The Northern Ireland Boom

The performance of the Northern Irish housing market is nothing short of astonishing, so worth a closer look.

The University of Ulster in conjunction with the Bank of Ireland prepare the bi-annual Northern Ireland House Price Index. Amongst the key findings of the latest report are;

  • 25% yoy price growth.

  • Lowest first time buyer new mortgages (10,000) since 1992.

  • Estimated £2 Billion worth of buy to let investment.

propertynews.com/boiSurvey/bank_of_ireland_report.pdf…pdf

The report doesn’t delve too deeply on the performance of the investment market. But my investigations suggest that a new two bedroom apartment would set you back about £180,000 to £210,000 and rent for between £550 and £650 per month and deliver a net yield of 3%.

Edit: check out the Index graph on page 12 of the report. :open_mouth: :open_mouth:

D’ya think this should go in the old International section, Duplex?

Just a thought… :wink:

I’ve already struggled with the title of the thread The Ulster Boom, The Six Counties Boom, The Occupied North Eastern Portion of this Fair Land Boom, the Norn Iorn Boom (Scots Irish dialect don’t you know) :smiley: :cry: :wink:

I’m originally from Derry. HPI in the last few years has been completely insane, even more ludicrous that the southern boom. An example, me ma’s house - 3 bed detached in a leafy suburb.

Bought new in 1989 for a whopping £26K. Yes, just £26K for a good house in a good area. In the mid-90s it had risen to about £50K, by 2000 it was £100K, and currently similar houses in the same estate are going for £180K.

This in a city with about 15% unemployment :open_mouth:

I make that 690% growth in about 16 years. Considering a *good *wage in Derry is about £18K…

Madness.

Sidewinder, you’ll notice from that chart that HPI tracked RPI from 1985 to 1995 picked up a little and from 2000 sky rocketed. I think that much of the demand is speculator driven, yet yields are below UK base rates. Its crazy and will look crazier when they start cutting back on the public sector. :unamused:

Speculator-driven yes, but who are the speculators? I think you’ll find a lot of them are from the south…buying up BTL all over the north for years now. Everyone I know in Derry who rents, the actual owner is a specuvestor from the Republic…

Buying up the north was very popular long before the likes of Florida and Bulgaria came on the radar.

It’ll be fascinating to watch what happens in the event of a crash in the south. Will southern investors dump their northern BTLs? Or hang on to them?

I’m sure it counts how close you are to the border too. Areas like Newry and Fermanagh have seen crazy growth in recent years. Specuvestors from the Republic are more likely to be buying along the border or in suitable parts of Belfast.

As for cutting back on the public sector expenditure, sure that practically is the northern economy. :unamused:

71%, apparently :open_mouth: :open_mouth:

That’s another baby David McWilliams has been talking about for a few years now. Without getting into politics eventually that’s got to be some sort of economic timebomb for the Republic.

a few days ago the FT reported that there were moves afoot in Northern Ireland to reduce the corporate tax rate to 12% (essentially a staggered system whereby the average rate would work out at 12%). this undertaking is apparently supported by parties on both sides. oddly, i did not see much coverage of this in the Southern Irish press.

such a move would need the approval of the UK exchequer and would probably contravene EU rules on state-aid but it looks as if they are trying to repeat the success of the south. it also looks like they have a republic style housing boom too.

Some 3/4 bedroomed properties in Portstewart/Portrush are going for £300,000-600,000. It is not sustainable - these are the sort of prices that should be paid for properties in the SE of England (the heartbeat of the UK economy) where wages are high and unemployment is low. Northern Ireland has lower GDP/wages/investment/employment than the NW of England!

The Inland Revenue have announced a hundred jobs cuts in the North, with more to follow.

belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northwest_edition/story.jsp?story=714979

That’s a couple hundred mortgages in some serious shite. :open_mouth:

An article in the Sunday Times property supplement entitled ‘Not So Grim Up North’ (sorry no link) contains some more jaw dropping information on the the Great Irish property mania.

Newry is the UKs top hot spot with prices rising ‘46% in the last year alone’. Investors account for about 25% of the market with half these investors coming from south of the border.

One Southern Irish buyer snapped up 20 units.

Oh the humanity :exclamation: