That’s a good sign (from the dollar’s point of view) is it not?
Here’s a dozen or so from ZeroHedge (doing something of a Bertieism) to cheer you all up …
Well, no…not really.
I think we can expect to see US corporate earnings decline sharply on the back of this and consequent stock market tankage.
This is what people understand and this is what will begin to cause problems.
The penultimate chart really sums up QE, it’s effects and sustainability.
Ehhh no, thats not a good sign. A lot of the recent uptick in the US was the repatriation of jobs etc from China with the low $ski , now the $ski is bucking the virtous trend innit like.
What is $ski?
Anyway, is labour cost etc. still the basis of the whole deal?
Take GE who have been creating thousands of new manufacturing jobs in the US for the past five years, and are rehabbing factories that haven’t been used in 15 years etc.
Their PR says that “new business models have emerged that give rise to a broader set of metrics” than just labour costs.
They say that in places like Asia, former suppliers of whole products are now competitors and these competitors improving their lines and lowering their prices give rise to new challenges…
Also, shipping and materials costs were rising, and wages increasing, and they didn’t have control of the supply chain.
Also, core competency was an issue.
They say that when such as innovative appliance-design work is to the fore, and speed to market is everything, that separating design and development from manufacturing didn’t make sense anymore.
They say what is driving the reversion to manufacturing in the US mostly, are these three things:
- Developing real in-house innovation capability .
- Lean manufacturing. (Putting all designers, engineers, and assembly-line workers together, giving them ownership of the metrics, allowing them determine the best way to meet their goals, rewarding them for driving down manufacturing hours per unit, less parts, less weight, lower material costs, less space needed to manufacture etc.)
- New models of labour relations (US based).
Of course, this only applies to some parts of their business, not all (or even the majority as things stand today) - it still makes sense to outsource plenty towards competitive advantage.
But this is gradually changing (they say).
Or am I just being naive to think there may be something in this?
There is something in it all right but the something could be rapidly undone by an inexorably rising $ski .
What you described was the period from c.2008 to 2013 when the $ski was lower and manufacturing in the US increasingly started to make sense again. Over the same period wages in China have at least doubled and manufacturing has moved ‘off’ the coast and further inland in response to this rise…which drastically affects logistics and costs.
If you look at the $ski chart it is tracking wage rises in China in a way ( co incidentally) and any disimprovement in Chinese wages is tracked by a commensurate disimprovment in the $ski position.
3800 charts at one link.
We’re #4 in the world. That’s scary.
(Possibly NSFW - infographic contains rude words)
Edit: Also, imgur.com/0DBo3GO.jpg
Well you can’t download food yet… curiously any charts with comparative birth rates of the various countries?
Hey we’re number one in this one!
Taken from the RBS “sell everything” missive.
uk.businessinsider.com/rbs-sell- … ing-2016-1
Óle, óle, ,óle, óle…
On a day when EVERYTHING dropped. Commodities, NYSE, China Stocks, Baltic Dry and Sterling for starters.
This was on bloomberg a week ago.
Seems to me at the start of Q4 2016 everything is as mad as ever – rents crazier than ever, house prices climbing steeply again, mortgage arrears still crazy high (more charts here):
Coronavirus revives this thread.
See our future here. At least to the end of this month. Ireland will then be where Italy is today in terms of cases per million i.e. we’ll have 1,200 confirmed cases.
How many will need treatment in an ICU?
Hat-tip to Mightyzhttp://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/14mar2020/covid-eu-norm3.png