The National Debt


#582

NTMA wants a syndicated issue this week, to frontload their still quite onerous cash requirements for the remainder of the year.

I am thinking around €12-15bn would be a good idea while sovereign issuance in Europe is fluid at present. The assumption is that some ECB programme or other will mop a whole lot of this right up so a low coupon (less than 1%) is not out of the question here.

Over the rest of the year they will need at least €25bn including a large €9bn redemption in October. Perhaps as much as €30bn.

We have no idea how much of a deficit they are planning on financing in 2021 but it sure won’t be a surplus and Brexit will also be a factor by then.


#583

This weeks issue turned out to be €6bn for 10 years with a coupon of 0.3% or so. Considering the impending retirement of 5% coupon paper in October (€6bn too) they are replacing an issue they pay €300m a year in interest on, alone, with a new issue that costs a mere €15m a year in interest.

Not sure how much of the issue went to the ECB programmes but the bids were generous, 10x or so. Right now we are as far from a sovereign debt crisis as you can get.