The Pretty Charts thread


#305

Do apartments in the straight-to-rent schemes get advertised individually on Daft? If they are advertised en bloc or as a single representative property then I’ll only pick them up as a single ad and they won’t move the needle on volume, median or average. (There’s a similar problem with block sales on the PPR). Anyone have an address for a known block scheme that they could look up on Daft?


#306

I am nearly sure it is just one per type (i.e. 1bed, 2 bed, 3 bed) in the complex at various price points. I can think of Capital Dock, it appears to be 2/3rd’s empty (not surprising given what they are looking for).


#307

Thanks beattie. So depending on the number of block rentals available, my Daft rental stats may be missing a large chunk and therefore be way off the mark.


#308

Latest CSO residential price index will be out later in the morning. In the meantime, DNG have just released their own Q3 price analysis, available here. They admit rather reluctantly that “prices fell marginally across the capital in the three months to September”. Here’s are just two snippets from it on Dublin house prices:

I would have said that when the quarterly rate of change is more negative than the annual rate, you’re looking at quite a major change in trend. The change was -1.4% for the quarter vs. -1.3% annually for second hand houses in Dublin. But even starter home prices – for which DNG say demand is robust – have “recorded a very small decrease”. I’d have said -0.8% in a quarter in the strongest market segment is significant. DNG still maintain that prices will be “broadly flat” for 2019 but that sounds a bit euphemistic to me. As others have done, they put it down to CB rules and an increasing number of new builds.


#309

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#310

Hard to know what to make of those numbers - some sign that the decline hasn’t gotten “declinier” and that effectively we’re close to that rarest of things in the Dublin property market - equilibrium? Prices at the top-end seem to be the weakest which would support the affordability argument.

It’ll take a couple more months to really see I suppose.


#311

Agreed. I was surprised to see the CSO numbers showing a bit of an uptick in the August index. Somewhat goes against the DNG numbers and my own asking price numbers. We can be thankful for the CB rules at least – long may they last. Still the only thing standing between us and a rapid return to property boom and bust.


#312

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#313

Thanks as ever for the stats ps. A few comments on these stats in relation to Dublin.

Asking prices /sq ft are down Yoy all over Dublin - only D12 and D2 show any substantial rise - but see my point about median price on MyHome below.

The rental stats are reflecting what I’ve been hearing from people I work with for most of this year - that supply isn’t a problem but asking prices are too high, that landlords have stopped trying to push annual increases and if they do even a mild threat to move out will cause them to back down, that 2400 is the max that anyone wants to pay for a 2 bed apartment anywhere in Dublin, that you can move and end up paying less thatn you did before for a better place. I haven’t heard anybody say that they have successfully haggled on price but maybe that will come in time. The supply figures suggest to me that this is not just additional building but that people are moving out - whether outside Dublin or outside Ireland I don’t know. I was chatting to some foreign staff last week and it’s amazing how many have a plan to live somewhere other than Ireland at some point - usually when they have ‘made enough money to buy a house at home’. A few say they have made their life here and will stay - but it was pretty evenly split with those who said they would leave - Asians were least interested in leaving - that’s quite a reversal to a few years ago when most said they would go home.

With regard to the PPR sales volumes seem to be holding up - I think they may be higher as the number of multi-residence sales that come under a single PPR listing seem to be a lot higher than last - I tried to estimate it where I could and I reckon that there are at least 700 more units sold than last year. There is still a constant stream of about 370 sales a week (70 of which are new houses). Prices achieved have been declining since July but median asking prices on MyHome haven’t budged from 395k over the whole year (the median PPR price is 340k for the year so far). I’ll be curious to see if that declines any time soon.

All in all I think we are on the edge of a plateau possible heading for a slow decline. As I said before I think most of the speculative money is out of the market so I think this current market is limited by the financial resources of the house buying cohort. The economy is running at a fairly high level and wage rises (even in IT) seem heavily constrained by something - even if you move you can’t get a massive increase. Contract rates are very average and good rates (I mean 800 plus) are very hard to find and it is almost impossible to go direct (which might be connected to the low rates - some of these agencies are taking 15% or more - not so long ago the standard rate was 10%). You can already see a big impact on the 700k plus houses - there is a very small number of people who could afford them and most of them are living in 700k plus houses - and in fact some of them want to sell them but can’t afford to downsize - want to sell your house in Churchtown and buy a nice modern apartment in Marianella - forget it - you’ll need to get a mortgage for the difference.


#314

I agree with most of this @MM, but the rental picture in Dublin is confusing. The latest data from the residential tenancies board shows a 7.1% increase in rent in Dublin year on year for Q2 2019>

the standardised average rent for Dublin stood at €1,713, up from €1,599 in the same quarter the previous year.

But I agree that rents in many parts of Dublin have hit an effective ceiling which, as you say, is around €2400 for a two bed apartment i.e. almost €30,000 a year which is about half the post-tax income of a couple even if both are on good salaries.

Landlords have discovered that the pool of expat executives willing to fork out €5000 a month is extremely limited. The big winners are the landlords who bought apartments in remote areas of Dublin for half-nothing in 2012/13 and are now renting them out at almost the rent levels that are being achieved in the most sought-after areas.


#315

I think you’re going to see that level out considerably for Q3. Average rental prices were growing strongly for the first half of 2018, but started to level out in Q3, so the YoY should reflect that in Q3 2019. I presume a lot of the price hikes were at the upper end too, as the median price seems much flatter than the average. Also notable is a big Q3 drop in volume for 2016-17 which was less pronounced in 2018 and almost non-existent this year. The number of apartments to rent on Daft is now at the highest in the four years I’ve been looking at it … although it still doesn’t seem high for a city the size of Dublin.


#316

I think we need to remember that the REIT type units probably have much more availability than what they advertise, so actual supply is likely to be quite a bit higher than what the daft numbers indicate. There also seems to be quite a bit of supply from these sources to hit the market in the next quarter or two. As MM has pointed out the ceiling on 2400 for a 2-Bed is going to be lower that what they will be looking for.

Interesting times ahead…


#317

I’d agree that there is probably a change from Q2 and if I’m correct in my thinking the RTB figures represent actual rather than asking prices then their data would be more accurate. I don’t think the Daft numbers represent true availability as many tenancies evolve rather than change so a place in a house/apartment is often advertised by word of mouth or in workplace noticeboards. This is a function of the high occupancy in apartments - for example 2 beds seem average somewhere between 3 and 4 people - if somebody leaves then they are usually replaced by somebody one of the tenants knows or works with. It might be worth tracking the ‘House shares’ part of Daft to capture some of this data but most people don’t need to advertise to get a new flatmate. Houses are even more susceptible to this - I know a 3 bed house that hasn’t been advertised in at least ten years - none of the original tenants are there but they have changed one by one over the period.


#318

A recent analysis on some of the rental markets in the US shows what could be in store for the market here

San Francisco rents had peaked in October 2015 and then fell almost 10% before the “Trump bump” infused new energy into housing in the Bay Area. This caused rents to rise again, with 1-BR rents beating by a hair the Oct. 2018 high, and 2-BR rents getting close, but no cigar. In June this year, this energy petered out.

In October, the median asking rent for 1-BR apartments, at $3,530, fell 2.5% from a year ago and 5.1% from the new record in June 2019 ($3,720), which itself had been just $50 above the old record of October 2015 ($3,670). In other words, in October 2019, the median 1-BR asking rent was 3.8% below where it had been in October 2015.

The median 2-BR asking rent, at $4,670 fell 1.1% from a year ago and was down 6.6% from the record in October 2015.

In San Francisco, as in many cities in the US, there is a lot of supply of newly or recently built rental units – rental apartments and condos for rent – but it’s nearly all high-end. And as landlord are trying to fill these units, they’re pressuring rents from the top down.

Wolfstreet


#319

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#320

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#321

Thanks again, PS.

Seems like rents have hit a ceiling. I can’t see Dublin rents increasing further beyond the rate of wage increases but equally I don’t see any relief for renters unless major apartment developments come on the market in the Spring.

Nationally house prices increased by 5% y-o-y. Even in Dublin there was a 1% increase y-o-y. Again, prices seem to have plateaued in Dublin and nationally there may be a bit to go before prices level off. Asking prices per sq. m. are down in Dublin which shows vendors are being more realistic.

Hard to judge trends on Q4 volumes at this stage but October was up 8% y-o-y nationally.


#322

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