The Pretty Charts thread


#81

It’s intended to filter out clearly erroneous entries, rather than outliers per se. Can’t remember the details. I’ll check.


#82

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#83

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#84

Not sure where you got -6% YoY for the square footage? Mine is showing 0% YoY for Wicklow.
If I use the same data to calculate average house price (as opposed to price per sq.ft.) I get a 1% increase or a bit less.

But my average house price is much higher than the one in the Daft report. Wicklow has quite a high proportion of very expensive properties for sale. The Daft comparison is a hedonic regression, i.e. comparing like for like, whereas I just take the raw numbers. These could easily be skewed in a given period by a batch of expensive properties. I don’t know if that explains it, but I don’t know what else does.

While I’m at it, coming back to this:

I only take properties that give a floor area from which I can calculate a price/sq.ft, and the area is between 300 and 10,000 sq.ft., and the calculated price is between 40 and 1,000 €/sq.ft.


#85

That’s just a timing difference – Daft’s Q2 report comes out at the end of Q2, my corresponding numbers are for the start of Q3, which is the same moment in time. So my comparable figure is 0%.


#86

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#87

I am interested to see that since the end of 2015 that the total arrears amount for both BTL and Private Dwelling Houses appears to be increasing.

Do we understand a reason for why this is happening?


#88

Not sure but I could hazard a guess. See TheJackal’s usual excellent reporting on those latest CBI figures. He has links there to two other Pin discussions on residential and BTL mortgage arrears. It seems that a lot of the lenders’ “solutions” to mortgage arrears have been either arrears recapitalisations or temporary interest only arrangements. For people who are managing to get back on their feet that might be enough but there will be others for whom it will be no help at all. It may be that we are now getting down to the harder core of arrears that cannot be rehabilitated. If so there is a worryingly large amount of them. On the other hand, I think (open to correction?) the Central Bank numbers include mortgages sold to vulture funds, so the main banks may already have taken some of the hit involved by selling them off cheap.


#89

This is 100% a size of arrears effect rather than a number of arrears cases effect.

The number of arrears cases at all ages is still falling or at worst flat. However it is falling at a slower rate than in 2014 and 2015.

In the mean time the older cases are still accumulating arrears (likely with close to 100% non-repayment). While the ‘cure rate’ from people paying off arrears is no longer fast enough to offset this.

As I have posted before there are broadly two types of arrears:

  1. People who got into serious financial difficulty when unemployment hit 15%. As the economy has recovered these cases have resumed payment, used lump sums to pay down, etc
  2. Strategic defaulters who have no interest in ever repaying.

As we know it is very difficult to re-possess even the very hard cases of 2) even where there has been no repayment for several years or communication from the mortgage holder either.

As a result as time goes by the share of type 2) in the mix gets bigger.

PS: my own theory is that some ultra-low arrears cases is just people using their mortgage like an overdraft to get through Christmas or a slack point for their business. Why would you borrow commercially at 10% while you can use your tracker mortgage at 1% with no risk of having your house re-posessed?


#90

Because you might at some point want to switch mortgage provider or move house without paying cash?


#91

I know of someone who missed some mortgage payments not only because times were tight but because of the expectation of some kind of general mortgage amnesty coming down the tracks. Obviously they risked not qualifying if they had a pristine payment record, so going into arrears sounded like the canny option. Roll forward a few years and they can’t get a loan for building work because of the bad credit record.


#92

Granted.

But if your credit history is already shot you have nothing to lose.


#93

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#94

18% of what? Average? Median? Dublin? Nationwide? Apartments? Houses?


#95

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#96

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#97

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#98

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#99

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#100

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