Thread for Dublin demographics and mortality


#21

Technically correct but misleading. Separation is just being swapped for divorce, but I don’t think that the number of households is actually changing because of it. Long-running studies elsewhere have shown that the introduction of divorce does’t change the number of marriages that break down; it just puts things on a more official footing and helps lift the women out of poverty in some cases where previously they would have been at the mercy of the men to provide some financial support.


#22

Interesting divorce stats in this blog post.

randalolson.com/2014/10/10/w … -marriage/


#23

For the serious student…

amazon.com/gp/product/080581 … UTF8&psc=1


#24

ahem

Scroll up…


#25

OK… I’ll edit the above text with a link to a book mentioned in the comments…


#26

Dave is talking generally about young people in his most recent article but a few stats jumped out at me.

Where’s all the “pent up demand” coming from then?


#27

Sauce.

One wonders how emigration affects this graph.


#28

I agree. It would be fantastic to have an update on that with 2014 stats alright.
I imagine that the bulge around 0-5yrs is there still up to 8yrs now.
But interestingly I reckon the dip in people in their early-20s must be even more pronounced.
But even by 2011 you can see clearly how the recession and “Ireland’s Pressure Relief Valve” of emigration hollowed out that part of the demographic in early-20s. Surely they would have been the “home-buyers” of the next 5 to 10 years?


#29

i.picasion.com/pic73/3096b11cc947038b64ba63bb80cbaed0.gif

i.picasion.com/pic73/4e6ae49d7c4e5ed9280dd9a86121a921.gif

i292.photobucket.com/albums/mm9/Coles-01/Demographics2008-2013_zps37bb0916.jpg


#30

These are some notes on Dublin demographics.

Demographics changes are one of the major factors affecting the demand for residential property. Failure to understand this and take account of these changes or to allow a functioning market do the work for you for free will just lead to problems. This is already happening and will just get worse.

The CSO publish regional demographic data - PEA07 Estimated Population by Age Group, Sex, Regional Authority Area and Year cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire … language=0 contains estimated data for the years 1996 to 2014 grouped by 5 year age cohort.

It would be easier if the CSO had published population numbers for each year rather than 5 year age cohort.

The animated GIF shows the numbers of males and females in the 5 year age cohorts for the years 1996 to 2014. Females are shown in red on the left and males in blue on the right.

I have highlighted with a red border the key property buying/causing property to be bought cohorts of ages 20-49.

The animated GIF is pretty but does not really show that much. To get real insight you have to go deeper into the data.

The one observation from it that is very evident is the consistent difference between the population numbers in the 15-19 age group and those in the 20-24 group. This difference remains for subsequent age cohorts. The bulge is due to migration into Dublin in all its forms.

The profile for the entire country would not be as pronounced as it is for Dublin.

Bear in mind that the population is shown in age groups over single years. For example, those aged 20-24 in 2000 will be aged 21-25 in 2001. So the 20-24 cohort in 2001 contains those aged 19-23 in 2000, less those that have died and including/excluding net migration.

There is clearly an error in the 1996 numbers, possibly because of a reclassification of what was included in the Dublin regional area.

Because this shows population for the Dublin region, changes include both internal and external net migration: people within Ireland moving to Dublin and those outside Ireland moving to Dublin or those outside, having moved to outside Dublin, move again to Dublin. It also includes temporary migrants such as third-level students as well as those from outside Dublin who move to take up employment. However, even third-level students near somewhere to live.

It is also net migration and shows the changed after both immigration and emigration.

These charts show estimates of net migration, that is, the change in population after deaths have been taken into account. The death rates come from the latest Irish Life Table which is the Irish Life Tables No. 15 2005-2007 and is available at cso.ie/en/media/duplicatecso … shlife.pdf.

The migration numbers are just simple and quick estimates. Because the age data is in cohorts measured over single years, the migration numbers are not fully accurate. Migration is estimated as the difference between the number for a given age cohort if the only change was due to death less the actual number in the cohort for the next year

For example, the expected numbers in age cohort 20-24 in year 2000 is the estimated number aged 19-23 in year 1999. The number aged 19 is estimated at one fifth of the cohort 15-19 for 1999 and the number aged 20-23 is estimated as four fifths of the cohort 20-14 in 1999. Those aged 24 in 1999 will be aged 25 in 2000 and will moved to the 25-29 cohort.

This assumes that in any given cohort, the numbers are equal for each year in that cohort. This is not accurate.

A more detailed estimate would require fitting an age curve to the cohort and I have not got the time. It has been some time since I did any work on population projections and I would have to dust down my aged code to do this. For the very limited audience of this analysis and the very limited interest, this is not worthwhile.

This chart shows the net estimated migration by year for 1998-2014 for the Dublin area for males within each age cohort from 5 to 85. Estimating migration in the 0-4 and 85 + age groups in more difficult and largely pointless.

The Y axis shows the estimated migration colour-coded in thousands as shown in the legend at the base of the chart. Not unsurprisingly, most migration occurred in the age groups 20-39. Net migration virtually stopped in 2009. It has started to pick-up in 2014.

The chart shows both positive and negative net migration. The negative values are under the X plane and not easy to see without rotating the chart.

This chart shows net estimated female migration for Dublin for the same interval.

This chart estimated shows combined male and female net migration for Dublin for the same interval.

Net estimated migration into Dublin peaked at 17,813 in the age group 20 - 24 years in 2007,

In 2014, the estimated net migration for this age group was -3,589.

If I had time, I would make the migration charts prettier.

The resumption of net migration into Dublin could be taken as a sign of recovery.

It is also an indicator of demand for residential properties which is why I keep banging on about the need for more supply rather than an artificial choking of demand which will only be damaging to the economy.


#31

bumping this for new CSO data

https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2019pressreleases/pressstatementregionalpopulationprojections2017-2036/

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rpp/regionalpopulationprojections2017-2036/

With international migration into Ireland of 20,000 persons per annum and internal migration inflows to Dublin from the other regions, the population of Dublin is expected to increase by 31.9%, from 1.34 million in 2016 to 1.76 million persons by 2036, representing 31.6% of the State total. With the same level of international migration into Ireland, but this time accompanied by population movement from Dublin to other regions, the population of Dublin is expected to increase by just 11.6% to 1.49 million persons by 2036. In this scenario, the Mid-East region is projected to show the strongest population gains, increasing by 35.6% from 690,900 persons in 2016 to 937,100 persons by 2036.”