Timing of a Stock Market (S&P) Crash

Timing of a Stock Market (S&P) Crash

  • No crash, will be stagnant for years
  • No crash, will track positive for years
  • No crash, will track negative for years
  • Crash in Q1/Q2, 2010
  • Crash in Q3/Q4, 2010
  • Crash in 2011
  • Crash in 2012
  • Crash in 2013
  • Crash after 2013

0 voters

I need to place a bet on the poll subject, so looking for the combined knowledge of the pin to give me direction, not that I follow it too much anyway.

My own thought is 2012.

i dont think u will ahve a crash as such because with all the $$$ being printed and the markets being manipulated the Fedd/Goldman Sachs wont allow it to happen but then again u dont know what they have planned…

I think the DOW may stagnate or rise slowly, but fall in real term.

Not gonna happen. Be more interesting to see if Nasdaq comes good again.

Why on earth would we have another crash when we’ve just had one of the biggest crashes since the Great Depression and are finally coming through what was nearly a financial collapse?

Remember, that the S&P peaked in 2007 at 1557 before reaching a bottom of 666 last year. Also remember that the financial markets are exactly where they were this time 10 years ago. If history tells us anything, it’s that when you’ve had a lousy decade of stock market performance, the next decade is *likely *to produce better returns.

My own thoughts are that it’s not only foolish to try and predict the general stock market in a one year period; it’s down-right stupid to even try. People who know much more than you and I completely missed the crash in 2008 and then the subsequent rally in 2009.

On the OP, I’ve got no idea.

You dont seriously believe that this is ‘over’, do you?
We’ll be dealing with the fallout from this for the next decade, unless we get a big crash and the indices stay down until the real world catches up.
Indeed, you could argue that all this has its genesis in the DotCom era which would lead back to 1996 or so.

Even your run-of-the-mill stock market crash (89-90) dragged on until the mid-nineties.

The UK FTSE 100 is still below its level of 2 years ago and thats with 200Bn pumped into the economy!

What do you imagine will happen when these supports are removed and the money has to be paid back?

See, I disagree here; I think that a lot of these people dont actually have a clue what they’re doing or how markets work any more than you or I do.

EDIT - Timely post linked from FT Alphaville this am - voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

EDIT 2 - Serendipity this morning. Another FT link leads to

creditwritedowns.com/2010/03 … risis.html?

No way is this over.
Just… no way.

Depends, did they ever manage to bring in regulations against short selling? Might not happen if no-one can profit from it.

I’m with Needle on this one. Even with the stimulus packages in full flow at the moment the US is still losing jobs. The markets are rallying on the back of the large growth predictions, they had initially rose on better profit and loss figures from huge job losses and the resulting efficiencies. At the moment they are still pumping dollars in but what happens when inflation rears its head and they pull back. There is some quote that if you make a prediction either but down a figure or a date but not both. I’ll ignore these wise words and say Q3 2011, Dow at 8500. As for a crash in the C&B terms of a crash where the markets losses 70% of their value, I can’t see the end of the world just yet. For me all signs point to a stronger $ in the future even with the printing presses running.

There will be no crash. Equities will begin to outperform cash or bonds and this situation will last for many years. The simple reason is that governments will pursue mildly inflationary policies for the foreseeable future.

The best hedge against inflation is to own the cashflows from a viable enterprise. If you don’t own one, being long equities is your best proxy.

Broadly regulators are looking to force short-sellers to disclose positions over a certain size but most seem to have pulled back from outright bans. Naked shorting is pretty much verboten everywhere (and a good thing too) so you need borrow in place. I think that Ireland is one of the only developed countries that still has an outright ban in place on financials.

You’re asking a gaggle of strangers to specify a black swan event? Wouldn’t you be better off reading tea leaves? At least that way you get a nice cup of tea.

Speculation in financial markets is driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals. This is why worthless internet stock was valued at billions in 1999 and profitable, well-run businesses were valued as being worthless in March 2009. Because the financial crisis of 2007-2009 was something that had never been encountered in investors lifetimes, people became irrational and dumped good companies at silly prices. The point I’m trying to make is that investors hate uncertainty and the unknown. It’s like when 9/11 happened, we saw widespread panic in financial market. However, if the same incident was repeated today, you would not have nearly as much panic.

I stand by my only stock market prediction, which historical data will back up. If you have a decade of poor stock market performance, the following decade is likely to show good performance.

I think you might be right, predicting a crash is impossible I know. Last year when the Dow was at 7,500 I placed a bet with a friend (small fry) that it would hit 6,500 before it would hit 8,500, he won, I lost, I got caught out by the speed of the recovery of the market but as was pointed out above allot of people wer ecaught in being overly-negative.
I have to say though, I am with Needle too, I just don’t see how this could all be over yet, there are too many unsettled accounts out there and way too many worthless pieces of paper for the system to ignore.

This is the reason I feel there will be a crash at some point

i.e. never-ending Budget Defecits and Stimulus spending

market-ticker.denninger.net/arch … Again.html

Think what you will of Denninger, the numbers are scary.