The Pretty Charts thread


#281

I think this is the Americans (Marathon Asset Management) selling back to the Irish (Ires Reit) :
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-raises-134-2m-to-help-buy-815-apartments-1.3924419

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/portfolio-of-815-homes-in-dublin-and-cork-seeks-240m-1.3883743

a portfolio of 815 apartments, mainly in Dublin,…spread across 16 locations>

The agreed value of the transaction, at €285 million, was about €45 million over the original asking price.

That averages just under Euro 350K. per apartment, close to MetalMike’s figure of 364K. Seems a steep price to pay when most of these apartments are in remote suburbs but there seems to have been a bidding war which pushed the price well above asking.

The Yanks are getting out well out of this (i.e NAMA did badly, as usual)

In 2015, the New York-headquartered company was reported to have paid Nama €120 million for the 588 apartments within the Plum portfolio.

So Marathon bundled another 227 apartments with the Plum portfolio which added 80 M. to the deal if they are similarly priced. That leaves Marathon with almost 60% profit on the Plum portfolio. Which they bought in 2015 i.e. when prices in Dublin were already half-way back to peak.

How come we pressured NAMA to sell off loan portfolios just when everyone could see the upside but we clung onto bank shares which have been losing steadily for the last 18 months?

I suspect there is some tax voodoo attached to 1 August e.g. 31 July is end-year for capital gains tax filings in some jurisdictions.


#282

David McWilliams warned years back that the furriners would get out in time to leave Paddy holding the baby for the next crash.


#283

Same reason that all the quantitive easing since 2009 ends up in the elites pockets. Same reason that tax havens exist. Same reason Jeff Epstein and his friends got away with abusing children for decades. World wide moral corruption on a grand scale. It will be a great day when the whole shit show collapses.


#284

Anecdotal alert - Apartment rental market in D2 & D4 is alive and well.


#285

No pretty charts this month? :frowning_face:


#286

Try 50p in the meter… :icon_surprised:


#287

Builders holidays :slight_smile:


Asking Price v Selling Price & Sale Duration
#292

Apologies for being late this month due to a few, uh, technical glitches. But, to paraphrase someone … Life’s a glitch, and then you die.

Pretty Charts (more info and links here )

Monthly

Quarterly


#293

Thanks again PS.

I’m astonished at the 4% yoy increase in Dublin’s median price for July. This bucks the trend of the past 8 months which was beginning to produce a yoy decline in Dublin prices. Of course, a lot of the best properties which went on the market in the Spring are registered as sold in July but that is true every year so it shouldn’t affect the yoy trend.

On a separate note, it is remarkable how the prices in various regions have tracked each other. There is very little change in relative prices in Ireland despite a rollercoaster for prices in general e.g. Cork and Galway are in lockstep and have kept pace with Dublin after an initial lag in 2014. This suggests that house price movements are not reflecting local supply and demand conditions but rather are driven by macroeconomic factors, perhaps the availability of finance and overall confidence in the economy . One exception is Wicklow which has clearly lost ground to Dublin in general and particularly to West Dublin where median prices used to be lower than Wicklow.


#294

I’m not sure we’re comparing apples with apples, though, Lefournier3. The declining trend in Dublin prices (or at least in the rate of increase) has been in the CSO price index. That’s a carefully controlled like-with-like comparison. I presume the 4% median price increase you’re looking at for July is the property price register. With only 1,600 properties involved one can imagine things that would make it bounce around – a block sale of houses vs. apartments, a recently sold development in a pricier part of the capital, or something else that leads to a difference in the mix of properties for that month. Anyway, the CSO July data will be out next week, and will be interesting to see if it shows any kind of corresponding blip.

The other metric you mention that has Cork and Galway in lockstep is not a house price comparison at all, per se. That’s my own “asking price per square foot metric” using data scraped from current ads on myhome. I’m sure a proper statistician would have a hissy fit at the vagaries of this. For a start it has seller optimism/pessimism baked in, and is far from guaranteed to reflect prices eventually paid. That said, it seems to have matched the general market trends for as long as I’ve been doing it and, being more up to the minute than either the CSO index or property price register, may give some vaguely useful pointer as to where the market is heading.

N.B: Next week we should also have the Central Bank arrears report for Q2. That’s going to be an interesting one as progress on arrears seem to have somewhat stalled in the last year. Given the renewed focus on the state of our banks (and the hammering that their share prices have taken) I think those figures will be getting a fair bit of scrutiny.


#295

PS,
You’re right about the PPR. It treats multi-unit transactions as a single purchase, skewing the median price upwards. The PPR is a good example of a state body frustrating its principal objective: price transparency. There is no quality control, even obvious errors are uploaded to the register. Surely they should at least vet the multi-million transactions? E.g. Do they think this house in Limerick sold for almost €7 M. ?
https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/8_halcyon_place_the_park_residential_village_castletroy_co_limerick_ireland-400209/

Sales typically appear in the register about six months after the property goes sale agreed. In a volatile market this is much too slow to be useful to market participants. Did prices rise or fall during this year’s Spring sales season? The PPR is giving a misleading answer now and I think it will still be misleading even when all the relevant transactions are registered.

The old-style auction system (which drove prices to their peak) was a model of transparency by comparison. At least the CSO is doing the job which the PPR was created to do.

Your asking price per square metre metric is probably the best leading indicator around. Despite your caveats (which are correct) it has proven to be a reliable indicator of trends in each of the regions.

You suggested a simple improvement to the PPR - require an eircode for each property sold. Here is the response of the Minister for Justice to this sensible idea.

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/question/2018-07-12/205/

Naked buck-passing!


#296

Very much the same response as I got when I wrote to both the PSRA and Revenue over four years ago now. The suggestion that they might improve the service by the simple expedient of talking to each other appeared to be an alien concept.


#297

Pretty Charts (more info and links here )

Monthly

Quarterly

Link to CSO Residential Property Price Index for July.


#298

Pretty Charts (more info and links here )

Monthly

Quarterly

Link to CSO Residential Property Price Index for July.
Link to latest CB Mortgage Arrears


#299

The CB arrears: I read it as roughly more than 4% of mortgages are greater than 2 years in arrears? That’s mad Ted…


#300

That 6% drop in DLR looks ominous…


#301

Pretty Charts (more info and links here )

Monthly

Quarterly


#302

Thanks again PS

October has thrown up some interesting YoY rental figures (median)

  • No change in 1 or 2 bed apt

  • 3 bed apt down 2.6%

  • No change for 2 bed house

  • 3 bed house up ~1%

Overall supply is up 14% YoY (Apt +18%, house +7.5%).

If the usual increase in stock levels between October and November carry through to this year as well we are probably looking at a record volume count since PS started collating these numbers 4 years ago.

November figures should make for interesting reading!


#303

Yes. It looks like the multiple dips that we used to have during the year are levelling out. That may be the surge in supply of student living (assuming students were the cause of the dips). The increased supply doesn’t surprise as there were a huge number of apartments in straight to rent schemes this year. What does surprise me are the rents - all these new schemes were signalled as being in the 2.5k to 3.5k range and I would have expected those to move the needle on rentals (particularly the 2 beds as most of these schemes were 2 beds). Anybody have an explanation for that? I guess one possibility is that they’re not advertised on Daft, or perhaps they have been gobbled up by the multinationals.

Anecdotally I don’t hear so many people having difficulty finding somewhere to rent, but the prices still shock newcomers to Ireland and there does seem to be a steady trickle of people moving out of Ireland (Irish and Foreign) because of the rents.


#304

On the sales front - sales in Dublin seem to be down on last year, there have been 5300-5600 houses for sale on MyHome virtually all through the summer and a pretty constant 350-380 sales per week. It seems the market is in balance but there is still a huge gap in expectation as median prices on MyHome are 395k and in the PPR 340k - that has to suggest that initial asking prices are not being met and certainly if you look at price changes they are overwhelmingly downward.