Happy Bailout Birthday!!!
Two years after bailout, we’re in an even worse state, economists warn
IRELAND’S economic future is bleaker than ever, two years after the country was bailed out, financial experts have warned.
It was this day two years ago that a beleaguered Brian Cowen and the late Brian Lenihan signed over Ireland’s financial sovereignty for the sum of €85bn.
Richard Tol, the former ESRI economist was rather scathing
A lot of Irish people are a lot poorer and the Irish State has built up an enormous pile of debt.
It is pretty obvious that Ireland is much worse off than it was a couple of years ago.
The major issue which is affecting Ireland’s chances of recovery, according to Tol, is the failure to implement economic reforms such as privatisation in the energy sector.
We’re still paying way too much for electricity and gas. The Minister for Energy (Pat Rabbitte) is pretending this is not a problem, (he is) still working for the unions and not the people.
So in that sense Ireland hasn’t changed. It’s just a bit poorer and a lot more debt.
Then he said
If you compare the Irish economy now to what it was a couple of years ago, nothing much has changed. If you look at Irish politics, nothing much has changed.
We have muppets with different names and different faces in the Dail but they’re still muppets.
On to the ever cheery Gurdgiev:
From the beginning of this crisis, the transfer should not have taken place. Except for that, we would not have needed a bailout in the first place.
What we’re having right now is emergency austerity which means we are not undertaking structural reforms. We are not making this economy more sustainable in the long run.
Eddie Hobbs joins the party a bit late
We are in a worse state because we have borrowed more money
Overall, we’re screwed. The idea that we can trade our way out is nonsense
Things have become more stable, but things have not really improved.
We have several elephants in the room that nobody wants to mention…
Home mortgages that have not chance of being repaid
Public Sector Pensions - we cannot afford them
Private sector pensions - many are insolvent
The Debt Mountain
There are many more issues, these alone are pretty bad, and not getting better.
The idea that when we get out of the bailout everything will improve is plain bonkers.
Our debt is €130bn, tax revenues are about €30bn, how long before the tax revenue does not cover the interest on the debt. The whole state will be am Interest Only BTL.
If the debt was wiped, how long would it take us to get back to where we are now, a decade?
the more this goes on and the more I learn the less and less inclined I am to purchase a house.
Well it’s all going to come down to the OMT program; it’s obvious that the ECB needs to finance us at something close to the base rate and be willing to do so in unlimited size and forever.They won’t even need to actually do it, they’ll just need to commit to doing it and the market will take it there. Has to happen or it will all end in war so hopefully the politicians and central bankers realise this soon.