The Pretty Charts thread


#385

Fair enough


#386

With working from home likely to be more acceptable in the future, the “Dublin pull” could be weaker, so I suspect that any significant drops could be limited to Dublin.


#387

Thanks as ever @ps200306 - I was wondering what these would look like. The scale of the increase in number of rentals is amazing. There’s usually a ‘student’ effect at this time but it’s got less over the years as students have tended to get pushed into 1 year leases which usually means all change in September. Given that we may well have fewer foreign students in September that will probably have another impact. September is also job change time (the other one is January) - again this will be impacted. Tech companies do seem to be moving the balance much more heavily to WFH - one of the companies I work with is suggesting a two shift model with people working 2 or 3 day weeks and a tiny core staff of team leads HR etc working on site (and even they will have options to WFH). At those kind of numbers a long commute is tolerable - especially if numbers are down overall. I suspect 1 beds might hold up better as the price comes down - 2 in a one bed is better than 4 in a 2 bed if everybody is WFH. Houses might also hold up as there are more extra rooms to work from e.g. 2 reception rooms plus the kitchen.

On the sales side I look at weekly sales for Dublin and they are about half what they were last year but prices are staying up - the median Dublin figure is just under 360k. I suspect some of these are just committed sales playing out but at 12 weeks in they can’t all be - supply went up for the first time last week - just over 4200 on myhome - but it’s been around that level since last November.

There are two places near me that were going to go on the market this spring - it will be interesting to see what happens now.


#388

Interestingly, landlords who have long term tenants will do ok as rents could only be raised slightly over the years with the rpz’s restrictions.


#389

Assuming landlords abided by the RPZ rules which the vast majority did not.
The RTB are toothless is defending tenants rights and their main objective is to find out if properties are registered and collect their fees
They do little or nothing for tenants who are better off dealing with threshold


#390

Pretty Charts (more info and links here )

Monthly

Quarterly


(Recently updated items marked :new:)

#391

A total of 3,020 properties available to rent in Dublin today on DAFT, up from 2,607 at the start of the month (and that was about double the typical level in recent years.

So, supply is skyrocketing and demand has collapsed- no AirBnB, students gone home, the summer schools never opened and office workers are WFH.

Rents are back to where they were about three years ago and they are continuing to fall. I expect a two-bed apartment in a decent area will be had for around 1,200 Euro before the end of the year. Lots of landlords will lose their nerve and head for the exit - expect a glut of apartments for sale.

With impeccable timing, our politicians have introduced a rent freeze. A landlord’s dream at this juncture!


#392

Im pretty sure its an upward only rent freeze ie they arent going to try and freeze falling rents…at least I hope so!


#393

From looking at Daft, it appears that many of the newer build to rent apartments are advertising all their units grouped into either one bedroom, two bedroom or three bedroom units, so there may be more properties to let than the figures indicate e.g. they may have 10 two beds to let but would only advertise one on Daft.


#394

Correct. This is a perennial problem with trying to estimate volumes on Daft. Best you can do is count the individual ads and hope the multis average out.


#395

I wouldn’t be so sure, I am noticing that keenly priced units are moving, you just need to be 10-15% below average and you should be able to shift it. Also I read somewhere over the weekend that DCC are looking to take long term lets out and are paying 2700 for a 2 bed (for them it is a good deal as they were paying 5k for hotel but still…).

If we get to 1600 for a decent 2 bed at the end of the year I think it will be a good result.


#396

No doubt, but it creates the impression that rents should remain at current levels whereas tenants should be asking for (well-deserved) relief from extortionate rents. Of course,the government will never give anyone relief from extortionate levels of taxation, even in a pandemic.


#397

You can always find a buyer if you undercut the market by 10-15% but in a frozen market you will then need another 10-15% cut to attract new buyers. Before long, you’ve cut prices 40% i.e. a €2,000 p.m. apartment is going for €1,200.

I didn’t see the story about DCC renting social housing for €2,700. Perhaps it’s linked to the scandal of DLR paying a hedge fund €52 Million to lease a development in Dundrum for social housing. This will mark the high point of the outgoing government’s pre-pandemic housing chaos.
https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/property/dundrum-housing-lease-deal-cost-17369248


#398

Pretty Charts (more info and links here )

Monthly

Quarterly


There’s been a tip upward in arrears < 90 days, even though Covid lockdown only began two weeks before the end of Q1 covered by the latest report. The full Central Bank report is here. The next one, due September, will be the real lockdown report. I expect it may not be pretty.


#399

This is a quote taken from boards ie

Is today the day we hit 3000 properties available for rent in Dublin? Only 18 more to go to break the landmark number up. 3000 represents a doubling from the 1500 properties available in February.

The paid advertising on the daft search page tells more of the story. The first ad is for the Capital Docks Residence. It’s a stunning development at the mouth of the harbour built on the old U2 tower foundations. I was watching it for prices before JP Morgan bought it outright during the build before leasing it back to Kennedy Wilson for 20 years. Apartments range from 3k to 4k. I’ve been down around it a few times, appears a a ghost town to me with a very low occupancy rate. It’s a good Kennedy Wilson still have plenty money to splash on the No1 daft advertising space. Bodes well for it sitting almost idle for quite some time.

The 2nd ad belongs to Quayside Quarter on North Wall Quay. I know nothing of the development but am interested they are advertising that you can get 4 weeks rent free on taking a lease. Only downside I see is that apartments range from 2.4k to 3k thereafter. Almost makes Capital Docks seem like good value. However, bear in mind this is down from 3.5k in Jan this year.

At ad No3 you’ll find Opus Living Hanover Quay. Purposely built for the short stay holiday market complete with key card entry on the main door. Like the other two developments it’s very swish. Obviously, it is as it’s charging 2.9k for an apartment all the way up to 3.6k for house. I know a couple living in this development on a fraction of that but on a short-term lease. Only, time will tell what will happen to these developments.

Lastly, the 4th ad on the first page is for Clancy Quay by Kennedy Wilson. Again, I’ve friends staying there. Advertised prices have falling over the last months and now sit at 1.8 to 2k per apartment. The apartments are decent without being amazing. They have 3 more blocks shortly being added to the development so it will be interesting to see how that situation develops.

Dublin is awash with luxury, short stay and expensive build to let apartments. Literally, every type of housing that doesn’t help a housing crisis. I would have serious questions around how this could happen. It’s as if we didn’t have a Government trying to fix this problem. Worse the Green Party campaigned on housing reform yet there is nothing on it in the new program for Government. It appears to be Fine Gael policy to ignore the issue and I can’t for the life of me understand why. Anyways, there is an enjoyable irony in how all the sectors they pushed are now in total disarray.
ary and build to let apartments. The difference between Ireland and say Germany where build to let is popular is the prices. The price

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687&page=623


#400

If people stopped paying their mortgage as soon as the pandemic hit, it shows that mortgage payments are now regarded as highly discretionary.

Naturally, given the law’s delays and the minimal level of repossessions.

When will we be able to flog those bank shares?


#401

Pretty Charts (more info and links here )

Monthly

Quarterly


Volume of apartments to rent now up 100% since Feb. Average rental on 1-2 bed apartments is down c. 17%. Asking prices for houses not showing much of a dent.


#402

I didn’t expect the MoM increase in supply that we saw. It would appear that people are either continuing to leave Dublin or are moving internally within Dublin to get cheaper rent/better value.


#403

I’m surprised too. I thought the main rental surge would come in late August/September as last years contracts came to an end. I suspect there are a lot of sublets - one was shown in these parts - a short term let - renewable in September. I think that surge will still happen, with the AirBnb market probably dead for a year, landlords are going to have to go back to the old model but even then this years student market is questionable.

Selling prices always come down slowly. I think a lot of the sales now are pre-covid ones playing out. There was a lot of new houses (over a hundred) sold last week so I’m guessing those prices were committed to before Covid. It takes a while for the expectations on both sides to play out. The median asking price in Dublin on MyHome is still 395 and the selling price per the PPR at 355 - those figures haven’t changed much in the last year - I think it will be 4 months or so before you see any measurable difference - based on the difference in expectations from buyers starting now and from sellers in about 3 months. It will be interesting to see when people start to bail out of rental. It’s probably too late to get out now and hope to get the current prices but I can see this being a long steady decline that will take a few years to play out.


#404

Some of this is short term. A large number of people with jobs in dublin went home pre lockdown. Plus students giving up accomodation. Hard to know where this trend will go as with anything in the economy at the moment