The price of Gold


#4161

I have some gold to sell if anyone is interested. Have to fund another purchase so its time for good bye. PM me if anyone is interested.


#4162

Thats one thing about Gold bugs I never understood, its damn hard to acquire, store/hide/secure and eventually sell for average person on the street in this country.
No such issues with my favorite cryptocurrency in last 4 years for me :slight_smile:


#4163

You’re clearly not a programmer :smiley:


#4164

this is peculiar and looks like it might be a mispricing opportunity; short gold and buy the gold miners…


#4165

Bloodbath today in the gold equities. Hopefully we’re seeing the capitulation phase of this bear market.


#4166

**China breaks silence on gold reserves
**

*The country’s central bank said its gold reserves were 1,658 tonnes (53.31 million fine troy ounces) as of the end of June. In April 2009, reserves were 1,054 tonnes.
*

*It is possible the gold announcement is a “one-off transparency gesture” as the IMF concludes talks this year about inclusion of its currency in its Special Drawing Rights (SDR), the IMF created currency, UBS said.
*

From what I’ve read over the years, I reallyu dont think this is what they have in reserve, I think they have a lot more but have not declared it.

cnbc.com/2015/07/18/china-br … erves.html


#4167

Who can trust the Chinese anymore than the Americans or the Brits or the technocrats running the EU for that matter, it’s a cynical world for sure. I have no doubt the numbers are bullshit.


#4168

hahahahahahaha
the gold bugs are getting truly squashed

the bearish reaction of the market to China is stupid anyway – China bought less than thought, all that means is somebody else was supporting the market at the price at the time; if China had twice as much reserves and the price hadn’t gone up then that would be bearish…

anyway, it’s still been a horrendous call by all the hard-money folk - which is important simply to instruct people that idiots like Peter Schiff and Zerohedge have not a clue what they are talking about and are fundamentally wrong when it comes to economics and money


#4169

The price of diamonds is collapsing - -> uk.businessinsider.com/the-price … ing-2015-7


#4170

I’d take gold over diamonds any day of the week.


#4171

At this rate next year will be a good time to get married.

Hedge Funds Walloped In Commodities Rout -> davidstockmanscontracorner.com/h … ties-rout/


#4172

China Surprises for a Second Time This Week With More Gold Data

bloomberg.com/news/articles/ … -gold-data

If you could only see past your nose, you would see China is playing the long game.
If China continues to release data on the regular, watch their reserves creep up without the markets having a fit.
They also decoupled from the US$ recently. This is good for the yuan. They’ll let the dollar collapse on its own.

What is it that’s making China so successful?
It manufactures, eg it adds value. Unfortunately, you are to much of a [edit] to grasp this basic economic concept.
I’ll send you Peter Schiffs books if you want?
The “markets” have been very wrong before.


#4173

you realise when they weakened it last week that was selling yuan and buying dollars?
no didn’t think so;
this thread is only a testament to how wrong you and the gold crew have been for years now; it’s embarrassing; you don’t understand gold, you don’t understand money, you don’t understand the markets … you just hold schiff up as a messiah instead of asking yourself why he’s been so wrong for so long… sad


#4174

Ye I do. Chinas move is deflationary for the US. This is the last thing the US wants.
The fact is China isn’t as concerned about the US $ anymore and they know the $ is in a bubble. They’re more concerned about the value of the Yuan against other currencies. Won’t be long until it becomes apparent QE is the only game in town for the US.


#4175

Did you borrow to purchase it?


#4176

Just to put some perspective on it.
Gold price today (in EUROS) is about 1000 dollars per ounce
Gold price 2 years ago (in Euros) was about 1025 dollars per ounce
Gold price 10 years ago (in Euros) was about 400 dollars per ounce

Take a look at the graph.
Gold price today is trending, on trend, per the last 10 years.

Short term investors are loosing. Some more than others.
Gold is a currency.
In the long term it is holding it’s own (certainly against the Euro).

goldprice.org/NewCharts/gold/ima … 9120882914

goldprice.org/NewCharts/gold/ima … 9120882914


#4177

It’s not. It’s priced in dollars. Whether you like it or not. It’s a fact. If your investability depends on making up lies then it’s just a scam.
Try and pay your taxes with a gold coin and see how it goes.

Obviously gold hasn’t worked out in recent years for investors. Here’s the five year chart.

When you tally that up against stocks or bonds, it’s a massive underperformance.

As I pointed out in this thread probably two years ago now, the real problem is comparing it against yielders (such as t-notes, divi paying stocks etc) whereas gold is negatively yielding (due to storage costs etc). Personally, I’ve done very well buying (and tipping on here) 30yr treasuries. BUT I think the balance with gold at this point is actually OK… present value of $100k in 2045 is about $44k today… so for gold to match up to treasuries (risk free rate) it needs to reach c. $2500 by 2045. The problem is that large investors have storage costs which are going to be around 1% - but lets call it 50bps to see … that gives you net costs of negative 15% so you probably need to get to around $2,900 for it to break even with treasuries… and you can leverage the treasuries very cheaply too, further increasing the potential return.

Anyway, that’s where we are, **I think the most bullish thing for gold recently has been its strong performance in the face of other commodities getting hammered. ** That’s a very good sign that supply and demand are relatively well balanced. Of course the flip side to that is that the miners have similarly gotten battered and, though gold miners certainly wouldn’t be my forte, a friend of mine was discussing some of the US metal miner’s debt which is now yielding 10%+ after recent stress… there might be better risk vs reward opportunities in those markets…

And none of that required making things up like “gold is a currency”.


#4178

Stocks and bonds are quickly becoming the back story IMHO. Gold is a fear trade, and that’s likely to make a come-back over the next couple of years as the wheels come off the folly of the CBs. The reason to own gold is to hedge against financial chaos. That’s it. The OPs point about gold was that it has held up well in Euro terms which is what most people here get paid in, and I tend to agree, I have owned gold since 2005 as part of a balanced portfolio and its up significantly. I’ll continue to accumulate when media sentiment is extremely bearish (like now). Agree about miners, I have been sizing them up over the last few months looking for the wheat among the chaff, there are some well capitalized companies with good management teams, good projects, with plenty upside in the pipelines that have been sold off significantly, I think they can go lower still however, especially if the now completely daft rally in the broader equity markets starts to finally crack up. Also, gold is the primary asset where the most amount of horseshit gets talked, by both the bulls AND the bears, its kind of like art, which is also worth stashing away if you fear the wrath of financial mayhem. First world problems.


#4179

How can you test this? Is Greece an example of financial chaos? Is Venezuela? In such an event how do you liquidate your gold holdings and if you could would you want to?
Assuming you live in Ireland the most likely scenario is bank failure coupled with sovereign default, that means the cash machines get turned off or massively curtailed and the state can no longer finance itself. With a massive dependency on the state that means chaos, how do you turn gold into food, you are going to have to liquidate it first for the limited available cash? The scenario then arises where the new Irish punt is expected and everyone converts their existing holdings to Mercedes, Gold Jewellery, Rolex watches anything valuable in order to preserve their wealth before their yoyo holdings are converted to New £IR with it’s ensuing devaluation. Once you liquidate your gold holdings the state gets it’s cut and it will want even more as Super Marios magic money is no longer available. Lots of people had that idea in ancient times, which is why archaeologists occasionally unearth caches of gold coins hidden away, their owners obviously did not survive the chaos. If you can hold it and survive the period of chaos then you can liquidate after the chaos has passed, question is can you?

If you look at what happens in Eastern Ukraine, the fighting tends to move back and over through an area for a while and then it passes, if you don’t already have a passport, how do you get one and leave? If your town or village or house gets wiped out in the shelling what do you do afterwards? Is gold in a Swiss vault any good to you then and can you continue to pay the Swiss to mind your “allocated” gold when your income has been wiped out?

I reckon the next phase of the crisis in Europe is a series of rolling sovereign defaults similar to the early 1930s.


#4180

exactly, it’s ridiculous nonsense gold bugs use to support their weird obsession…
if you get a genuine societal collapse then the people with the weapons win, not the people with the gold… the people with the weapons will take what they want!

anyway it’s a stupid scenario to “plan” for; you might as well hoard antibiotics which would be equally valuable in the armageddon scenario