trends-in-the-irish-property-market-with-ronan-lyons

irishdebate.com/2010/10/07/trend … nan-lyons/

sorry maybe i should have put this in bubble tv radio…?

only watching it now so not sure if worth its own thread for discussion.

Follow up on the DAFT report - posted here:

viewtopic.php?p=434674#p434674

Good viewing, few thoughts:

Whole ‘over supply’ arguement whilst valid ignores the many issues on the demand side (its shifting inward!)

He seems to use 2007 as benchmark (e.g. for figuring oversupply out) - was pretty much whole market in 2007 not just speculative thus using it as a sort of benckmark (index-100) imparts an upward bias in any ‘fundamental’ type figures derived

How easy is it for EA’s to game the daft ‘Sale Agreed’ markers - id be marking every single thing a take off as “sale agreed” - whats to stop users gaming this stat as it becomes more important in the analysis? (could probably figure out if this happening by looking at sale records of individual users i.e. someone with 100% sale agreed is obviously gaming it)

Re 80% of lettings saying “no rental allowance” - in some cases probably just a signalling tool or screening device - does not mean landlord wont take rental allowance if you know what i mean

Part 3 looks at yield’s:

Another potential asking price vs final price issue - wonder if much of difference between what lettings are looking for and what they are agreeing e.g ask 900 settle for 800 - 850 type issue (maybe not as much of an issue as with sales prices but …)

all the same i would place stock in trends of rents on daft as decent indicator

Very interesting, thanks OP, have bookmarked that website.
I found the last part about LTEV particularly interesting.

Nice one Ronan. Perfect level of explanation for the interested amateur.

I was excited by the presentation because it confirmed something I’ve been thinking for ages: It is no longer necessary to be bearish on Dublin rents if you are bearish on Dublin house prices. Those rents could stop falling today and all that would reveal is that sales prices are still c.25% - 30% too high.

That level of fall would also start making sense for median Dublin salaries and lending multiples (4x €50k or 3x €50k + 1.5x €30k or whatever). Moreover, if you charted those falls onto Ronan’s historical graph, it would look perfectly natural. That’s like a perfect storm of “coincidences” (yield, income levels, historical trend) all pointing to exactly the same level of falls.

Very good presentation.
Recommended viewing for everyone.

Hi guys,
Thanks for all the kind comments! And do tune in on Wednesday 20th for the next discussion, if you’re interest - it’s on what can/should be done on tax reform.

R