The National Debt


#41

*“I would suspect that as time has gone on it has become abundantly clear that there are so many unexploded land mines in Anglo that the government had to throw something on it,” *

i’m sorry bit has no one picked up the anglo - angola thing yet? god knows it was biffo himself who coined the phrase… & he knows about this kinda shit!


#42

Plenty of snorts of derision and sneers of the usual “piggies at the trough bit”, but those piggies in ICTU are asking for a 48% rate of tax on the well-off, coupled with a national recovery bond.

The idea is to get Irish citizens to loan money to the nation, rather than foreigners who will demand excessive interest.


#43

sure I`ll lend them money when they start spending it sensibly. Currently I couldnt morally justify giving them my money so they can hand it to the banks or give people who should be jailed golden handshakes.

So I`ll snort snort snort!! :smiley:


#44

Goodbodys 16.02.09


#45

europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAct … anguage=en

Govt forecasts for '09
Ireland - 9.5%
Greece - 3.7%
Spain - 5.8%
France - 4.4%
Latvia - 5%
Malta - 3.5%

Its atrocious.


#46

Can anyone tell me what the milestones are for judging the government figures. If Jan Car revenue fell off a cliff are we heading for the greater than -20Bn that Jim Power reckons we are facing this year. I have no doubt we are but I’d like to know what metrics are released and when, so we can get a handle on the extent of the problem. I remember last year the graph of projected overall revenue against actual and the actual falling through the floor. For example when should we see the total January tax take and are seasonally adjusted government expenditure released on a regular basis.


#47

To be fair, we still have a better credit rating than Belize, so I think this article needs a bit of balance!

Ireland Loses AAA Rating at S&P on Deficit, Slump (Update2)
bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a_zTYyzcF8uU&refer=europe


#48

What are the numbers post budget , does the international market believe we are addressing our issues or not …and have they priced that ??

eg CDS spreads and Bund premium.


#49

Mostly pre priced in. Bund spread over 5y is nowabout 190-200 for ten year 220 and rising again. CDS last night close was c 230, again rising. And the banks are tanking again. AIB/BOI down 10-15%


#50

Getting back on topic to the national debt. The fact that we’re now going to issue 90bn of bonds to purchase these toxic loans from the banks means the national debt will quadruple in size.

My personal feeling is the national debt is not mine and I dont want my taxes used to service it or pay it off. Therefore Im considering emigrating and taking my money with me.

The other alternative is stay here but just refuse to pay any tax. When they come for me, just fire a few rounds over their heads until they get the message. IM NOT PAYING FOR FIANNA FAILS MISTAKES!


#51

+1


#52

cnbc.com/id/30308959

CNBC.com says we’re #1, using

as a source


#53

See here for debagging:
viewtopic.php?f=19&t=20968


#54

On a more pressing matter than transfer pricing and asset parking . The markets are becoming unenamoured of this constant debt issuance .

rte.ie/business/2009/0421/ntma.html

Billion from bonds but demand ‘weak’
Tuesday, 21 April 2009 16:10

The yields on comparable issue in Q1 were

ntma.ie/Publications/2009/QI … elease.pdf

4% Treasury Bond 2014 – raised €6 billion at a yield of 4.069%
4½% Treasury Bond 2020 – raised €900 million at a yield of 5.808% ( March)

However they were all well oversubscribed unlike this one !!!


#55

Country Tom opens his big mouth about an Infrastructure Bond and the cost of issuing new debt spiked by well over 100bp , can we simply shoot him now ???

100bp+ premium on €40bn of debt over 10 years is over €4bn extra .

250bp , if that, is €10bn . Shut up Tom :frowning: !

independent.ie/business/iris … 32538.html

By Brendan Keenan

Friday May 08 2009


#56

I’m not sure…

First the Farmers, then the PDs, now the CIF… If you shot Tom, the dead would probably rise in protest and become flesh eating zombies… :nin


#57

Toms membership are the undead.


#58

Good idea. We should strafe his funeral too. To be sure to be sure.


#59

ntma.ie/Publications/2009/Ir … ne2009.pdf

€1.75bn to be raised tomorrow in 3 and 5 year money. After the latest downgrade do you think there will still be a decent cover and will we have to pay more.


#60

I think the end game is approaching. The game at the moment is that the state issues bonds, which are either bought by the Irish banks on instruction from their shareholder (the Government of Ireland), and they are then recycled to the ECB under their quant easing program, or the short dated stuff is bought by brave yield chasers. The important fact here is that issuing 3mth bonds, does not address the finance needs of the state in the current year. That’s the current game.

The end game, which is not far away, is that the ECB ceases to repro the Irish Government Bonds on the basis that sufficient liquidity is available in the market (and BTW to repro State bonds breaks their charter) , the short bond investors take their money off the table, and the Irish Government cant access debt, regardless of premium.

What happens next? I’m not sure but the Government is then out of cash so either a third party international finance institution provides liquidity under severe conditions, (read IMF or ECB), the state defaults setting off an international panic which will make Lemans look like chicken feed, or the Irish people take control and administer their own medicine(least likely IMHO). Either which way not pretty.

Timeline - September 09.