I find that hard to believe to be honest. There were sales on Grafton Street during September and October, presumably because stock wasn’t shifting. Im reliably informed by members of the fairer sex that many of the shops have been remarkably quiet as well. I’ve also been told by acquaintances who are involved in running coffee shops that their turnover is well down since around August and employees are having their hours cut. Of course I could just be moving in the wrong circles.
I don’t believe any CSO figures anymore. I know a guy who runs a number of businesses in Cork and he was telling me how he gets in these forms with obscure questions* from the CSO which he has to fill out, obviously as a small business owner he’s a busy man so has better things to be doing that spending half his time filling out these forms correctly so he just does them with basically guesses. I doubt this is an isolated occurance.
*What was the total weight of your imports last year?
Reading the article it says that sales of leather goods and such have decreased while sales of books have increased. Perhaps this marks the beginning of the intellectualisation of Irish society? Maybe all the lads who’ve been laid off from the building sites have found themselves with a bit of time on their hands and rather than waste it, they have decided to indulge in a bit of reading.
There was a programme on recently where they got 100 people to guestimate the weight of a cake.
the end figure was within grams of the correct result.
Perhaps someone with an interest in maths who saw the programme could expound!!!
Note people were not being asked about the future.
The theory would be that even through educated guesses over estimates and underestimates will level out and provide an accurate enough reflection of a figure. I know how much business I did last Quarter and could give fairly accurate guesses on many figures.
Some would be wrong but no big deal.
Overall figure would be reflect reality accurately.
look at the efficency when technology & access are employed to a specific subject/issue, as in propertypin forum and how its managed to paint I believe a lucid picture with a handful of regular posters and the wider assement and anecdotal knowledge of the wider user base.
Imagine what you coud do with a dedicated team of 500 of the most interested passionate people.
It’s an observation by a chap called Francis Galton who was a 19th Century statistician. He observed something similar where there was a competition to guess the weight of a pig at a county fair and whoever was the nearest won the Pig. He asked the competition organisers to give him all the entries for it afterwards. He added them all up and divided them by the number of them to get the mean and found that it was nearly exactly correct.
As long as the sample is big enough this will always be the case.
The book to read on this is the Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki. I started it have been meaning to get back to it.
I was involved in a robbery once. Not telling which side. The raiders carried a medium size bag. All 12 Staff in the premises were interviewed afterwards by Gardai Detectives and each gave a different colour for the bag.
Now, add them all up, and devide by -----. What answer do you want?