The scary chart thread


#241

Nod = Notice of default, the first stop in foreclosure . Not every default lead to Foreclosure .

Foreclosure = Repossession .

California had a Moratorium on Foreclosure , like we do here. The moratorium is over .

From DoctorHousingBubble.com


#242

US Freight Traffic By Railway . Gross Statistics June 2009

From

railfax.transmatch.com/

Major Commodity Groups Total Grain Chemicals Food Forest Metals Coal Autos Intermodal
Current Week
Vs. 2008 (20.8%) (23.8%) (16.3%) (10.7%) (26.7%) (53.8%) (9.2%) (51.1%) (20.1%)
Vs. 2007 (21.3%) (22.2%) (13.9%) (8.8%) (33.2%) (57.7%) (6.7%) (60.2%) (19.8%)
4 Week Rolling Avg.
Vs. 2008 (22.1%) (23.1%) (16.5%) (10.8%) (30.0%) (55.0%) (13.1%) (52.3%) (19.1%)
Vs. 2007 (22.5%) (14.0%) (14.1%) (10.6%) (35.8%) (55.1%) (12.8%) (61.2%) (18.8%)
Quarter to Date
Vs. 2008 (22.2%) (25.2%) (16.9%) (12.9%) (30.2%) (54.6%) (14.6%) (49.7%) (18.9%)
Vs. 2007 (22.5%) (14.0%) (15.2%) (12.1%) (36.9%) (56.1%) (11.3%) (59.4%) (19.2%)
Year to Date
Vs. 2008 (18.8%) (24.3%) (17.1%) (11.6%) (28.4%) (48.3%) (8.6%) (50.6%) (16.7%)
Vs. 2007 (18.8%) (11.1%) (15.0%) (10.1%) (36.5%) (49.6%) (4.8%) (57.2%) (17.7%)

https://railfax.transmatch.com/railfax7.gif

and What Do You Do with 2000 Miles of Empty Freight Wagons ???


#243

Ladies and Gents

I’m looking for two graphs.

One that shows the average wage vs average house price in Ireland.
The other shows a selection of countries compared against each other.
I think it showed Ireland as having house prices 14 - 16 times the average indstrial wage.

Also if anyone has a chart that shows just average house price increases and where they deviated off increases for inflation (around 1995 I think?)

Thanks


#244

Yo!

Average house prices going back years are in this spreadsheet

environ.ie/en/Publications/S … 277,en.XLS

also see

environ.ie/en/Publications/S … 295,en.XLS

and page 64 on Loan To Value rations below .

environ.ie/en/Publications/S … 371,en.pdf

you may download some of that data as a ready made spreadsheet from here

cso.ie/px/Doehlg/Database/Do … istics.asp

Now to Incomes .

After tax income has varied a lot over the years, that is why this comparator is not set in stoone , but here we go.

Household Incomes ( post 2000)

Most Recent Incomes ( 2006) by county

Average Income and Average DISPOSABLE Income After Tax from 2003

That enough for ya ??


#245

Where do you get these ? That trains data and the foreclosure stuff is genuinely worrying.


#246

I attributed both posts!


#247

Thanks 2Pack!


#248

Look at these ABX and CMBX charts.

https://sf.markit.com/cache/curves/cfdb4a3dc59ed699aba0c36c71d.png
markit.com/en/products/data/ … rices.page?

https://sf.markit.com/cache/curves/28d7b7bba46a0674ff252b8ef9f.png
markit.com/en/products/data/ … rices.page?

ABX has fallen back to Armageddon levels, while CMBX AAA are also likely to go down further. The ABX indices are based on credit default swaps (CDS) for various tranches of subprime mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The CMBX is a CMBS (Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities) credit default index.

More volatility in the stock market upcoming…


#249

daftwatch.atspace.com/daft_commercial.html
https://daftwatch.atspace.com/daftcommercial_c1.gif
daftwatch.atspace.com/daftcommercial_c1.gif

https://daftwatch.atspace.com/daftcommercial_c2.gif
daftwatch.atspace.com/daftcommercial_c2.gif

https://daftwatch.atspace.com/daftcommercial_c4.gif
daftwatch.atspace.com/daftcommercial_c4.gif

NAMA is going to have a tough job getting much back from the commercial development loans with the glut of empty offices retail and industrial units.


#250

Note, that chart of ABX is for, I believe, Home Equity loans which are the most distressed, but you’ll see the same stress levels in all the other charts relative to recent performance.


#251

Shadow Foreclosure Inventory

This is the gap between what the banks end up repoing and what they put on the market and ONLY in the Bay Area . Much of what they try to sell fails to sell…but thats another chart another day .

https://imgs.sfgate.com/c/pictures/2009/04/07/ba-shadow0408_gr_SFCG1239149542.jpg

Explanation

sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c … 16UG90.DTL


#252

That “Shadow Inventory” concept should be studied well by our friends in NAMA.


#253

https://www.itulip.com/images/pce1947-Jun2009.gif

itulip.com/forums/showthread … post106493


#254

economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/0 … harts.html

Note the savings vs personal consumption chart


#255

I see two seperate charts right? Savings up and personal consumption down. That’s a good thing right? People saving money means they won’t be in as much debt? Is this related to contributing to the deflationary spiral?


#256

That looks like a St Louis Fed chart , they have a feast of them on their website and some made them onto this thread before.

The US has not had a net savings balance since world war two . Here is the chart referred to in the last two posts , this is money that is not being spent , yes. In every other recession expenditure continued to rise.

4.bp.blogspot.com/_pCDyiFUv9XU/S … %2BYOY.png


#257


#258

Hey WGU, you got the original article for that chart handy?


#259

nytimes.com/2009/07/06/busin … .html?_r=1


#260

Cheers! :wink: