The Next Six Months

So, in the spirit of provocation and idle (though not financially, unfortunately) speculation, how do pinsters see the next six months going, Dublin-property wise?

The summer (?) is over and the fabled AIPs obtained before the new CB rules are meant to be running out, so it might be opportune to hear some more predictions and/or to see if bears are staying bearish and bulls bullish. Would a consensus view be stable prices? Or will the government seek to push prices even higher with some ‘helping the first-time buyer’ bullshit around budget time? I suspect they won’t, but wouldn’t be surprised if they did - obviously.

My two cents worth, and I’m looking specifically at the north Dublin market >€500k.

October: I think Dublin stock goes over 6,000 in October, with asking prices softening marginally (essentially -€10-20k on houses around €600-700k)

March: Dublin stock goes to 6,500 in March, with asking prices softening a more meaningful €50-75k versus now on properties €600-700k, so 10% decline in asking prices.

The fact that you’ll see little, if not upward pressure on €150-350k houses which make up the bulk of transactions means I expect asking prices across the Dublin market will only be down around 2%.

… but then the downward pressure continues on properties >€400k through 2016 as reality kicks in that incomes are going to struggle to allow LTIs to work.

Given PPR will have a lag, I’d actually expected very little movement on the March 2016 vs March 2015 PPR numbers

There will be a surge in demand in SoCoDu which will lead to a short term rise in prices. This will result in a big uptick in the supply of properties in this area which will then sit for longer than expected as there’s little support behind the Q3/Q4 demand. Then the market will stall again.

The government will continue to lose the PR battle re the “homeless crisis”. We will reach Peak David Hall. There’ll be a change in Leinster house and we’ll repeat the mistakes of the last boom. 8DD

Up.

It’s Dublin.

If you’re selling it’s a good news storey. If you’re buying it’s a bad news storey. Until you’ve bought. Then it becomes a good news storey. If you’re staying put it doesn’t make a blind bit of difference.

Depends on global economy.

DING! DING! DING -* We have a winner!* 8DD

Sellers can wait just as long as buyers as the last few years have proven. Prices may fall at the top end but will probably be flat otherwise.

Despite being overvalued and buyers not being able to afford a lot of the stock available, prices will be nice and sticky.

Not in Dublin myself but of the 3 wildly optimistic asking prices I’ve been interested in this year. Two have been pulled despite offers below asking. The last one remains for sale having gone sale agreed above asking, which fell through. It’s now got an offer at asking but the vendor is holding out for more.

@ixus: The doomsday clock is now at 1 minute to midnight. viewtopic.php?p=842153#p842153

The crash provided a unique buying opportunity, some took it, most didn’t.
In the next 6 months I don’t see anything significant happening.
These runs typically last longer than anyone expects so that eventually even the bears give up and get sucked in.

For me the interesting question is whether prices can be supported as sales volumes normalise (increase) without easing of the current CB credit restrictions.

This is the long view of national credit supply.

https://s29.postimg.org/okyfd99lz/Screen_Shot_2015_08_20_at_10_28_07.png

From the Central Bank Q3 2015 Bulletin
centralbank.ie/press-area/pr … 32015.aspx
2015 GDP €197bn
2015 GNP €169bn
2015 Personal Consumption Expenditure (current not capital formation) shown as €89bn

Private Sector total Debt €131bn. (77% of GNP)
of which €114bn housing related

GDP/GNP is growing at about 4% p.a. nominal
Outstanding Debt is falling at about 3% p.a.

I don’t think we are that far away from the end of deleveraging of private sector debt.
To get to equilibrium in terms of private sector debt to GDP, at some stage over next few years (maybe not six months), private sector debt stock will grow in line with nominal growth GNP.
My opinion is flat to moderately rising prices over next 2 to 3 years.

Agreed. I don’t think the new restrictions will have much effect, at least in 2015. Maybe in 2016 vendors will accept that people don’t have the funding anymore to buy property at the same prices as 2015. Expect a bit of a stalemate and lot of stuff in the < €500k bracket not shifting, and only the houses that have to being sold.

Over the next 6 months to 1 year - increasingly high rents in Dublin due to an increasing job-pull to Dublin - will feed in to modest Dublin salary increases - which will in turn feed in to higher Dublin rents, and start to prop up the house prices in the 300-450k market.
It’s just my opinion, but it’s looking realistic at the moment.

If a couple get a 1000euro pay rise, each, this year in Dublin (not unrealistic for public or private sector) - that would increase their LTI limit by 7k. You could see the same again the following year. It generates modest upward pressure of 15k every two years while Dublin’s economy goes well.

Even if that didn’t happen - I can’t see the Gubbernment not doing something in the budget to increase people’s net pay noticeably.
Which will drive rents quite a bit.
Which will drive house prices by a little.

I acknowledge that the LTV restrictions are a brake on the house price rocket, but anything that falls under the purchasing power limit of a Dublin couple earning 100k between them (not unrealistic in a lot of Dublin) will be sticky, and will edge up with wage increases.
Which is why I think the 350-450k house won’t move too much, but the 500+k house will be a lot less sticky.

Not for the ordinary decent folk buying a PPR it didn’t (since state manipulation successfully constrained what was let drip onto the market).

Where I want it to go and where it’s going to go are different. My interest is a fall in prices by about 20% so I can afford what I want in SoCoDu.

What will probably happen is what others have said- sticky prices in Dublin given vendor expectations. I expect slower volume of sales YoY because of new CBI regs but also I believe (and know of) a lot of people who rushed to buy in the first half of the year.

I think slight drops will take place in actual sale prices achieved in Dublin starting in Jan but it won’t be over 10% until end summer 2016.

Boo Hoo :frowning:

Oh- and I think executor sales where the place needs a gut job or considerable refurb will be virtually non-existent. I predict maybe 2 sales in Dublin of “fixer-uppers”.

My goodness if anything that clearly indicates that is not a normal situation.

Whom are these sellers with multi-annual waiting capacity?

I would say the Banks, as in it’s it a fix, a rig, a mutated market.
A State sponsored market manipulation via multi staged proxies.

There were a number of fixer uppers on the market in the last 6 months in SoCoDu. They just weren’t priced as fixer uppers, sadly.

Tell me about it. I viewed quite a few of them, each more depressing than the last. The one that sent me over the edge was 980 sq. feet in Clonskeagh with no central heating ever installed. Asking was 550. :unamused: Suffice to say we let our mortgage approval lapse and took a gamble the next 12 months will be better. BTW Open Window - where is the “roll the dice” emoticon?..

Believe me I’ve encountered plenty. I wish it weren’t the case as I’ve seen multiple properties pulled despite reasonable offers and others pulled due to a lack of interest (probably due to astronomical asking prices).

Whom you ask.
There was the BTL Landlord looking to free up some cash who decided he’d go back to renting because he wasn’t getting his desired price.
There was another BLT Landlord who did the exact same thing.
There was the bachelor I spoke to directly who was selling himself. Under pressure from the bank to sell apparently. The house was up with “Price on application” for a year. Then disappeared for year. Only to reappear again this year looking for € 350k. It’s worth more in the region of € 250k based on the area.
There was the primary school teacher who wouldn’t return the estate agents calls to even get my foot in the door for a viewing. The house was then pulled off the market a couple of weeks later.
Then there’s the Developer who has sold 80% of a particular development with the other 20% lying empty for the last 5 years while he waits for the market to recover. The remaining houses are all finished and the common areas are immaculately kept so it doesn’t have the appearance of a ghost estate. I’ve been surprised to not even see them appear in the last 12 months as prices have taken off again. Never underestimate people’s greed I guess. The two birds in the bush must be good ones where this guy is concerned.

What’s a “normal situation”? Where Ireland is concerned I don’t know anymore. Normal to some can just seem plain bonkers to others.

Vendors are loathe to crystallise a loss, especially when no pressure to do so.
So they will wait.

You’re spot on.