Yes - the overhang from the autumn selling season certainly seemed to last longer than usual but I don’t know how it compares year on year. The reports on the Daft report focuses on average asking prices. It seems to me the most appropriate focus is on median selling prices as per the PPR - it gives a better idea of the actual experience of buyers and sellers in the market. IIRC the Daft report gave an average asking price of 376k for a property in Dublin last year - the median selling price by my reckoning was 340k. I have heard a suggestion that there will be a big upsurge in sales closing in December - even at that it looks like the number of sales this year will be less than 10% more than last year.
I agree that the unfashionable areas of Dublin are “catching up” but I don’t see this as the start of a downturn in the prime areas.
Two factors are in play, neither of which will result in a sustained downturn. The charts show a clear seasonal pattern of price jumps in the first half of the year as fresh stock with aggressive pricing comes to the market. Asking prices stall in the last quarter, although the y-o-y figures are strongly positive because of double-digit increases in the Spring. Secondly, the more expensive parts of Dublin have hit the ceiling imposed by the Central Bank. Buyers priced out of those areas are taking their mortgages to other areas of Dublin causes prices there to rise until, barring some reversal of fortune (Brexit, Trump, …), those prices in turn will hit the Central Bank ceiling and the ripples will spread to commuter towns. Similar effects will happen on a smaller scale in other cities, beginning with Cork and Galway. Remarkably, prices in all urban areas have now increased at a very similar rate from their respective troughs i.e. around 150%. Limerick City was last to the party but these charts show that Limerick City has the strongest growth rate since 2014!
It is often said no single monetary policy can fit a diverse area like the the Eurozone but can the Central Bank’s macroprudential policy tame our urban housing bubble without destroying rural Ireland where houses are one-quarter of the price? Another couple of years and we will see a return to the commuter misery of the Celtic Tiger as those ghost estates in Cavan and Longford are revived by young workers priced out of Dublin.
I hadn’t looked at the rental graphs for last year - I usually get a good feel for what things are like from the people I work for and with in the IT industry - but I noticed a strange thing in the volumes available in Sept/Oct last year. There is normally a pretty dramatic tightening in supply from the combination of students and people starting work (it’s the peak time for people changing jobs - they usually take their summer holidays first). There’s also other tightenings in April/May when nobody moves and January when nobody advertises. You can see that pattern clearly for 2016 and 2017 and the April/May period for 2018 but there is only a slight dip for Sep/Oct 2018. Now I don’t remember noticing any difference in the difficulties that people around me were having in getting accommodation - it was still hugely problematic and there was probably more press coverage than usual - particularly from the MNCs - there was also a lot of talk about landlords giving up - I certainly heard about this first hand from people who experienced it.
Looking at the figures you can see that the supply of houses for rent actually increased - but in the past (2016,2017) it only dipped marginally anyway - so the main difference was in apartments. Anybody have any suggestions as to what might have happened? I thought about Airbnb but I don’t think the regulatory changes were really mentioned then. There is also the new student accommodation blocks but I think that has been gradually happening over the last couple of years and I’m not sure of the impact. There has been some increase in supply but I don’t think that’s enough yet to make a difference.
I think some of the student places which opened this year (Liberties area) had substantial capacity (IIRC something like 400 beds in some of them)…a couple of those coming on stream for this academic year would have made an impact on the amount of properties that otherwise would have been taken by them? It would be interesting to see what the occupancy rates are like for these places.
CSO says prices fell or stalled almost everywhere in November 2018. Of course, the headlines focussed on the long-term rate which still include the growth in the first half of 2018. When the monthly number looks stronger, that’s what they highlight - funny that. irishmirror.ie/news/irish-n … 3-13865889
This could be just a seasonal effect - there have been occasional months of price reductions since the boom returned in 2013 - but I think we’ve reached the end of rapid price growth. At least, until the Central Bank opens the spigot again.
The PPR hasn’t been updated since 13th Feb. It has skipped the odd week in the past - but never this long. We are, I suspect, heading into one of the more interesting quarters in the Dublin property market. Perhaps there is a conspiracy afoot - I love a good conspiracy - or maybe the person who updates it is off skiing in Val d’Isere?