The scary chart thread


More numbers and charts than you can shake a stick at:




Here’s a very cool bunch of animated charts about business cycles in the US since the 1970s (hat tip to The last chart offers some hope of a recovery but the downturn of the past year has been unprecedented in modern times. Who really know where we go from here?

I wish we had an Irish version of this thread. It would probably be the most volatile in the world.


As I understand it the ‘increase in savings’ is not what it appears to be, rather it is related to the decrease in spending.
One naturally thinks that saving money means putting it away for the future; in economic terms, allocating capital for future use.

Unfortunately, what appears to be happening is that these current ‘savings’ are actually going to pay down debt. While this is a good thing it is not the same as reserving capital for future obligations, rather a panic measure indicating the current levels of debt. This is also mirrored in the current levels of consumption.
The yanks are pulling back hard on spending and the difference (‘saving’) is being used ot pay down debt, not provide for future consumption. Thus, one can surmise that the current fall in consumption (see the rail traffic charts, above) are not a passing phase but a (Cough! Cough!!) new paradigm.

Read this way, we have massive levels of personal indebtedness and no ability to provide for future expenses.
It is The American Dream (in the sense that they are living in a dream) writ large.


This was posted on Calculated Risk, thought it was illustrative, and yes the US residential construction industry does look like it may be bottoming out. … s-and.html


S&P inflation adjusted earnings:

Stock price bubble? What stock price bubble?


That looks horrific…


Don’t know where that chart comes from…


US Real House Price Index and Moody’s Forecast.


Can we see that without the log scale on the vertical axis? Does it make much of a difference?


Long term government bond yields
Legend ( Series: 2009m06 ) … 0&plugin=0

Darker colour is higher


belarus or berlin…


Courtesy of Some Assembly Required: … -h/gdp.JPG

More a table than a chart, I’ll grant you.

If only our government was as good at turning real economy terrible numbers into not quite bad numbers with some sleight of hand… and a chequebook.

#273 … ic-charts/


Debt Man Walking

More graphs in the article and some interesting analysis.


The US Commercial Paper Market from FT Alpha . What is commercial paper ?? Short term borrowing but longer term than an overdraft.

#276 … 93308.aspx

#277 … in-context


NY Fed Launches Interactive Maps Of Economic Collapse


Five Financial Stocks Dominate Market Volume


I’ve looked back through this thread but I can’t find a chart I was interesting in showing to some people where it shows Irish Government indebtedness for the last 50 years or so and it shows how it increased sharply during the boom and then (the cut-de-grass) it shows how our indebtedness will soar if NAMA goes ahead as proposed. I’d really love to show that graph to a few people because it really puts that 90 billion in perspective. 90 billion is stack-overflow money to most people - they don’t know if its a lot of money for a government our size to be paying. Before I saw this graph I’m talking about I wasn’t sure myself just how bad the situation was. That graph scared the living daylights out of me when I saw how it would roughly triple our public indebtedness.

Does anybody know the graph I mean? Can they provide a link?

EDIT - aha! I’ve found it again