Here’s a new experimental version of the My Home asking prices chart. NCD and SCD prices are included back to the last quarter of 2016, which is all the data I’ve got. There’s another feature I’ve been meaning to do for a long time – the ?s=xxx parameter in your browser’s address bar will change as you select different statistics with the radio button. That means you can copy and embed links to particular charts in mails/posts. I’ll eventually retrofit it to all the other charts if it looks ok.
Thanks for a much needed breakdown. From my experience, the worst areas in NCD are indeed finally experiencing a strong uplift. Even some desperate buyers around who have been repeatedly outbid on properties. I’d say those areas could keep running up for the next three years.
There is also a report on the CB website about the stubborn persistence of long term mortgage arrears. It concludes that “while the number of mortgages in long-term arrears continues to fall, the pace of reduction each quarter has begun to slow; For the first time, as many loans are exiting the portfolio of the main banks as are “curing” to lower arrears states”. But we still have a much higher rate of arrears than is tolerated in any other country, and a high percentage of the long term arrears have never engaged with their banks. See the O’Malley report here – centralbank.ie/publication/ … lity-notes.
It’s a little out of date as it uses the Q1 figures. The latest quarterly figures show the pace of exit from long term arrears went up again, I would guess due to ongoing sales of delinquent mortgages to vulture funds. The remaining number is still very significant. Even just considering those in more than two years of arrears, in round figures it’s about 40k accounts with €4 bn of arrears on €10 bn worth of mortgages. That’s including PDH and BTL whereas the aforementioned report only considers PDH.
This is probably the most useful contribution on the Pin to discussion of prices/rents. Which means it is the most useful guide anywhere to Irish prices/rents. I would draw the following conclusions, many of which runs counter to received wisdom in our mainstream media. I am no expert and I am open to correction on any of these points but I can’t find any contrary information in the media.
Dublin rental supply has increased and rents have moderated in the past two months but that looks like a seasonal effect (after the return of the students) which I think will be reversed in the Spring because any additional supply will be outstripped by increasing demand from a growing workforce.
The CSO index (the most reliable guide to property prices) indicates that prices nationally will match the boom time peak in 2020 on current trends but Dublin prices are now on a lower trajectory which would take many years to match Dublin’s 2007 peak (which was well above the national level, of course).
The PPR shows that the volume of property sales increased from catastrophically low levels - less the 20K in 2011 - to over 53K last year but we still have a long way to go to normal volumes. The PPR did not exist before the crash (if only!) so the closest comparator is the UK where there are around 1,200K transactions per year i.e. we still need to double our volume to reach their per capita level.
Price per sq. foot has dipped slightly in South Dublin - the bellwether for boom/bust - and other areas are catching up. This also happened in the final stage of the boom when people who were priced out of South Dublin brought their expectations and their 100% mortgages to the commuter belt. This time, the Central Bank has put the ceiling on South Dublin and this will eventually lead to a ceiling on commuter belt prices, still well below current South Dublin prices.
Asking prices are the least reliable indicator. The main trends are similar but the local variations are amazing - asking prices up by around 20% in Roscommon/Leitrim/Laois, compared to a mere 1% in Dublin 6. Surely the vendors in Ranelagh and Rathmines have not lost heart just because Brian and Amy are moving in at last to their extended pile on Palmerston Rd. ?
I think we’re at the point where marginal FDI will happen in the Dublin suburbs or well outside Dublin.
City centre jobs are not attractive to young workers <30k, unless there’s a very solid career progression track.
Public transport is dire if you’re trying to commute from somewhere affordable and firms are just going to increasingly bring Mohamed to the mountain.
I think this means rents have topped out. The big flow of new student residences are probably releasing a lot of pressure too.
I’ve posted elsewhere that I think that selling prices in prime Dublin have actually fallen a bit. There is no value for investors anymore, Central Bank rules are having their effect, and people are nervous about Brexit. The crackdown on short-term lets is putting off investors too.
I find it interesting prices in SCD are dropping as the fed is raising rates.
I think we’re in credit bubble 2.0 but I’m not sure how this one will play out considering there isn’t an oversupply of property, not yet anyway.
Thanks for your remarks. The paucity of reliable and comprehensive information is an ongoing annoyance. Compare the information on Daft or Myhome to, say, Zillow.com in the US where you can read off asking prices per square foot directly along with a host of other stats. I’ve always felt it’s still worth pulling together the little information we have, even if we are “seeing through a glass darkly”. But I do need to remind people every now and again about the limitation of the asking price info in those graphs.
Only a little over half the listings on Myhome.ie give floor areas from which an asking price per square foot can be calculated. That improves to 75% for Dublin listings. But then, the smaller the region we zoom in on the smaller the number of listings we have. To take your example, this month’s snapshot of Dublin 6 includes 180 properties for which floor areas were given (out of 230 total). This will be more prone to random monthly fluctuations than Dublin overall, in which 3,600 listings out of 5,000 give floor area. For some post codes we have 50 listings or less, and the averages here should be taken with a large pinch of salt.
Add to this the presence of various outliers in the data. It’s beyond the ability of one person to sift through individual listings every month, so the best I can do is lop off the extreme bottom and top end of asking prices per square foot. The results should therefore be taken as indicative, not gospel truth. That said, I’m inclined to trust the trends that are revealed for the most populous areas. If asking prices in SCD or Dublin generally seem to be softening over a period of months, it’s probably a real phenomenon.
Asking prices, of course, can be more a measure of market sentiment than market reality. Another perennial aggravation is the inability to match asking prices in ad listings to eventual sales prices on the PPR. The vagaries of address matching yield too few reliable data points to be useful. (EDIT: I thought that the prevalance of Eircodes on the PPR was set to increase, but on checking just now I found a grand total of 23 Eircodes on the entire PPR).
The bottom line is we’re stuck with what we’ve got. It may not be much, but hopefully it’s better than the tea leaf gazing that passed for market prognostications in the boom era.
No necessarily stuck - Eircodes are now used routinely in all conveyancing but this doesn’t help the PPR because solicitors don’t include Eircodes with stamp duty payments to the Revenue Commissioners. All that is needed is for the Revenue to require Eircodes for this purpose - it could easily be done with a Revenue practice notice or at most a Ministerial Order. There is a strong argument from a Revenue viewpoint - anyone underpaying Stamp Duty would be exposed to public scrutiny. Or is that why it won’t happen?
Added bonus - Eircode would find its raison d’etre. Maybe someone in the media will pick up on this.
Thanks PS. This thread is really valuable to us for our return to Ireland. We have a nice wedge and having an overview of the market beyond asking prices really helps. A big change from a decade ago when we had threads here about how many lights were on in a development at night to figure out the empties!
So Revenue have it but we can’t have it.
At least it’s not lost forever if they decide, or can be persuaded, to populate it later.
I find it’s actually marginally higher in Dublin – 10.8% vs. 9.9%, but low whichever way you look at it.
Yeah, complete pain. I tried address matching previously but not only was the success rate low, it was an unfair sample. Apartment addresses were less likely to match than house addresses, for instance. And, of course, it didn’t work at all for rural addresses sans house number.