I fucking hate this thread!
I fucking hate myself for posting in it!
Anyway - thems the breaks:
Euro area M3 gone negative
I got this far…
…and could go no further. What does the graph mean in 4 letter words and short sentences?
In short companies are de-leveraging and banks are repairing their balance sheets, also the flight from the Euro probably has much to do with it.
M3 is a broad measure of money supply. In general it is assumed that if Money Supply grows quicker than the rate of growth in the productive capacity then inflation will result. The opposite applies in that if Money Supply falls below the rate of growth in the economy, deflation will result. This theory is controversial and its adherents are known as monetarists. (They make no comment on the role of government, by the way). The standard prescription of monetarists to inflation is a severe restriction of money supply growth, usually through central bank operations, but also by modifying government expenditure, which is a large component of GDP/GNP in a modern economy.
The chart shows that large Money Supply Growth was allowed during the financial crises, to ensure liquidity in the system, and that the ECB is now moving to reduce and remove the excess growth in Money Supply, due I suspect to inflation concerns.
I would expect Euribor rates to move up in next few months as a consequence, which will suppress demand and reduce impending inflation.
I am sure that some of the movement may also represent destocking, reducing credit terms, and , deleveraging in the economy, as banks and companies repair balance sheets, which is part of the normal economic cycle.
But hey; on the plus side it looks like the Economists in various Governments have finally gotten a scenario together where we can put to bed at least one branch of their ‘science’.
The UK guys decided the way out was to print truck loads of money.
the Asian guys decided to save & cut spending,
& the half the Euro zone has decided to ride it out, while the other half is spending money like drunken sailors.
Thanks for that OO.
That one looks even less scary than it should be, as it doesn’t take population sizes into account:
That was my very first thought too. Terrifying how big our blob is…basically the same size as Spain and Italy…and (gulp) almost twice te size of Portugal and Greece combined… …WTF? And does this include private sector debt? I don’t think so and ours must surely dwarf most other countries. Jesus H. Christ, how the fuck are we not ahead of Greece in the queue for Armageddon? We look immeasurably more fucked than them.
The first question you have to ask is where is the source of this “Irish” debt? Is a very large chunk of it in foregin banks operating out of the IFSC? Does this then qualify in any meaningful way as “Irish” debt? Always get the full story.
^^ Actually Mike, yeah I’d forgotten about that. It probably is not as bad as it seems.
I didn’t so much think about the population issue as the different countries GDPs.
Mike is right though about a large chunck of debt being related to the IFSC.
And then take away the multinationals (GNP):
google.com/publicdata?ds=wb- … TA:PRT:ESP
It is, I believe, already ex IFSC, otherwise the figure would be 1.4 trillion dollars.
The multinationals account for about half of it through inward investment. Mind you, other countries too have external investment…
Whichever way you slice it, it leaves a shockingly large figure.
So how big is the figure without the ISFC? And what are the figures for Spain, Greece and Portugal as regards external investment?
I’m a bit nervous at this hand-waving.
Global systemic crisis – From « Eurozone coup d’Etat » to the tragic solitude of the United Kingdom, the pace of global geopolitical dislocation accelerates -> leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-45-is-ava … a4666.html