The Pretty Charts thread


#197

Thanks and well done, ps200306.

This is probably the most useful contribution on the Pin to discussion of prices/rents. Which means it is the most useful guide anywhere to Irish prices/rents. I would draw the following conclusions, many of which runs counter to received wisdom in our mainstream media. I am no expert and I am open to correction on any of these points but I can’t find any contrary information in the media.

Dublin rental supply has increased and rents have moderated in the past two months but that looks like a seasonal effect (after the return of the students) which I think will be reversed in the Spring because any additional supply will be outstripped by increasing demand from a growing workforce.

The CSO index (the most reliable guide to property prices) indicates that prices nationally will match the boom time peak in 2020 on current trends but Dublin prices are now on a lower trajectory which would take many years to match Dublin’s 2007 peak (which was well above the national level, of course).

The PPR shows that the volume of property sales increased from catastrophically low levels - less the 20K in 2011 - to over 53K last year but we still have a long way to go to normal volumes. The PPR did not exist before the crash (if only!) so the closest comparator is the UK where there are around 1,200K transactions per year i.e. we still need to double our volume to reach their per capita level.

Price per sq. foot has dipped slightly in South Dublin - the bellwether for boom/bust - and other areas are catching up. This also happened in the final stage of the boom when people who were priced out of South Dublin brought their expectations and their 100% mortgages to the commuter belt. This time, the Central Bank has put the ceiling on South Dublin and this will eventually lead to a ceiling on commuter belt prices, still well below current South Dublin prices.

Asking prices are the least reliable indicator. The main trends are similar but the local variations are amazing - asking prices up by around 20% in Roscommon/Leitrim/Laois, compared to a mere 1% in Dublin 6. Surely the vendors in Ranelagh and Rathmines have not lost heart just because Brian and Amy are moving in at last to their extended pile on Palmerston Rd. ?


#198

I think we’re at the point where marginal FDI will happen in the Dublin suburbs or well outside Dublin.

City centre jobs are not attractive to young workers <30k, unless there’s a very solid career progression track.

Public transport is dire if you’re trying to commute from somewhere affordable and firms are just going to increasingly bring Mohamed to the mountain.

I think this means rents have topped out. The big flow of new student residences are probably releasing a lot of pressure too.

I’ve posted elsewhere that I think that selling prices in prime Dublin have actually fallen a bit. There is no value for investors anymore, Central Bank rules are having their effect, and people are nervous about Brexit. The crackdown on short-term lets is putting off investors too.


#199

I find it interesting prices in SCD are dropping as the fed is raising rates.
I think we’re in credit bubble 2.0 but I’m not sure how this one will play out considering there isn’t an oversupply of property, not yet anyway.


#200

Thanks for your remarks. The paucity of reliable and comprehensive information is an ongoing annoyance. Compare the information on Daft or Myhome to, say, Zillow.com in the US where you can read off asking prices per square foot directly along with a host of other stats. I’ve always felt it’s still worth pulling together the little information we have, even if we are “seeing through a glass darkly”. But I do need to remind people every now and again about the limitation of the asking price info in those graphs.

Only a little over half the listings on Myhome.ie give floor areas from which an asking price per square foot can be calculated. That improves to 75% for Dublin listings. But then, the smaller the region we zoom in on the smaller the number of listings we have. To take your example, this month’s snapshot of Dublin 6 includes 180 properties for which floor areas were given (out of 230 total). This will be more prone to random monthly fluctuations than Dublin overall, in which 3,600 listings out of 5,000 give floor area. For some post codes we have 50 listings or less, and the averages here should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

Add to this the presence of various outliers in the data. It’s beyond the ability of one person to sift through individual listings every month, so the best I can do is lop off the extreme bottom and top end of asking prices per square foot. The results should therefore be taken as indicative, not gospel truth. That said, I’m inclined to trust the trends that are revealed for the most populous areas. If asking prices in SCD or Dublin generally seem to be softening over a period of months, it’s probably a real phenomenon.

Asking prices, of course, can be more a measure of market sentiment than market reality. Another perennial aggravation is the inability to match asking prices in ad listings to eventual sales prices on the PPR. The vagaries of address matching yield too few reliable data points to be useful. (EDIT: I thought that the prevalance of Eircodes on the PPR was set to increase, but on checking just now I found a grand total of 23 Eircodes on the entire PPR).

The bottom line is we’re stuck with what we’ve got. It may not be much, but hopefully it’s better than the tea leaf gazing that passed for market prognostications in the boom era.


#201

No necessarily stuck - Eircodes are now used routinely in all conveyancing but this doesn’t help the PPR because solicitors don’t include Eircodes with stamp duty payments to the Revenue Commissioners. All that is needed is for the Revenue to require Eircodes for this purpose - it could easily be done with a Revenue practice notice or at most a Ministerial Order. There is a strong argument from a Revenue viewpoint - anyone underpaying Stamp Duty would be exposed to public scrutiny. Or is that why it won’t happen? :angry:

Added bonus - Eircode would find its raison d’etre. Maybe someone in the media will pick up on this.


#202

The online stamp duty form includes the obligation to use an LPT identifier. These can be matched to eircodes. The eircodes just aren’t put into a field when the PPR database is released.

Online ads tend to use eircodes sporadically, maybe more in rural areas.

In Dublin where I look prevalence is in the 10% range.

I don’t think PS will be able to do much reliable matching using eircodes anytime soon, which is a pity.


#203

Thanks PS. This thread is really valuable to us for our return to Ireland. We have a nice wedge and having an overview of the market beyond asking prices really helps. A big change from a decade ago when we had threads here about how many lights were on in a development at night to figure out the empties!


#204

I had forgotten that Eircode is also redundant for Revenue, like every other use case :blush:
Could the PPR publish the LPT identifier?


#205

So Revenue have it but we can’t have it. :imp:
At least it’s not lost forever if they decide, or can be persuaded, to populate it later.

I find it’s actually marginally higher in Dublin – 10.8% vs. 9.9%, but low whichever way you look at it.

Yeah, complete pain. I tried address matching previously but not only was the success rate low, it was an unfair sample. Apartment addresses were less likely to match than house addresses, for instance. And, of course, it didn’t work at all for rural addresses sans house number.


#206

Pretty Charts (more info and links here)


#207

great work
Always working looking at Dublin apartments to see what way the wind is blowning


#208

Pretty Charts (more info and links here)


#209

Daft sales report is out today.

It seems that houses on market is up about 20% since the summer, it looks like more than the usual end-of-year glut.

The quick sales process that happened in 2016 and 17 seems to be over.


#210

Yes - the overhang from the autumn selling season certainly seemed to last longer than usual but I don’t know how it compares year on year. The reports on the Daft report focuses on average asking prices. It seems to me the most appropriate focus is on median selling prices as per the PPR - it gives a better idea of the actual experience of buyers and sellers in the market. IIRC the Daft report gave an average asking price of 376k for a property in Dublin last year - the median selling price by my reckoning was 340k. I have heard a suggestion that there will be a big upsurge in sales closing in December - even at that it looks like the number of sales this year will be less than 10% more than last year.


#211

Pretty Charts (more info and links here)


#212

Asking prices negative year on year in 5 of 22 Dublin postcodes. First time since Q1 2014

It’s definitely a plateau at the high end, if not even a little dip.


#213

Low sample size on some of those postcodes … take as indicative rather than gospel truth. Agree with your conclusion, though.


#214

True, I wouldn’t remark if it was one or two but five is noteworthy.

Also it fits with the theory that turning points occur first in the prime end of the market.

Unfashionable postcodes like D5, D10, D17 and D24 are still up double digits year on year. D2, D4, D6 and D14 are either negative or at best up 4% yoy


#215

I agree that the unfashionable areas of Dublin are “catching up” but I don’t see this as the start of a downturn in the prime areas.

Two factors are in play, neither of which will result in a sustained downturn. The charts show a clear seasonal pattern of price jumps in the first half of the year as fresh stock with aggressive pricing comes to the market. Asking prices stall in the last quarter, although the y-o-y figures are strongly positive because of double-digit increases in the Spring. Secondly, the more expensive parts of Dublin have hit the ceiling imposed by the Central Bank. Buyers priced out of those areas are taking their mortgages to other areas of Dublin causes prices there to rise until, barring some reversal of fortune (Brexit, Trump, …), those prices in turn will hit the Central Bank ceiling and the ripples will spread to commuter towns. Similar effects will happen on a smaller scale in other cities, beginning with Cork and Galway. Remarkably, prices in all urban areas have now increased at a very similar rate from their respective troughs i.e. around 150%. Limerick City was last to the party but these charts show that Limerick City has the strongest growth rate since 2014!

It is often said no single monetary policy can fit a diverse area like the the Eurozone but can the Central Bank’s macroprudential policy tame our urban housing bubble without destroying rural Ireland where houses are one-quarter of the price? Another couple of years and we will see a return to the commuter misery of the Celtic Tiger as those ghost estates in Cavan and Longford are revived by young workers priced out of Dublin.


#216

I already know a couple who have moved to Longford. One child, one income, with the bloke working in Dublin city centre. Strain of the commute is showing.