The Pretty Charts thread


#261

That looks like a rather savage drop in PPR sales volume for June, such a figure is comparable only to 2011 afaics from the stats - hot cakes no more.


#262

I think you’re forgetting that it takes several weeks for properties to make it onto the PPR, as per the small print at the bottom of the graph. June only ended yesterday so the figure will be meaningless until August’s graph.

I think the more significant figure this month is the snapshot of Dublin prices from myhome.ie. The fall in asking prices is starting to look like an established trend in all parts of Dublin except north county Dublin where it’s up less than 1% in a quarter. NCD represents only about 14% of my Dublin sample from myhome, and it also has the biggest ratio of new builds (going by the numbers for Fingal vs. other Dublin LAs in the CSO housing completion figures). To me this suggests seller expectations are being shaped by the reality painted in the monthly CSO house price index.


#263

I did wonder if there might be lag, maybe it’s that awesome Red-Alert-Red used that made it seem so doom-laden.

I do still think it will be lower that expected, ya know “slow”, even, maybe a “slow landing”, but you know better as to the form and trend of numerical lag.


#264

Nah, the Red-Alert-Red was just 'cos I was running out of colours. But since it’s so prominent I might keep it as “the current year” from here on in, so that 2019 changes colour to something more muted in 2020.

As for that time lag, I have no crystal ball. On the one hand, I’m not seeing any precedent in the first half of the year to suggest the number of sales on the PPR is dropping. On the other hand we know (from the Daft house price report) that the volume of property for sale is increasing, and was at its highest since 2008 in May. The connection between the two is somewhat unguessable for now (edit: by me, I mean). For instance, in 2008 the number of new listings was falling like a stone, but the number of listings being removed was falling even faster so that the volume available soared (see Stock and Flow chart here). But it doesn’t necessarily follow that the same is happening now. Higher volumes for sale can happen even if both supply and demand are increasing.


#265

I think the June figure might prove significant. I’ve watched the Dublin PPR figures for a good few years - generally half the sales have been registered by the end of the month, but sometimes it’s less - so 509 at the moment in Dublin would be 1018 - last year Dublin was 1457 in June, so it would have to be a lot less than half-complete to be near last year. Weekly Dublin figures (which I occassionally track) swing widely between 225 and 375 and the MyHome Dublin stock has been ticking down slowly (about 50 per week) so stock is shifting. If you look at the graph you will see that there is a lot of variation in monthly sales - quarterly sales probably give a better view but you could only view the figures as complete as far as Q1.

There’s interest in the rental chart as well. The May and September stock dips have been gone for the last year. I can think of a number of possible theories for this:

  1. Student accomodation supply has taken students out of the equation - the September dip was always associated with students but it is also a peak hiring time. I haven’t heard any good reason for what caused the May dip.
  2. Supply has increased - that wouldn’t neccessarily change the pattern though.
  3. Density of use - the high rents have shrunk the number of properties required and people just pack in at 4 to a 2 bed flat. Definitely happening but maybe this just spreads the load I’m not sure it would influence the pattern
  4. High number of very expensive rentals not moving and creating a permanent high background count while a small number of other properties come on and off the market.

Anecdotally I hear people saying that rental is easier than it was. Also a lot of places don’t get advertised on Daft, the inhabitants change organically and by word of mouth - Joe leaves and tells Mary who moves in - sometimes the landlord doesn’t even know.


#266

Thanks MM. I might do a bonus extra PPR chart in mid-July to see if your and OW’s hunch is looking right.


#267

I thought a lot of even student accommodation required a 12 month lease by landlords? At least in parts of Dublin?


#268

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#269

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I promised a bonus mid-month set of PPR stats. Volumes for June do indeed look to be still down, but not having kept track of the typical timing of PPR entries I remain to be convinced that they won’t catch up eventually.


#270

Generally at this stage of the month about 2 thirds of the entries are in. It takes about 6 weeks after month end for a complete result. So you could be looking at numbers a little bit less than last year. The summer is funny as a result of holidays, sometimes the civil servants are away, sometimes it’s the EAs and the lawyers seem to be off the whole time - or it seems to be so down here in the west at the moment - D4 sur mer.


#271

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#272

It looks like only half the total July sales have been registered in the PPR by 1 August but if the sales already registered are representative of July, then the trend towards declining prices in Dublin has been reversed. The July median price is 356,828 Euro, an all-time record.

I suspect that apartment sales are driving this unexpected trend. New-build apartments are coming on stream and are a growing component of sales in Dublin. The average price of these apartments comfortably exceeds the median price for Dublin properties.

The sale of new apartments is bringing no relief for renters. It is simply scandalous that the median rent for a 2-bed apartment is 2,300 Euro p.m. .


#273

Record amount of apts now to let since PS started collating these numbers, the increase from June to July was quite large (865->927) so it would be interesting if any of this was due to the kicking in of the AirBnB rules?

Number of houses still well down on peak. Going into student letting season in the next month or so will be expecting a reduction in the amount of availability overall which is likely to result in further price increases .


#274

I’d offer a word of caution here - I’ve watched these figures for quite a few years and for some reason the prices of the early properties always seem to be higher than those that come in later. I won’t be surprised if that figure comes down a bit as the sales come in. We probably have about half the sales now so the volume will probably be lower than last year - that seems to be that pattern for the year that the volume of sales is very slightly down on last year. The PPR treats multiple sales as 1 and it may be that this years actual sales are higher than last because of a larger number of multiple sales in the buy to rent sector. In the past most of us have ignored the multiple sales as they were probably pretty even year on year - this might still be the case this year.

On the rental figures I’ve noted in other posts that seasonal dips (apart from the Xmas dip) have been very shallow for the last 18 months. It seems that rental supply is rising - much of this supply is probably in the reit based buy to rent sector. Their minimum asking rents for 2 beds are in the 2.5 to 3.5k range - I believe that their market at that price is much smaller than their supply - somebody is going to have to take a hit here. Remember that the Daft rents are asking rents - perhaps that is why supply is rising - the price is too high to take the supply off the market. At that price you need 4 people sharing - people might do that for 6/650 per month - but 850 per month to share a 2 bed with 3 others - forget it! This would be an excellent time for the government to turn the screws on vacant site taxes and push down the price of land - remember that these crazy prices are largely a result of over-paying for land, very little to do with increases in actual build cost.


#275

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#276

I wonder what the effect of the A3 BER rating requirement on new buildings is having on historical prices and when did this effect start taking place. I notice on the Quarterly asking prices/sq.ft link that there was a big leap in prices in Dublin and the surrounding areas in Q4 2014. When I try to search on the internet to when the regulations first came into effect it looks like 2011 but I don’t know when builders would have mainly started building to these standards and when the sales had an effect on the overall price increases. Anyone any thoughts on this? Hope I’m not derailing the thread, I’m just curious to hear what people think.

Fantastic charts btw PS.


#277

House prices in Dublin City (-1.4%) and DL-Rathdown (-4%) have turned negative y-on-y, house prices elsewhere in Dublin are flat. Dublin apartments are (barely) positive; I assume this is because (a) apartments took a bigger hit during the crash and (b) there are more new apartments coming onto the market in Dublin with above-average prices. Nationally, prices seem to have plateaued. Brexit will restrain any upward trend for the rest of the year but I don’t see a price crash on the horizon.


#278

Was just looking through the PPR stats for this year so far and I noticed that there was a huge number of what looked like multi-apartment sales in August. Some of them were obvious, some needed a bit of research but in the end the 15 apartment sales came to a total of 732 apartments. Taking a reasonable guess I reckon around 1600 apartments were sold up until now so nearly half the sales came through in August - all second hand and all sold on the 1st of August.

The average price was 364k. I’m guessing that this all belonged to one person/institution. Any ideas. It doesn’t make any difference to supply of course.


#279

Excellent spot MM.

Looks like some kind of corporate restructuring because there would need to be close coordination between vendor & purchaser to get all this registered on the same date (unless 1 August has some significance for tax purposes which might get a lot of transactions lined up.).

The prices vary which suggests arms length but there could be some crude formula to fix the prices (e.g. per sq. M.). If not, this will throw out the CSO data.

They’re the only transactions in Dublin over €2m. except for 90 Upper Lesson Street (which would have got much more at the peak. And there’s a 50 unit sale in Cork, just to add spice!

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/?action=search&county=6&property_type=0&date_from=2019-08-01&date_to=2019-08-16&price_from=2000000&price_to=0&address=


#280

Multi-apartment sales were very common last time I looked a couple of years ago. Some of the transactions numbered in the hundreds. There were several billion euro worth, and that’s just the ones I was able to spot algorithmically on the PPR. I posted here about it at the time, might see if I can dig it out.