The pendulum I am referring to is NOT a ‘tsunami of credit’ or financial engineering.
Those are secondary, and they follow the primary pendulum, which is something very difficult to quantify, by its nature. In a word, you might say that it is ‘sentiment’ regarding business activity, and no doubt that itself is a complex derivative function of such as credit cycles, debt deflationary dynamics, investment in innovations and delayed return on that investment, cumulative process, endogenous fluctuations, acceleration, failure to see cycles as inherent in free markets, hoarding tendencies, fluctuations in plant and manufacturing equipment, overproduction, amplitudes in constructional industries, random-disturbances, under- and over-consumption tendencies during booms and recessions, and so on and so forth.
The critical insight is that in economics, it is mostly meaningless to talk about ‘cause and effect’, as such laws don’t hold in a system which exhibits advanced complexity, by which I mean so complex that it is in its very nature to be practically indescribable, and non-deterministic in that economic behaviours and reactions within the system are probalistic rather than definite.
To summarise, your statement “The underlying problem is government debt” is trivial in terms of what we are talking about. It is a statement that may be true in particular narrow contexts at this particular moment in time. To my ears, it is a statement exactly similar as “the underlying problem is this rain cloud overhead” when talking about the world’s climate.
Let’s see what the consensus will be about what is “the underlying problem” in five years time. I guarantee it won’t be "government debt. I also guarantee it will be just as insignificant.