Thread for Dublin demographics and mortality


#1

Its a badly neglected topic on here, seeing as house prices are largely a function of demographics.


#2

To sustain excess demand the Government would permit excessive immigration if that is what is required to keep house prices high.


#3

Was having a chat with my son last night and on the above point, I said to him that I reckoned the next scam our “great leaders” will play, is just as you say above. In fact with all the upheaval in Iraq, Syria etc, those displaced by the Islamic State neanderthals, will possibly be offered sanctuary here. So expect a load of Iraqi, Syrian, or Kurdish refugees to an area near you ( unless you live in D4/6 etc)

Edit spelling.


#4

The immigration might not be all that powerful in the face of rising mortality.

In any case, the immigration angle has certainly not been neglected on this site.

There’s more to demographics than immigration.


#5

Mortality rates are falling in Ireland hence , despite the population rising significantly, the number of deaths each year has been falling.
Data below is from CSO website:
year, deaths per 1,000, total deaths
1950 12.7 37.7k
1960 11.5 32.7k
1970 11.4 33.7k
1980 9.8 33.5k
1990 9.0 31.4k
2000 8.3 31.4k
2010 6.1 28.0k
2012 6.3 28.8k
2012 was last year on CSO records

Note also that household sizes have been falling:
1980 3.7 per HH
2004 2.9 per HH
2011 2.7 per HH (Dublin was 2.62 per HH)
EU average = 2.3 per HH
At the 2011 census there were 1,271,036 people in Dublin, 484,735 occupied houses and 42,930 vacant
At 2.5 per HH in Dublin there’d be 508,414 occupied and just 19,250 vacant (a vacancy rate of just 3.65% . UCD Urban Institute estimate an appropriate rate for Dublin to be approx 5.5%)
Will HH in Ireland tend to the EU average?


#6

All of which will tie in neatly with the Irish Times/“Aeon” O’Riordan campaign to end Direct Provision and allow asylum seekers to work (or claim full social welfare/rent allowance etc). Expect a huge increase in numbers arriving into the State if they get their way.


#7

Of 7644 deaths in April - June 2013, only 1021 were in Dublin city.

Obviously this situation of a mere 13% of Ireland’s deaths happening in Dublin will not persist indefinitely.

At some point, for every 7644 deaths in the state, 2545 will be in Dublin. That’s a 149% increase, right?


#8

So a fall in national mortality will not translate into a fall in Dublin mortality over the coming decades. We are currently living in a period where an unsustainable lull in mortality is taking place .


#9

The 2011 census put the population of Dublin City at 527,617
The 1,021 deaths in Dublin City in a quarter that you quote would equate to 7.74 deaths per 1,000, well above the national average of 6.3.
Is the mortality rate in Dublin really 22.9% higher than the national average or is it a blip, seasonal or otherwise, and we can expect the number of deaths in Dublin to fall back towards the national average?


#10

:laughing:
Yeah, people have decided to put off dying for a bit. It was a nice Summer after all and we don’t get them every year.


#11

I made this post on another topic a while back:

***** There’s actually over 2000 houses in the parish according to the census, to my surprise.

I was planning to follow it up with a bit of analysis but I just don’t have the time to properly crunch the numbers- they’re all available on the census site if anyone doubts the gist of my point. I can confirm that large swathes of SCD have been experiencing Leitrimesque rates of depopulation since at least 1996, from when the easily accessible statistics are online, despite the fact that many new-builds (usually infill or small apartment complexes) were constructed in those areas during that period. At the same time the city centre and inner suburbs have been showing large increases. There are some outliers like parts of Dundrum where the population almost doubled between 2006 and 2011 due to large-scale new developments but the general theme is of young people being forced into smaller, newer, lower quality accommodation (far from the city if you have kids, closer in if you don’t) while the older stock is under-utilised or just empty.

Filter these two maps by electoral division and compare:

census.cso.ie/sapmap/
census.cso.ie/sapmap2006/


#12

I think these are very valid points.

Visa/Border control is as much about responsible Economic management as is controlling central bank interest rates for example. Yet since we’ve handed over most of the key aspects if not all of sovereignty to the EU, thus we have outsourced much of the day to day management of our own affairs to the EU (including Waging WAR… we are no longer neutral people) we have no choice but to be a kind of clearing house or an economic washing machine we are the contents someone else choosing the spin cycle.

If there are groups who view the State as a permanent lifeboat then they need to outline their understanding of the parameters of the lifeboat to know it’s carrying capacity. No one ever talk about were we get the money from. Who pays for the social sweeties?

There are many disconnect still have waiting to been closed off which leaves a still festering economic and social open wound. Meanwhile migrant populations are rotating per the wandering economic cycles of boom and bust of which this island is a permanent recipient.

The Banks went bust for coal and steel.


#13

My read of the greater Dublin commuter zone is that it has 35% of the deaths against 39% of the populace. I was not aware that the zone labelled Dublin city had such a tiny share of the populace of the total area.


#14

davidmcwilliams.ie/2014/04/0 … -296498321

David Mc above ,
Some very interesting demographics in there .

It was said on another thread recently that parts of Dublin are like a waiting room for a graveyard.
Lots of the houses in my area are executor sales or Nursing home movers etc


#15

I wonder if shifting Dublin demographics will see an increase in the number of people per household in the next census.


#16

Is it recorded by place of residence or place of death?

Dublin has a lot of hospitals, which contain a lot of sick and injured people, some of them terminally so. Since these hospitals include several of the major ones that deal with hard cases, it will also get transfers of people from outside the city who are at greater risk of dying.

Of Co. Dublin’s big public hospitals, I think only Tallaght and maybe St Vincent’s (which is very close to the Dublin City-DLR boundary, I’m not sure which side) are outside Dublin City.

Dublin could well be importing deaths (particularly from South Dublin, Fingal and DLR), which could skew the figures.


#17

Vincents is inside the City.


#18

I don’t know how it’s recorded but I’d imagine place of residence. If it was place of death then you’d find towns with no hospital having extremely low mortality rates not to mention the confusion that could arise if someone died in an ambulance on the way to hospital


#19

Besides demographics family profiles also have an impact

Marital breakdown creates new households as one spouse moves out.
It’s also the a serious cause of poverty as two incomes go from maintaining one home to two homes…

Divorce rates in Ireland have been below the EU average but that is changing slowly as church attendance declines


#20

Add in the number of separated couples to that figure.