The Pretty Charts thread


#425

Interestingly the daft numbers have gone back up a lot this week so maybe there was some sort of cleanup. They are not yet back at previous levels but might soon be if this trend continues.

As an aside I am a member of a FB group which consists mainly of Europeans on it. I am surprised by the amount of new posts along the lines of “I am coming to Dublin soon and need to find somewhere to stay”. These are mainly people coming to study in the likes of the The Dublin Business School. Needless to say they are shocked by the prices being asked (and that is before their compatriots weigh in to tell them not to expect high standards either).


#426

From now on, links to charts will be here:

For the time being, I may still post an update here when something changes.


#427

CSO RPPI for June:


#428

Updates for September:


#429

Looks like rental prices have bottomed out (for now possibly) due to a further contraction in supply last month.


#430

i would have thought a floor is readily available for rents via HAP etc. prices cant really fall below this floor or rather very high level. One good thing is maybe just maybe the homeless figure should drop dramatically. Maybe this is too much to expect


#431

Property Price Index for July is out:

Report is here. Residential property down 0.5% nationally in the year to July, Dublin down 1.3% and Dublin City down 2.7%, but Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown up 1.3%.


#432

Any thoughts on accounting for the DLR jump?


#433

I have a friend in the market there looking at places in the 1m bracket…he says supply is terrible so I guess that is helping to push prices up.


#434

I think it’s not just the upper end, though there’s no way to know if it’s supply or demand that is drying up given that prices have not moved very substantially. If you look at page two of the report (Additional Indicators), volume is down massively compared to last year.

Volume and Value
In July, 2,561 household dwelling purchases were filed with Revenue. This represents a 40.7% decrease compared to the 4,316 purchases in July 2019, and a 12.9% increase compared with the 2,268 purchases in June 2020. The total value of transactions filed in July was €767 million.


#435

I think supply could be down because many of the higher end houses and apartments built in Dublin over the past few years have tried to revert to renting instead of selling due to little interest at the asking prices. I think they saw the asking rents for apartments in e.g. Ballsbridge and decided they could achieve those rents as well. If they actually walked down there, they would have noticed that many of them were still vacant.

As an example, back in January, the developer of apartments at Deerfield in Ballsbridge returned all booking deposits due to lack of buyer interest where two beds were priced at up to €1.3 million and he stated “uncertainty owing to Brexit has a hand to play in the sluggish sales market.”. Article link here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/plan-b-for-d4-boutique-apartments-as-buyers-become-renters-instead-1.4161644

On MyHome.ie today, there also appears to be c. 108 houses for sale in Dublin that have asking prices between €1m and €1.25m or c. 345 houses with asking prices over €1m.

Another possible reason could be that the number of properties for sale over €1m has fallen due to previous asking prices falling from over €1m to below €1m e.g. from €1,150,000 to €995,000 to reflect the changing market?

I’d also assume a lot of sellers may be holding back until they get a better feel for where the market is heading. They may soon take Glenveagh’s view and re-list their homes in the near future at lower prices to reflect this changed market.

I’m sure there’s many other reasons, but I don’t believe it’s an actual lack of supply at the €1m+ price level.


#436

This time last year those numbers were 142 and 424 respectively.


#437

That is interesting, thanks for this. I didn’t think it would be so pronounced the drop.


#438

The CSO Index is usually a pretty good historical record of the general trend of house prices as it tries to generate an index relevant to what people actually buy but it can fluctuate if there is a very small sample. One of the things I notice in the PPR is that the sale of a large estate of houses can have a big influence - even on the median price - I think this is more pronounced at the moment as a higher proportion of the sales being completed at the moment are new houses - simply because the houses were committed to, have been completed and are generally more expensive than 2nd hand houses. I’d look at the PPR figures (which the CSO use) for DLR and see if that’s the case. Another possibility is that people are willing to bid up as they don’t HAVE to live as near to town if they can work from home - I think we’re too early to see that shift yet.


#439

Although it’s way too early to read into that DLR number I reckon Seaside areas like Dun Laoghaire / Dalkey etc could hold up quite well in a post covid world with much more WFH. If I were allowed work a day or two from home per week I’d much rather be in an area where I can enjoy the sea at lunch or for my commute time before / after work.


#440

I’d tend to agree
The general assumption is that the trend to WFH will impact negatively on property prices - particularly in Dublin as workers will move down the country. I think this is true certainly for commercial property and apartments.
But WFH could increase demand for certain types of residential property, even in the greater Dublin area.


#441

As I’ve said before I think the impact on house prices will be slow. People buy their ‘house for life’ at a certain point, usually just before they have kids - then you’re kind of stuck - creches, schools, neighbours, support mechanisms, work places all conspire against a move even if there is a radical change. I changed jobs a lot of times and ended up with some really nasty commutes but I didn’t move house. The difference might show quicker in apartments. It depends if investors are really ‘in it for the long haul’ and how many ‘accidental’ landlords feel the need to bail out (or get forced to). A lot of the investment properties are 2 beds in and around Grand Canal Dock. These were bought with expectations of 3k per month (and more) rents - I took a look today and there are a lot who have dropped rents down to the 2400 - 2600 level and I even found a handful below 2400. Interestingly a lot of these are obviously individual rentals so I don’t think it’s the big boys bailing out. Many of these were Airbnb (and again you can see it in the ads) so they may just be trying to keep afloat till Airbnb comes back (although I suspect that will meet a perfect storm of legislation, reduced travel, and competitive hotel rates (including re-purposed student accommodation) that will effectively kill that model.

At the moment there are only a handful (11) of 2 bed apartments for sale in the area - from 385k to 685k with most in the 500ks. I think this might be the first place where you start to see change.


#442

I am a member of a FB group for a certain ex-pat community. In the past month there have been 3 rooms being offered in the general D4 area. From the prices being asked it appears there are high end 2 beds now going for less than 2100. I have been a member of this group for about a year and it was not like this before. On the other hand it also appears that people are still moving over here in numbers I would not have expected.


#443

Not an estate but a pretty big sale in July. Would this be big enough to impact DL nos?

Sandycove lockdown sale nets over €6m

Deep in the grip of lockdown a prime south Dublin property has sold in a deal that is likely to be one of the biggest residential sales of the year. Seaspray and Windward are two properties on a prime coastal site at 2 Castle Place between Sandycove and Dalkey. Following a quiet off market deal the two sold in July on a 0.44 acre site for a sum understood to be around €6.2 million.


#444

From the CSO:

“The RPPI specifically excludes non-household purchases, non-market purchases and self-builds”.