time machine

Ah time, but what is time? just another dimension?an evolutionary necessary human psychological construct? In 2 million years of human existence we have gone from fighting for the best cave to house our families to working our asses off away from families to pay for a massively overpriced dwelling. I wonder if the amost inevitable other intelligent civilisations in this universe would have an obsession with material goods and fancy dwellings and fighting for the abundant resources all around us.

Bears 1 , Bulls Nil :laughing:

Well said Rd :wink:

… and how many of you eejits didn’t have money on Caher Flow in the 2:15 @ Thurles yesterday? Came in at 33/1 for God’s sake :wink:

daltonr you wouldnt have to live in the gaff that you buy in 2001.
you could still live in the opulence you surround yourself with now.
What i mean is that you could have rented out the 2001Gaff and still rent the gaff you have at the moment.
No difference in lifestyle for you , you would just have had an appreciating assset ( for 5 years ) which is earning you income in the background.
Ssurely its better to have such an asset than not?
Maybe i am missing something , most of the contributors here seem to be wealth-averse… im just trying to figure out why.

what? i dont understand what you are asking? there was some property out there in 05 that was worth buying , thats why i said maybe. as for 06 and 07 nope , not for me.

Is all that debt really wealth, or is It more a case of fur coat and no knickers.

And keeping on topic!
Banks may have trouble getting the knickers of a bare arse in the months and years to come.

Bush style :laughing:

i think the more relevant question 2gaffes is this:

if you came back in a time machine from 2015 would you buy at current prices (or even 2001 prices)??

if I had a DeLorean i’d give it a bash but VW don’t make a Passat that does the old space time continuum thang

You’re missing the point totally 2Gaffs.

In 2001, buying that 3-bed semi in D9 carried risks - to look back now because those risks didn’t materialise (mostly due to the Greenspan Put post 9-11) isn’t exactly a fair comparison with looking at it at the time. In 2001, the Celtic Tiger was coming to an end - I know, I was made redundant by a great little Irish software company that was bought out by a major global player in their area and basically whittled down to nothing. The Celtic Tiger was primarily an IT/Technology boom - and while it looked bleak after the dotcom bubble burst, 9-11 was a total kick in the nads. Against the backdrop of a truly productive economy slipping downhill, I don’t think too many people could have foreseen a bubble in construction taking over for the next 6 years.

Fast forward to 2007 and you’re making the mistake of not compensating yourself for the inherent risk in your investment. If you bought for 200k in 2001, fair play to you - your market has rolled a fair few sixes since then, you should at least acknowledge that. Indeed, if you’d sold in 2006 you’d be €50k richer than you are today - the D9 3-bed semi market is one I’m personally interested in, so I’ve been watching it very closely this last year. Even accounting for transaction costs, you’d have been better off selling in early 2006 and buying again now than holding on to the house for the last year. With the way things are at the moment, if circumstances forced you to sell up in a rush tomorrow, you might need to take a €100k+ haircut on it. Thats the risk with illiquid assets, and thats why your asset should yield more than a simple deposit account.

Now don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have bought a €200k house in D9 in 2001… with the benefit of hindsight. But as things stand, I need to play the cards in front of me now, not what I had back then. We sold up in Meath early this year to move back into the D9 area as it happens, but as I see it, the house I buy today will be cheaper next year. Since renting is currently a suitable option for us, then renting it is.

Meanwhile our “equity” is tucked away in several deposit accounts, earning interest and appreciating in value versus the depreciating asset class it will eventually be spent on.

Again, a post of the day there from Conor…

LUCID! :wink:

ahhhh refreshingly honest.
thank you.

your cash in appreciating? how is that done? - i understand you will be earning interest - but you said interest AND appreciating.
can you clarify please?

In 2001 I was still in college, students don’t get mortgages.

But maybe I just wasn’t savvy?

It’s appreciating in value vis a vis the intended eventual purchase, or more correctly, it’s appreciating *in purchasing power *vis a vis the price of a house.

I’m not worried about general inflation and the real value of my cash inflating away. It will be spent on a single purchase - a house - so in that respect it’s more like a deflationary scenario where the purchasing power of your capital increases over time, rather than decreases.

The interest earned on the capital is a separate issue, and as things stand in the property market, of significantly less importance.

There is also a third point of value (just to confuse the issue!) and that is mortgage interest. If you can buy a house today for €50k less than last year, you’re not only saving yourself the €50k but also the interest you would have to pay on that €50k over the course of the mortgage.

If the only option on offer is “Use the money to buy the house” or loose it. With hindsight, then you I would.

That said, in 2001 I was not putting any of my money anywhere near bricks.

Blue Horseshoe

Hindsight is great. If you’re asking would someone do something if they knew what was coming over the next 6 to 7 years then that’s entirely different than asking if they regret not doing something based on facts available in the real world.

If we’re allowed take the benefit of hindsight back with us to 2001 then I still wouldn’t buy property in Ireland, I’d take 6 years worth of stock charts and put on a streak of “luck” that would have me on the cover of Forbes. Do you really think a semi-D in Dublin is the most lucrative use of absolute certainty about the future. Why are you so wealth averse?

No difference in lifestyle for you , you would just have had an
appreciating assset ( for 5 years ) which is earning you income in the
background.

Yes, Rental properties just look after themselves. Every tenant is a dream, and owning a buy to let has no impact on the lifestyle of the owner at all. My ability to work in different parts of Ireland and spend 2 years in the States wouldn’t have been impacted at all!!!

Perhaps I should have signed over 12% of the turnover to a management company on top of everything else???

Surely its better to have such an asset than not?

I remember about 1 year ago or less you were on here telling us all how the market was sound, property was still a great asset etc. etc.

If you had a time machine would you a) sell your own properties earlier, and/or b) not come across as so naive on a public forum.

Maybe i am missing something , most of the contributors here seem to > be wealth-averse… im just trying to figure out why.

I find the ones that are reality-averse more difficult to understand.

Let me explain this to you one more time. Since the market corrected slightly in 2001 it has raced ahead at a rate that was and is completely unsupported by fundamentals.

Very very few people who bought property since 2001 did it on the basis of sound funadamentals.

I’ll admit I’ve questioned my own sanity once or twice since 2001 as prices kept climbing, but I was convinced that the prices made no sense and something else was driving it. Something I wasn’t willing to risk money on.

Recent events shed some light on the real fuel for the house prices. Banks lending crazy money, assuming rent a rooms as a default. People mortgaging properties with multiple lenders and buying 50 or a 100 other properties with the proceeds.

Do I regret trusting my instinct and staying out of this. No, No No.
Don’t worry about my wealth. I’m happy. And unlike many people who might have followed “expert” advice over the last year or two, I actually have a positive net worth.

-Rd

with hindsight , there are people here who still say “i dont regret not buying” - do you agree with the benefit of hindsight it would have been a good financial move to do so - no the BEST move by any means - but a good one.

hindsight of the property market - not hindsight in all things , otherwise its euormillions + lotto every week for me:)
d9 is prob not the best bet in the property market either. its just to highlight the fact theat there are people here who refuse to accept that having a gaff today at 2001 prices is a GOOD thing - thats in my opinion obviously.

see above - im not wealth averse.

well 12% is a bit high , i have heard one month pa, which is 8% and even that sounds high to me. if you get a decent location … and a reasonable rent the place will look after itself. very very little hassle … that comes from both sides of the fence for me , renting gaffs and letting them out.
if you are not ripping people off they general do the same to you.

really? can you provide a quote from me saying that?
or are you going to pull a SW and tell me its up to ME to look back through my posts? :laughing:

well maybe not , moving in and out of property can be costly. if i sold a place and a year or 3 later wanted to invest again , i would be hit for stamp duty which can be 10s of thousands. as i have said i am in this for the long haul and at least one of these gaffs will be my pension… hopefully more but at least one will …

how so?

what does that matter if you are quids in?
why would you care?

again , why would you care what other people are doing?

thats your pride speaking , you dont want to admit you missed out.
thats understandable - if it makes you feel any better - i regret not buying MORE and BIGGER gaffs in 2001.

im not worrying about your wealth one way or the other . im just confused as why one would rather have LESS money than more money - but im glad your happy.

oh yes buying a couple of years ago wouldnt really appeal to me. 2004/05 was doable tho - with hindesight of course :slight_smile:

no the options are

  1. buy a house
  2. dont buy a house

scenario 1 leaves you a couple 100k up - along with rental income for 6 years etc etc etc
some people will try and argue they would not like to be in this situation.
this is a v strange thought process which i am trying to get a handle on.

and unless you outpreformed the irish property market in that time then you must surely concede it would have been BETTER for you to invest in bricks.

Ye 2 gaffs, your’re right what about all those stoopid 11 year olds in 2001, now they are 18 I’m sure they would love to have this magic time machine and go back cause they can’t afford a fecking house now if they wanted one.

Stupid morons for being born at the wrong time in the wrong place.

Well, to humour you, I’ll say yes. Although a real time traveller would have far quicker and more lucrative ways to get rich quick.

Anyway, your point, if I read it correctly is that property bears have been reliably predicting a bust every year since 1997, and they’ve been wrong until today.

Warren Buffett “lost” several billion because he pulled out of the NASDAQ 3 years before the rest of the world did. Had he held on to the doomed Ebay, Cisco and Yahoo shares he would have been “quids in” until 2000, at which point he’d become as broke as everyone else did.

Therefore Warren Buffett *isn’t * the best investor in the world’s history?

Wrong, he is.

He knows a bubble when he sees one, and avoids them. He knows that controlling your greed and ignoring the paper profits others are seemingly making is the key to success in this game.

By the way, I’d buy the house, because the banks’d give me the mortgage for it.

Then I’d sell it immediately, get a €50,000 lease somewhere, and buy €150,000 worth of gold.

Unlike with the houses, the value of my holdings’d still be rising as we speak.

hey 2gaffs, i’m sure everyone on here is glad that you own two “gaffs” and that your shrewd decisions have born fruit. but can you just tone down the nonchalence a bit? your spats are becoming becoming quite tedious and are hard on the eye for those of us trying to follow the topic. can you just set up a “2gaffs is always right” thread or something?