB and NAMA combined would get GGD down close to, but not below, 200 Billion Euro.

When the sun is shining, it seems we are untouchable, and credit to the NTMA for organising our debt profile to minimise our exposure. They managed to raise 4 Billion at 1.53% with their 2050 bond today. That’ll pay for rural broadband. :smirk:
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0509/1048357-irish-bond-auction/

So why worry? If we were some wonderous exception, I’d be grateful and keep my fingers crossed, but we are part of a bigger pattern that is too weird to last. Greece is borrowing at lower rates than the US Treasury! ! ! I defy anyone to say that is sustainable.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/greek-bonds-now-yield-less-than-treasurys-and-thats-as-irrational-as-it-was-in-2007-2019-05-08?mod=newsviewer_click was


#442

The debt is to drop to around €200bn in 2020 and realistically the 3 windfalls I listed, if they came in, would be about 2021 and could result in a debt reduction to €180bn by 2022.

I am not comfortable with a debt over 40% of GDP or €150bn, (€150bn NET) whichever is smallest.

We have a long way to go to get anywhere near that and all we have done since around 2013 is stabilise the Gross debt at around €200bn


#443

With this sort of interest they should be looking at a 20 year syndication next month as it would appear they can get it off with a coupon around 0.95%. Maybe not quite €4bn but there should be enough interest for €2bn of issuance and a nicely positioned new benchmark rate.

The Morkesh indicate that they would accept a 1.4% yield on a 30 year now.

They should be looking at issuing another ~€8bn between now and October in case there is a spike post Brexit. 2020 will be a very quiet year and almost no bonds need issue that year at all given we have a sort of holiday in 2021.


#444

Just a quick one, is the drop to €200bn in 2020 due to NTMA debt restructuring/bond resissuance or some other factor?


#445

It is because the NTMA have a payment holday in 2021 and will not be raising funds (as usual) for the following years redemptions while at the same time they are paying off near €20bn in old debt in 2020

Running down the cash pile on hand is what it is. They start rebuilding the cash pile in 2021 to deal with 2022 redemptions.

End 2020 will (uniquely) look very good, the debt GDP ratio then is forecast at 56% of GDP, near €20bn paid off in 2020 and minimal cash at hand as no debt is to be redeemed in 2021 compared to recent years. If any of the listed windfalls come in in late 2020 it will be less than €200bn, EG a NAMA windup and disbursal. The debt GDP ratio could even hit 55% then.

Both the ratio and debt will rise in 2021 absent a windfall as we must prefund 2022 redemption of 3% of GDP and the economy may not grow much that year for example. But we roll the same redemption rate in following years, around 3% of GDP each so it is a one off increase.


#446

Our EFSF debts. These amount to €20bn or 10% of the national debt. We have ESM debts too.

(in € '000) 31.12.2017 31.12.2016
Loans under EFSF 1

  • to Ireland 4,251,265 4,225,119
  • to Portugal 7,175,315 7,167,124
    Loans under EFSF 2.1
  • to Ireland 14,351,622 14,334,069
  • to Portugal 20,344,175 20,329,844
  • to Greece 137,436,481 136,083,145
    Loans to euro area Member States 183,558,858 182,139,301

As we can see 70% of the EFSF debts of around €200bn are unlikely to be repaid and are not going to be refinanced by other means by the sovereign involved. The EFSF was meant to be ‘temporary’ unlike the ESM which is permanent.

Ireland could refinance EFSF as sovereign debt from 2021 onwards when some are to be rolled over (at least we seem to intend a rollover) . We pay 1.7% interest on these ( at least, it could be more) and we could replace them with a mixture of 10 and 20 year bonds where we save a few quid interest going forward. If you refinance €2bn a year at our current 10 to 20 year rates between 0.6% to 1.0% you might save 0.7% or 70bp in interest per €2bn refi per annum or €14m per annum, small beer in the overall scheme of things but still beer. A note on EFSF and ESM rates here. > https://www.esm.europa.eu/lending-rates ESM Loans are cheaper and likely will never be refinanced before eventual expiry.

However the interesting bit is our hard investment in the EFSF. Against the €184bn of EFSF loans the Eurozone members paid in €28bn capital and we paid in €0.5bn of that.

Were Ireland and Portugal tro refinance their EFSF loans as sovereign it could result in a 30% reduction in the size of the EFSF and a refund of 30% of our investment, c €150m, as well as the annual savings on interest payments above. In theory, anyway, we get €5m back for every 1% reduction (or €2bn) in the size of the overall EFSF itself whether we or the Portugese do it.

We ‘invested’ another €2bn in the ESM (again that is IIRC) but as that is a permanent mechanism we are unlikely to see much or indeed any of that ever coming back to us as a return to shareholder. Not in my lifetime anyway. :slight_smile:

Combined, we can see that 1-2% of our total national debt was incurred merely so that we could ‘invest’ in these 2 bailout mechanisms as a shareholder. It would be nice to begin the wind down process on the EFSF, preferably next year if low rates hold. Our overall debt will still be below 60% of GDP even if we borrowed €10bn specifically to refinance EFSF bonds due to rollover.


#447

Just a note.

Debt/GDP projections around budget 2017 were that the debt/ratio would drop below 60% by end 2020 and we would exit Eurozone enforcement thereafter.

Recent (as in last the 6 months) projections have been much nicer, the ratio is projected to fall to 56% by end 2020 right now. However I consider this scenario to be most unlikely and I would be happy with 59.9% at the end of 2020 myself given the state of the UK economy and the freefall in iPhone sales right now.

For now we can but smile at this debt/gdp projection from the NTMA and all hope it actually gets under 60% at the end of 2020 and then stays down there given all the headwinds out there and the verifiable lack of a big windfall landing in the exchequer in cash.

https://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/funding-and-debt-management/investor-relations/irish-economy

Key Economic Figures.

2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F

64.8 % 61.1 55.8% 55.4 53.2 51.6

LUCKILY Eurozone QE kicks back in soon as repurchases and the ECB will be buying more of our bonds in 2021 and 2022 because our capital key or ‘weight’ in the Eurozone has recently increased so they must adjust their holdings of Irish Paper upwards some.


#448

This is good news, but it won’t get anyone elected. Spending money gets people elected


#449

2Pack is right to question the NTMA projection and to say the goal should be to get under 60% by 2020 and stay there.

The improvement is all about GDP, the denominator, not the numerator - our government’s debt which will not shrink because there is no political will although it leaves us very exposed to risks,from Brexit and Trump to unpredictable events (Straits of Hormuz?).

When the next crisis hits, the markets will say our GDP growth is irrelevant because we don’t have the power to increase taxes in line with GDP growth. Look how fast the government has run away from the opportunity to collect more property tax. Did any candidate in the local elections say they would not cut the LPT?


#450

For many, it’s very difficult to take the Irish GDP figures seriously post Leprechaun Economics

But Income taxes are growing YoY which is making some inroads to getting the house in order.