Thanks again, PS2. As always, this is more informative than the Irish media who all say property inflation is slowing down whereas your CSO chart shows that prices have been falling since December on a Q-on-Q basis. As I said in January, this could be just a seasonal effect but I think by May or June we will have a Y-on-Y decline in Dublin prices. I expect to see some inflation return in September when the May/June sales are registered. Property price inflation for the full year 2019 is unlikely to exceed 2% and could be flat depending on macro-economic factors.
Everyone knows we had a world-record collapse in house prices in 2008/09 - we went from an annual price inflation of 23.7% in August 2006 to deflation of -28.1% in June 2009. But Irish people haven’t recognised that our recent boom was an equally dramatic reversal - we went from annual deflation of -21.1% in Feb. 2012 to annual inflation of 27.9% in Sept. 2014. Look no further for an explanation.
“Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”
Mario Draghi, London, 26 July 2012
Isn’t the price curve supposed to be steeper during the bust than in a boom?