The National Debt


I use GDP as this is the standard international comparison and this is the key metric that delineates solvency on the sovereign level. GNI is a bit of a private metric (for us Irish) and we do not have a GNI projection for 2020 from anyone, only GDP drops have been forecast.

So, accepting we do NOT know whether GNI* is more affected than GDP by the Covid crisis I can only say this much. ** _ GNI* was €214bn in 2019 and the Debt was €204bn, a Debt/GNI* ratio of around 97%. _ **

And a rise in borrowing of €30bn will increase the Debt/GNI* ratio to around 113% without adjusting for falls in GNI* which will result in a worse Debt/GNI* ratio than 113%…perhaps up to 130%.

That enough gloomys and woes lads ??? :smiley: That chart is hot off the press this morning and more GDP and GNI stats are available here.