The no vote and the housing market.

I’d be interested to read posters thoughts on the impact the no vote may have on the already beleaguered housing market.

After today’s ‘No’ vote, we’ve definitely been pushed further along the curve: i.e. from denial to fear.

It won’t be long before the demonstrations start.

It’ll start out with taxi drivers and hauliers blocking roads. After a while it’ll be bricks and petrol bombs on O’Connell Street.

Unless a leader capable of leading this country into the 21st century emerges, I really fear for Ireland.

It’s good that we as a nation are finally having a good hard look at ourselves in the mirror (it’s most unfortunate that it takes circumstances like these to force us to cop ourselves on). This happy-go-lucky, carefree (even subservient) attitude has to end. If we can wipe every FF swine and their corruption off the face of Ireland once and for all, I’ll be happy.

I can’t possibly see how it would impact house prices in this country. Ireland might like to pretend that it has a say in the greater scope of international relations; but in reality, it’s a sham. The housing market will continue to tank as it has been for the last year.

I can see this vote having severe implications for our ability to retain our predatory corporation tax policies and our ability to attract multinational investment. At the very least, there is nothing good for the property market going to come out of our little show of petulance and probably a lot of bad.

Can’t see the no vote having a direct effect on the property market but it will add to the general feeling of uncertainty.

I’d say Michael McDowell is having a stiff brandy and a good cigar in his tranquil Dublin 6 residence.

I’ve an observation on the outcome of the poll as it relates to the market. A cursory glance at the geographical breakdown of no vote areas; would seem to suggest that there is a correlation between no votes and high housing sales inventory, relative to population. I know there are a couple of exceptions, but there seems to be a link.

rte.ie/news/features/lisbontreaty/results.html

daftwatch.atspace.com/

Was only thinking the exact same thing myself today.

I think it’s fair to say that since the start of 2008, it’s those nice people from outside Dublin (I’m trying really hard not to use the ‘C’ word) who have been hit most from the downturn.

Ireland’s corporation tax policy was already in the crosshairsof the old order European countries(Germany, France, UK) prior to the referendum and with the Eastern European flat tax model combined with lower wage costs and costs of transporting goods to market, it’s days are numbered as an advantage whatever way the vote went.
The multinationals have been quietly slipping away since about 2003, and many already have migration plans to Eastern Europe/Asia(even the USA) already in place.

The current buzzword among multinational corporations is BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and they are all positioning themselves to break into these ‘growth markets’. Our lack of investment in telecommunications infrastructure has cut us out of the loop in these countries, even manufacturing makes little sense with higher wages and transport costs to mainland Europe.

Corporation tax is yesterday’s news, we need new ideas in order to come out on the other side of this recession.

How long exactly? What date before the next demonstration involving more than 200 persons actually starts? Is this just spouting?

When?
I’m looking for accuracy to a DATE here?
How many taxi drivers of any significance outside of Dublin? Especially since that city and others have been deregulated.
I doubt it. Any, way, please go ahead and give us a date?

When?

When exactly will the first petrol bomb lighting hit the streets?
Sure the bricks have already been falling out of the badly built offices on O’Connell street every year for the last 20 years. No news here. Yawn. Give me my blanket.

Unless a leader capable of leading this country into the 21st century emerges, I really fear for Ireland.
Leadership? In this country of mostly spinless bullys (= Cowen, Bertie et al.)

It’s good that we as a nation are finally having a good hard look at ourselves in the mirror (it’s most unfortunate that it takes circumstances like these to force us to cop ourselves on). This happy-go-lucky, carefree (even subservient) attitude has to end. If we can wipe every FF swine and their corruption off the face of Ireland once and for all, I’ll be happy.

Well we dare not speak its name in polite society (I mean BUBBLE). But I wonder. If this vote had taken place in 2006 would the result have been different? I’m beginning to think that the fate of the European project over the next decade may have fallen prey to the deflation of the great Irish housing bubble. Strike two Canny Mc Savvy. :laughing:

OK. I think that people will know where my little fingers are going here.

I need dates please with accuracy rather than spouting.

West Dublin had three of the top ten No constituencies including the highest in Dublin South West. Im gonna go out on a limb here and say that I suspect fears about immgration may have been a factor in these areas as well as the deterioration in the general economic climate. Possibly no coincidence also that many of the negative equity shoebox apartments are located in West Dublin.

While I would be surprised if it had a direct bearing on the housing market I suspect that it will hasten the general sense of doom and gloom.

Roll on the doom and gloom. It will help the depression in house prices.

No spine in most of the population of Ireland. They barely had enough spine to vote NO. But I congradulate them for it. Those that did.

They’d be out tomorrow morning campaigning for FF and putting marmamlade and jam on the toast of their FF TDs.

Too few revolutionaries.

Too few action makers.

It’ll be a big wash and cover up.

If any government change happens, it’ll be slow, and very slow,

Hi wii4miinow,

I don’t know what the fascination with dates is, but anyhow.

The shinners have gotten a massive boost in their ground support levels with the leadership demonstrated by Mary-Lou McDonald and their anti-establishment ‘No’ victory.

Just in case you don’t think riots can’t happen in this lovely little country of ours, here’s a little reminder from very recently for you:

xs128.xs.to/xs128/08245/riot869.jpg

What are you wittering on about man. The vote is cast. This part of the forum deals with the implications of various factors on the speculative bubble in Irish house prices.

Lets keep it on topic.

Fair in some ways but not in others.

  1. You asked in the opening post for thoughts and you’ve got them.
  2. Yes the vote has been cast and the populus have responded.
  3. Now it will be appropriate for the chosen and appointed leaders to go out and act or not act.

Not act is my likely guess of the many appointed.

Not sure of your exact stance until we hear something more specific that “thoughts” and here more specifics, i.e dates, quantities, etc.
Very very respectfully

You’re still hung up on the numbers.

I reckon we’ve at least another 30% drop to go. Maybe 50%. Maybe more.

It all depends on who we have leading the country for the next 5 years.

The vision of “knowledge-based economy” while admirable, has, bar a few notable exceptions, been a failure – not only in terms of the broadband mess, a failure to invest in R&D and a lack of students studying maths/science/engineering, but there’s no incentive to participate in this knowledge economy! 1) the relative pay in multinationals/tech sucks and 2) nobody will invest in high-tech cos you can get 15%-20% a year by buying a flat off-plans in Dundrum. It’s the people who thought up the “knowledge-based economy” and put so much effort in getting it to where it was I feel sorry for. Hopefully if the multinats do stick around people will be glad of a job in them – recessions lead to increased productivity.

To me, i don’t expect the result having much of an impact, assuming the eu chooses not to bear its teeth. If anything it served as a distraction and the No will continue to distract for another week. Now that the referendum is over, the government can allow the flow of bad news.

I was a hesitant yes. I didn’t see anything concrete to say no to. It’s important to keep our corporation tax scam going as long as possible, but either outcome didn’t offer a clear advantage. I support the european project. I think it went wrong allowing in the ten countries a couple of years ago. Instead they should have been granted a special trading status, whilst allowing a closer integration of the core countries. This core could have set the ground rules. Some of the accession states had a too low gdp per capita.

A very optimistic assumption IMO.