Todays Sunday TImes

Any one seen Todays Sunday TImes Main headline says the Property Boom is over. They apparenlty did a survey with Daft .3% drop in Dublin 10% in Galway. Havent seen it yet as am at a match but listening to the radio its one of the major stories

I was very surprised at the galway finding as I see houses still selling here and there seems to be still a shortage in galway (houses to let anyway). I thought galway might have been a bit more insulated than most

It’s safe to say we can all throw out our assumptions about what areas will escape price drops, the facts starting to roll in show that all areas will drop, some at a greater rate than others. At the moment the banks seem to be desperate to chase down the potential borrowers that remain in the market. The major crisis will start when the banks panic and tighten credit lending standards.

IMHO, this is what is happening worldwide as the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc carry trades continue to unwind, coupled with the losses mounting in the US housing market and spreading throughout the global financial system, its only a matter of months (less than 12) before the credit crunch begins to bite here.

From today’s Sunday Times (Front Page)

It seems the most expensive markets have started to fold first with prices falling in all areas of Dublin for instance. Bizarrely prices continued to rise in Donegal by 4.1% in the survey period. But the Galway City market down 10% in four months which the Sunday Times describes as a collapse
On an annualised basis we are talking about the possibility of a 30% drop in Galway in one year.
:open_mouth:

Ha, “Galway Tents” become “Galway Tanks”

Absolutely - some people feel that certain areas will not be affected but I don’t see any area as safe. Dublin prices have been affected by speculation and overlending on the way up and will be dragged down like everywhere else, maybe to a slightly lesser extent.

2Pack on GHPC announced his 2Pack 2Band theory last summer on the askaboutmoney sentiment thread (before they banned him) and I think this is how it will pan out. Ultimately the outer-outer commuter towns will worst hit but posh city suburbs will take a hard knock also.

In fact I had a read through the postings on “that thread” from last summer and it’s eerie how the market is now going the way of many predictions. Anyone who was thinking about getting deep into property borrowing but held off because they were educated by the thread are probably becoming more delighted with their decision as every day passes! It’s interesting how a group of internet forum posters did what the media couldn’t/wouldn’t do. The first signs of the market going soft arrived in the House Market Weakening thread which was started at the end of May last year. After CCOVICH shut it down, Miju started the sentiment thread sprung the next day :slight_smile:

Yup, it all started last May (this internet bear phenomenon that is). I remember starting a thread asking people were they bullish or bearish about the property market over on boards.ie back in July (my boards username is Cantab.). Miju (on advice of Sleipnir) then refined this poll giving people a four-way choice:

“I own property and am bearish”
“I own property and am bullish”
“I do not own property and am bearish”
“I do not own property and am bullish”

I must admit, that I bumped up the bearishness at the time!!! I have a domain and wrote a perl script that created ghost email addresses, subscribed to boards.ie and voted “bear” on the poll… It was sad, but interesting (I was “supposedly” working in a multi-national company at the time). :laughing:

The results of this poll ultimately led to the infamous “Current public sentiment towards the housing market” thread, started by Miju on AAM and resumed on TTP. This whole saga is reminds me of chaos theory’s butterfly effect.

you wrote:

I must admit, that I bumped up the bearishness at the time!!! I have a domain and wrote a perl script that created ghost email addresses, subscribed to boards.ie and voted “bear” on the poll… It was sad, but interesting (I was “supposedly” working in a multi-national company at the time). :laughing:


fcek the begrudgers like you

One of the first big threads on boards.ie started in February 2006

The housing bubble has burst
boards.ie/vbulletin/showthre … 2054889213

I did a search on boards.ie and its 2005 before the subject of the housing bubble starts to raise its head, initially its dismissed, but it begins to gain momentum in 2006. An interesting observation is that those with a bullish opinion on property have disappeared to the sidelines and no longer contribute.

**Property bubble: NYT article on Japan’s experience **
Dec 2005
boards.ie/vbulletin/showthre … 2054866932

Florida newspaper article on US housing bubble burst
Nov 2005
boards.ie/vbulletin/showthre … 2054849672

House Prices
Oct 2005
boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=317467

The global housing boom (article, The Economist, subscription only)
August 2005
boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=291468

Will the bubble burst?
July 2005
boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=278764

Overpriced Property
May 2005
boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=253330

That would be Mr & Mrs Coinfused :smiley: I certainly owe 2pac a pint. The house we were bidding on was eventually sold for 50k more than amv- this was a house priced at 360k Same estate has 2 house on market since August, 1 was withdrawn (family couldn’t afford to risk bridging luckily)the other has seen its amv drop by 12k and still hasn’t sold. Mr C has only recently been converted and had to be talked down from bidding more than we could afford with 2pacs 2 band theory. the thought of being in hock to my inlaws (shudder) was almost as powerful an argument as 2pacs for me :blush:

Thanks for dredging this up, I didn’t realize boards kept threads in their archive for so long. I thought I might be embarrassed at what I wrote back then, but what seemed like far out on a limb in the bearish direction at the time is painfully obvious now:

It looks like MorningStar owes me at least one pint on his claim that interest rates wouldn’t rise more that 0.5%. Ireland’s real estate market is too opaque to get solid answers on prices and time-on-market figures, but if such figures were available, I’d stay with the bet I made in September 2005. Where is MorningStar though? I miss him and to be honest, I kind of worry about the little specuvestor. Where are you MorningStar? We could use some property bulls here to tell us that we’re all wrong.

dochasach< Nice one - my guess is that whilst ‘MorningStar’ was clearly all over the place on interest rate forecasts, he would probably still be so much in denial, that he would be in the ‘it’s only a temporary blip - caused by the Mexican style stand-off on stamp duty’ camp. Some people either refuse to listen to sound advice and look at real statistics/evidence or perhaps they genuinely do not possess the acumen to understand even the very fundamentals of economics.

The Sunday Times/Daft.ie survey was based on three bedroom houses across the country. I wonder what the figures would have been be like if the survey was based on 1-2 bedroom apartment prices?

MorningStar = headwreaker

most annoying person I’ve ever tried ot have a house price discussion with.

Would someone be able to let us in on that theory? Wasn’t following all this back then and can’t find it now.

Cheers

here is a link for 2packs theory

forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/ … opic=16852

Hang On
If we’re patting ourselves on the back I wrote the following in Jan 05 …

In Ireland in particular, I think that the artificially low interest rates have fanned the property boom engendering a “can’t lose mentality”.This has not only pushed up prices but encouraged overbuilding and the building of inappropriate shoddy properties in poor locations sold to marginal buyers. Whether this view is correct remains to be seen when interest rates normalise.
Regards
in this thread on AAM
82.195.144.147/showthread.php?t=8106

2Pack was one of the most informative and entertaining posters on the askaboutmoney sentiment thread. If there was such a thing as “Bear Awards”, he’d get my vote for Best Bear 2006 - and of course he gets extra votes for being the first regular poster on that thread to get an AAM banning :smiley:

Of course Duplex, BearishBull, Walk2DeWater, Room305, Redo, Remix etc all helped educate the masses. And thankfully the good work continues on the Pin & GHPC.

Well said :wink: Speaking of 2Pack, does he post over here?

I think he is mostly over in GHPC now, spreading the good word!