Tom Parlon on Morning Ireland 23/02

Did anyone hear it? I believe it was comedy gold

rte.ie/news/morningireland/

rte.ie/news/morningireland/p … 8,real,209
There’s a link to the segment ‘house price index scrapped’

He mentioned something about publishing ‘real time’ accurate sales prices (keep talking tom…) observing that it would be terrible for people to miss the bottom by 6 months (ahhh you blew it)

1/2 listening…kids to get out the door at that time of the morning

The mans a joke, an embarassment he should be sent back to the shithole he came outta.

Loved the bit about buyers missing the bottom by six months, as if prices are suddenly going to rocket out of their range!
Gotta get on that ladder, folks!!

Bottom Bottom Bottom and Bottom , 4 times he mentions the word.

Country Tom also insinuated there were ‘only’ 100k empty houses :smiley:

He was not as funny as usual…he actually raised good points for a change.

But Aine Lawlor got him with ‘you weren’t worried about a price list when the cash was rolling in’ (to paraphrase)

I think we all agree that prices should be published though

He did raise good points and God knows the database would hasten the correction so for once I think Tom and ourselves have common purpose. Aine Lawlor unfortunately only made half the connection though when she said no one was looking for this when the tax receipts were rolling in. I would have been happier if she had pointed out that the builders enjoyed naming their price when there was no index as this helped the fear that caused the problems we now face.

And Yes, Tom loves his bottoms. Podge and Rodge aren’t the only people who enjoy “picken their holes”.

I had a long discourse with RonanL on the outcome of such a statistical project last year. Only the Revenue has the hard data, not that seemingly senile Finneran we saw on the frontline. Only the Revenue can release it…possibly via the CSO.

The Revenue will only release it if they are confident that it will result in MORE Revenue as a consequence of releasing it. I would do a much better job of convincing them than Country Tom ever would and Country Tom is welcome to PM me any time and arrange to avail of my consultancy services :smiley:

And you are correct FB2. The only way to spot a bottom is where there is some confidence in the accuracy of the pricing mechanism and as there is none, absent accurate and timely data, the bottom stretches out a bottoming before us into near infinity.

Country Tom is a very recent convert to the good cause and I for one welcome his conversion. Obviously he spent much of the past 6 weeks in contemplation and hopefully he caught up with the PIN Zeitgeist during that time.

Tom only ever tries to sound reasonable in whatever context he finds himself in. He’s a dangerous man.

This is the fucker who paid 200k per acre of our money for three fields in North Dublin

TRAITOR

Imagine what the Irish real estate market would be like with this kind of tool:

longisland.blockshopper.com/citi … _northport

That’s where I grew up. Drill down on any property to find previous sales, local taxes, who the neighbours are, who represents that district in Congress and the state legislature, etc.

Spent a decade in Stony Brook–north shore is nice. Sold a house in the states last year. Our buyer knew exactly when we had bought it and for how much. The opacity in Ireland is justified on privacy grounds? Laughable.

He sounded fairly confident that an index of actual sale prices would happen this year.

I’m not 100% sure what angle he’s shooting here since it is very likely any such index would hasten the crash even more. Maybe Tom has seen the light and just wants construction activity to return even if it is at a greatly reduced level wrt prices?

It was a condition of NAMA was it not?

CSO said one year ago, they were going to produce it in 2 years time, although I think that was an anecdotal remark someone got…

Of course, an index is something you can control…

Will the underlying dataset be made public? I doubt it and, as you say, we will just get an index.

Probably with near zero granularity (Dublin/Outside Dublin/LionsTigersBear/HereBeDragons).

Probably with near zero differentiation (apartment/house/3-bed semi).

It will be as near to useless as they can make it while still publishing something!

If its not in place Tom and his crew cant manipulate it or dictate what goes into it or how its viewed so of course its in his interest.

If it is opaque the CSO will not touch it, we are not Greece with its pure form of ‘official’ stats thank God :frowning:

Do they plan to show historical stats or just the sales prices from the launch date onwards?
I get the feeling that any sort of data being made available gives a opportunity for the VIs to spin about a recovery.

There’s a better chance that the buddha himself will post on the pin before historical data are available.

Mr Slipstream is an LI boy - when I start to get sick of of house shopping and waiting, I check out the Newsday property listings and observe what I could buy over there for the same money as I have to spend here. Always puts a stop to my worrying.

Also - what I love about the local market over there is that houses in need of lots of work are significantly cheaper than the ones that aren’t. They actually reflect the cost of refurbishment. Here, you get a measly 50k off and you’re supposed to be grateful. The outlaws cannot believe the way our market operates.

This was especially entertaining back in 2006-2007, when my crappy 750 sq ft bungalow Greystones was ‘worth’ close to $1m at the prevailing exchange rate. That was obviously my big chance to buy a 5-bed beachfront house!

Still, LI property taxes are very high and commuting is absolutely brutal if you work in the city.