The Sale Agreed Thread

Volumes are not as low as you think.

Approx 50-60 properties selling a day in Dublin. Or 1000-1200 per month :slight_smile:

But you can’t believe me as a VI.

According to the latest IBF mortgage figures, there were:

1,647 First-time Buyer Purchaser
1,055 Mover Purchaser
135 Residential Investment Letting

mortgages in Q2, 2012. These are mortgages relating to property purchase. That is 2,837 purchase related mortgages in April, May and June 2012 or an average of 945 a month for the entire country. The months will not all be the same with some increase towards the later months.

So 1,000 - 1,200 sales a month for Dublin only seems a bit high. Traditionally Dublin accounts for around 40%-50% of property sales.

Q3 sales numbers are not normally much higher than Q2 - around about 7%. So the average of 945 would increase to say 1,200 mortgages a month for the entire country allowing for a larger increase and skewing of numbers towards later months.

So either 50% of Dublin property sales are for cash only without any lending component at all or you have exceeded your normal pro-bubble bent and entered the realms of wishful thinking fantasy.

So, no I cannot believe you, vested interest or not. Unless you want to quote some numbers.

I am tracking the number of houses going sale Agreed on Myhome and daft.

For the avoidance of doubt that is the number of houses moving to Sale Agreed and than being taken down from the website. I make the assumption that once taken down the house is sold. (there are currently 2,576 properties sale agreed on Myhome. An increase of over 600 in the last 3 months.)

My system of tracking is manual and subject to error (IMO about 90% accurate). However I have noticed over the last 2 months an increase in the number of houses going sale agreed.

Perhaps some of the pinsters who are more technically savy than me would consider automating the process to provide verification. (if you can track price changes you can track sale agreeds)

Before you dismiss my comments, remember that EAs say that 40% of the current market are cash buyers and, your information is historical (mortgage down dates) and you are using lots of assumptions (I acknowledge they are reasonable assumptions) in your calculations.

MY system, perhaps?

It’s not very accurate for a host of reasons, particularly because of the delay in agents updating ads.

[1] It might be subject to much more error than you imagine (Confirmation Bias), so you should beware of relying on insights from that sort of thing for actual decision making…

[2] Making the process more rigorous and automated is indeed a good approach, for all sorts of reasons (see [1]), but won’t guarantee not having systematic errors in the input data (see Coles2’s post RE inaccuracies).

[3] See point [1] :angry:

Also note sloppy phrasing “40% of the current market” can even be true but doesn’t strictly mean that 40% of transactions are cash buyers (could have 40% of people looking at houses being prospective cash buyers, but the people who rush in and actually buy each month are the mortgage-funded buyers who are getting nervous about interest relief and so on…)

It’s very easy to fool ourselves (and that can apply both to bulls and bears).

Why would you make that assumption? Do you have any data to back it up?

So if a sale falls through and then relists with another agent a short time later, you double-count?

The purpose of tracking the information was to give me a feel for the level of actual sales. It is not perfect and is at best a relative measure.

The point I made (and I think EvilAl and FirstBass too) would be to think what might your process be at worst.

I would say that at worst it becomes a trap where you find yourself in a feedback loop fueled by confirmatory information that fits with your current worldview. For bears, reading on the 'pin may be something similar at times.

The one thing I really appreciate in posts here is when people do top work pulling together graphs and unearthing solid quantitative data. It doesn’t guarantee unbiased analysis, but I would see it as a prerequisite for rigour.

Colonel Pyat

+1

Particularly on the sterling work done by JXBR, Coles2 and others

:blush: aw-shucks…

+1 to the requests for you to share the data.

Presumably you have this in Excel or similar so why not share with your fellow pinsters?

I’m going to start tracking this. I am highly sceptical of Landlord’s “50-60 a day” number.

OK, this is easily settled.

Here is a google docs sheet with all 1839 properties on Daft that are Sale Agreed in Dublin as of 1815 today. All we have to do is wait 24 hours and 50-60 of those will be gone, right Landlord?

I will try and add Myhome later. Getting the data is OK thanks to Coles’s earlier post, but clashing the two to eliminate duplicates is trickier.

A note on the quality of the data: these are unique daft ads. I have not checked for duplicate ads, ie 2 ads for the same property. These have been marked as “Sale Agreed” in the Daft system, but this may miss ads where the agent or Vendor has not properly done this (ie just written “Sale agreed” in the body of the ad but not marked it as agreed in the Daft control panel).

EA don’t really update at the weekend.

Perhaps we should wait till Monday and repeat each day till next Friday to get a better idea of inter week variability.

Myhome has a larger population size of approx 2600 but scaling should produce a range for Daft of 160-200.

OK, so to be clear, when you say “50-60 a day” what you meant was “50-60 per business day”, or 30% less.

Any other caveats you’d like to throw out there before 6pm? :smiley:

Tracking ‘Sale Agreed’ properties isn’t very accurate. I tried it once and gave up. Firstly there is a significant delay between properties going ‘agreed’ and being listed as such. Some properties never get listed as ‘agreed’ and just get removed from the listings when they sell. A problem with looking through the older listings is that some properties are listed while others are removed altogether.

The most recent ‘sale agreed’ figures (this weeks listings say) are absolutely worthless. It only shows up a handful. But if you were you look at this week in 2 months time you would find a way larger number listed as sale agreed for this same period.

No doubt there is a better way to do it.

is every home liable to the 1% stamp duty levy,
if it was, and we knew roughly the average price of a house,
then surely we back out a very rough guess at the number of houses sold per day
from the monthy stamp duty figures. Maybe :confused:

Tracking Sale Agreed ads can be accurate, it’s just not very useful. I completely agree. I just want to see whether Landlord’s figures are even accurate, let alone useful.

Come on Guys give Landlord a break, I love someone giving the other side of the arguement and I am sure most here do!

Sometimes though it seems like we are like wolves on a little rabbit…

Personally I think the level of sales have gone up since last year…Dont have figures but everything I watch is being sold quicker than last year… Everything… Then again my search is very specific…

I had a quick look at the sale agreeds, some of them seem to be on as Sale agreed for a long time…
Also some of the supposedly Sale agreed are showing up as Sold…so???

Have to agree, evilal did you write a script to pull those Sale agreeds from Daft or was it manual…?

Well, if he used MY system, then they probably aren’t! :blush: