That looks like a rather savage drop in PPR sales volume for June, such a figure is comparable only to 2011 afaics from the stats - hot cakes no more.
I think you’re forgetting that it takes several weeks for properties to make it onto the PPR, as per the small print at the bottom of the graph. June only ended yesterday so the figure will be meaningless until August’s graph.
I think the more significant figure this month is the snapshot of Dublin prices from myhome.ie. The fall in asking prices is starting to look like an established trend in all parts of Dublin except north county Dublin where it’s up less than 1% in a quarter. NCD represents only about 14% of my Dublin sample from myhome, and it also has the biggest ratio of new builds (going by the numbers for Fingal vs. other Dublin LAs in the CSO housing completion figures). To me this suggests seller expectations are being shaped by the reality painted in the monthly CSO house price index.
I did wonder if there might be lag, maybe it’s that awesome Red-Alert-Red used that made it seem so doom-laden.
I do still think it will be lower that expected, ya know “slow”, even, maybe a “slow landing”, but you know better as to the form and trend of numerical lag.
Nah, the Red-Alert-Red was just 'cos I was running out of colours. But since it’s so prominent I might keep it as “the current year” from here on in, so that 2019 changes colour to something more muted in 2020.
As for that time lag, I have no crystal ball. On the one hand, I’m not seeing any precedent in the first half of the year to suggest the number of sales on the PPR is dropping. On the other hand we know (from the Daft house price report) that the volume of property for sale is increasing, and was at its highest since 2008 in May. The connection between the two is somewhat unguessable for now (edit: by me, I mean). For instance, in 2008 the number of new listings was falling like a stone, but the number of listings being removed was falling even faster so that the volume available soared (see Stock and Flow chart here). But it doesn’t necessarily follow that the same is happening now. Higher volumes for sale can happen even if both supply and demand are increasing.
I think the June figure might prove significant. I’ve watched the Dublin PPR figures for a good few years - generally half the sales have been registered by the end of the month, but sometimes it’s less - so 509 at the moment in Dublin would be 1018 - last year Dublin was 1457 in June, so it would have to be a lot less than half-complete to be near last year. Weekly Dublin figures (which I occassionally track) swing widely between 225 and 375 and the MyHome Dublin stock has been ticking down slowly (about 50 per week) so stock is shifting. If you look at the graph you will see that there is a lot of variation in monthly sales - quarterly sales probably give a better view but you could only view the figures as complete as far as Q1.
There’s interest in the rental chart as well. The May and September stock dips have been gone for the last year. I can think of a number of possible theories for this:
- Student accomodation supply has taken students out of the equation - the September dip was always associated with students but it is also a peak hiring time. I haven’t heard any good reason for what caused the May dip.
- Supply has increased - that wouldn’t neccessarily change the pattern though.
- Density of use - the high rents have shrunk the number of properties required and people just pack in at 4 to a 2 bed flat. Definitely happening but maybe this just spreads the load I’m not sure it would influence the pattern
- High number of very expensive rentals not moving and creating a permanent high background count while a small number of other properties come on and off the market.
Anecdotally I hear people saying that rental is easier than it was. Also a lot of places don’t get advertised on Daft, the inhabitants change organically and by word of mouth - Joe leaves and tells Mary who moves in - sometimes the landlord doesn’t even know.
Thanks MM. I might do a bonus extra PPR chart in mid-July to see if your and OW’s hunch is looking right.
I thought a lot of even student accommodation required a 12 month lease by landlords? At least in parts of Dublin?
Pretty Charts (more info and links here )
- Daft.ie Dublin Rentals UPDATED 01-Jul
- PPR Statistics (Ireland) UPDATED 01-Jul
- Myhome.ie asking prices/sq.ft, urban and commuter UPDATED 01-Jul
- CSO Residential Property Price Index UPDATED 10-Jul (CSO May data released 10-Jul)
Pretty Charts (more info and links here )
I promised a bonus mid-month set of PPR stats. Volumes for June do indeed look to be still down, but not having kept track of the typical timing of PPR entries I remain to be convinced that they won’t catch up eventually.
Generally at this stage of the month about 2 thirds of the entries are in. It takes about 6 weeks after month end for a complete result. So you could be looking at numbers a little bit less than last year. The summer is funny as a result of holidays, sometimes the civil servants are away, sometimes it’s the EAs and the lawyers seem to be off the whole time - or it seems to be so down here in the west at the moment - D4 sur mer.