POST CLEAN UP PENDING
From@ingo_keck, analysis showing the entire 3rd wave in Germany is correlated tightly with vaccine doses Blue: 7-day average cases Green: (rescaled) vaxx doses 17 days in future Basically, since the 2nd week of February, case numbers are 3-7% of vaxx doses from 17 days ago
12:36 PM · Apr 21, 2021·Twitter Web App
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Replying to @eugyppius1
Previously I’d posited a much more direct connection, rising cases within 48 hours of vaccination. But this is vastly more plausible and casts totally new light on the phenomenon. The 17-day delay % high numbers (3-7%) suggest that some subset of the vaxxed …
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…are made contagious (or more contagious?) by the vaccine. These are people who either have persistent asymptomatic infections, and are made symptomatic spreaders; or they are made uniquely more susceptible to infection for a time following the vaccine.
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17 days are then enough time for secondary and tertiary infections from the vaccinated contagious to make their wany into the statistics.
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This is really weird and not even sure i understand. Just for my understanding: the correlation shown is between number of doses on day T and new-positive-cases on day T+17?
Yes, since mid-February until this moment, case numbers are 3-7% of vaccine doses administered 17 days before those numbers were reported.
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Replying to @eugyppius1 and @ingo_keck Any guesses as to what the mechanism would be? Spurious positives?
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If there’s any natural variability in the speed of a person’s immune response to vaccine and that immune response is what’s causing increased spread, a narrow temporal spike of vaccinations should produce a much wider spike of infections weeks later. Right?
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This is incredible! It lines up perfectly!
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creepy right
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Warum variiert es eigentlich zwischen 3-7%, wenn es scheint nach der Skalierung identisch zu sein?
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7% für die gesamten Positiv-Fälle, 3% für die Fälle wo ein Symptombeginn angegeben ist (ca. 50% aller Fälle).
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Replying to @eugyppius1 and @ingo_keck
How did it pan out?
Relationship disappeared with the arrival of spring weather / the end of human coronavirus season.
Correct. Same as last year and in other EU countries. Also I have now data segregated into age groups but did not have the time to include this in the analysis.