Thanks and well done, ps200306.
This is probably the most useful contribution on the Pin to discussion of prices/rents. Which means it is the most useful guide anywhere to Irish prices/rents. I would draw the following conclusions, many of which runs counter to received wisdom in our mainstream media. I am no expert and I am open to correction on any of these points but I can’t find any contrary information in the media.
Dublin rental supply has increased and rents have moderated in the past two months but that looks like a seasonal effect (after the return of the students) which I think will be reversed in the Spring because any additional supply will be outstripped by increasing demand from a growing workforce.
The CSO index (the most reliable guide to property prices) indicates that prices nationally will match the boom time peak in 2020 on current trends but Dublin prices are now on a lower trajectory which would take many years to match Dublin’s 2007 peak (which was well above the national level, of course).
The PPR shows that the volume of property sales increased from catastrophically low levels - less the 20K in 2011 - to over 53K last year but we still have a long way to go to normal volumes. The PPR did not exist before the crash (if only!) so the closest comparator is the UK where there are around 1,200K transactions per year i.e. we still need to double our volume to reach their per capita level.
Price per sq. foot has dipped slightly in South Dublin - the bellwether for boom/bust - and other areas are catching up. This also happened in the final stage of the boom when people who were priced out of South Dublin brought their expectations and their 100% mortgages to the commuter belt. This time, the Central Bank has put the ceiling on South Dublin and this will eventually lead to a ceiling on commuter belt prices, still well below current South Dublin prices.
Asking prices are the least reliable indicator. The main trends are similar but the local variations are amazing - asking prices up by around 20% in Roscommon/Leitrim/Laois, compared to a mere 1% in Dublin 6. Surely the vendors in Ranelagh and Rathmines have not lost heart just because Brian and Amy are moving in at last to their extended pile on Palmerston Rd. ?