UCD Conference - "Responding to the Crisis"


#26

This is a little less scary that An tUsail’s reported figure of 20% across the board - it fits into a study the BoE have done (which draws heavily on work the Fed did following the S&Ls problems):
C&D - 20% loss
Commercial - 12%
Business and personal debt - 8%
Residential - 5% (or is it 3%?)

I think these are the figures anyway. When I last looked at the bank books (of all the banks) these figures gave a total loss of near 50 bn. There are some important caveats, though:

  • interest roll-ups - what proportion of loans is interest? - this proportion will be near 100% loss
  • overbuilding of commercial and retail space - we have enough retail space for a population three times our size and really quite a lot of commercial office space
  • second (or something) highest personal indebtedness in the world could lead to higher personal and car loan defaults
  • residential mortgages are concentrated - a large part of the population has little or no mortgage debt, with another part having huge debt. Often, it appears, from looking at the Money Makeover thread on AAM, these are the same people with huge unsecured debt. So while the average LTV doesn’t look too bad, the concentration is very worrying.

#27

+1

Great post. Much appreciated.


#28

Ditto. Thanks for an excellent summary of the Conference.

Did any of our political masters take time out to attend this conference I wonder :angry:

I think this line will define our next 10 years:

Ireland Inc, led by Buffoons & mortgaged by Chancers !


#29

You can get some of the slides for the conference here:
irisheconomy.ie/

I can’t see Morgan’s yet though.


#30

See fucker fuckers fucking peoples mindheads. Can’t let people know the people knew a long time ago when the IT was still emblazoned with shilling spin and spoofery from the fuck fuck fuckers.

Amateurs… who don’t pay 50 zillion for a failing website :angry: (sub head line: “Internet inhabited by sub professionals shock”)


#31


#32

It shows some prescience and civicmindedness on the part of UCD (or the Department of Economics at any rate) that such a free conference was held at this point in time. It has certainly moved the news agenda today, right from Morning Ireland onwards. In doing this, they have cleaved to the proper function of a university, but one that is oft-forgotten in this era of modularity and education-as-business. Newman would be puzzled by the terms under discussion, but he would surely appreciate the impulse.

Also, it is telling that the 'Pin is once again a driver of debate and a repository of knowledge. I - morbidly, snobbishly - fear for the day when the 'Pin becomes too popular or too diffuse and collapses under the weight of mediocrity and mere information. Then, instead of intelligent posts that eddy out from the centre of a debate such as this, and elucidate topics of which I know little, we may find ourselves in an overmoderated morass where every jackass with an anecdote will try to trump the braying of the jackass before him.

Not very Newman of me to feel this way, but it is a genuinely-held apprehension. Apologies if this is offtopic naysaying.


#33

No more Lolcats?


#34

Nah, we need lolcats. Them and pandas. Just no jackasses.


#35

Re the thanks for my synopsis of yesterday’s conference - I’m glad to be of service to the worthy readers of the pin. I have been reading here for a long time myself - so am glad to make a small contribution.

A common thread running through yesterdays papers at the conference was the pressing need for
hard and accurate data on the housing market and the bank loan book structures etc.
This was a comment made by almost all the contributors. I think this issue is finally gaining the attention it deserves.
Some commentators said that it isn’t actually possible to analyse large sections of the Irish housing market at all - due to the lack of data.

Btw - I just heard Joan Burton on the Last Word commenting (positively) about the hard-to-understand technical points and sophisticated analyses
put forward by the speakers relating to the economy and suggested courses of action.

This is rather disappointing to hear.
The level of debate and information presented was not that challenging or demanding.
Pin conversations are regularly more technical and detailed than any paper presented yesterday.
I felt Joan Burton had performed well lately, but it makes me uneasy that the Labour party spokesperson on finance found this material challenging.

For my money, the most remarkable point of the occasion was the near unanimity of opinion being expressed and not the content thereof.

Finally, Garret Fitzgerald was there for some of the second session, listening intently and apparently enjoying the show.
I doubt very much if any of the content was challenging to him. Pity he isn’t about 30 years younger.


#36

Hey, with only 10 posts your playing a blinder !

She may have just have been being smart & trying to avoid having voters feel stupid, for not getting a lot of the theories & proposals flying around. Better to have them start trusting someone to act in their best interest. Of course, in an ideal world the voters would know enough to not get themselves into this shit in the first place.

Oh man, I wish he was still in the picture. I’m disappointed that he seems to not be involved in any way shape or form in FG any more. But then again, he put in his time & its up to those who think they’re fit to take his place to prove it to the voters !


#37

UB economist during the final Q&A asked Morgan to back up his prediction that Anglo and Irish Nationwide could lose 30bn between them :open_mouth: , seeing as banks had just been audited. Morgan said he did not have access to the banks figures, but that he had been right to-date. (he noted his first two bank predictions turned out to be accurate).
He went on to comment that he had no faith in the audit as commented on above.

Other tidbits from Morgan…

Job loses in the IFSC will make Dell job loses look like a ‘birthday party’.

15% job loses easily by the end of 2009, without the economic and social safety value of emigration during the 80’s

The banking fiasco is like a W.C. Fields movie.


#38

Or penguins.


#39

That’s kinda my fear as well, there are way too many jobs in Ireland that comprise a desk, a phone, & a warm body.

Things like the IFSC, Insurance/Banking/Credit card call centers are just about the most mobile class of jobs & it terrifies me to think how many could shift in 6 months :frowning:


#40

great work An tUsail

is there any chance that conference will be broadcast, on rte ? youtube? or something. A lot of people would wake up from their slumber if they could see kelly talking like that. Why one of the opposition parties hasnt tried to sign Kelly up the way Ron paul had schiff is beyond me. Can u imagine the likes of kelly/ahearne having a decisive input in the Dept of Finance?

& where were Desperate Dan and Comical Austin?


#41

Below is a link to Stephen Kinsella’s blog and has notes about the UCD conference enjoy…

stephenkinsella.net/2009/01/ … #more-1998


#42

It was pretty thick of IFRS to make provisioning and squirraling away pots of cash for a rainy day more difficult in the middle of the decade. Especially given the experience of the Japanese banks that was there for all to see.

BOI and AIB bad debts may have been low up to now, but they’ll probably charge every bit of garbage they can find under the sun before they release the full year accounts - AIB in Feb, BOI in May. Rarely has there been a better time to come up with bad news.


#43

I concur.

Kinsella is a progressive guy, I like that he is suggested simple potential solutions on the job front like setting up enterprise camps outside the major dole offices. Really, what is there to lose by doing this?

cnbc.com/id/28650522

Didn’t the Soc Gen guy say 40Billion?

From my time on the Pin, I don’t think I learned an awful lot at this conference. What I did pick was the lack of any positivity.
Kelly was certainly impressive in his delivery.

I didn’t record it (had no means to do so). Tv cameras were only there for the first half, gone by 4 ish (to make the news I suppose). I noticed a lot of people (around 30/40) leaving before Kelly spoke. Presumably to get there buses/trains home. What was the point in attending the shagging conference if you’re going to leave before the best bits? Also, why the fuck can’t people put there phones on silent, are they that important?

Was flicking between Cooper and Keatley yesterday while they were talking about the conference. Keatley had Joe Higgins on shiting on about a room of 200 right wing economists. Was surprised to hear Burton saying the conference was difficult to follow, but glad to see that we had one politician in attendance (at least that I recognised).


#44

Indeed. And a T-bill is (in USD terms anyway) a treasury of six months or shorter duration. So how this relates to risk aversion for longer-dated euro zone debt, except by way of confirming it, is beyond me.


#45

Found this:
aaj.tv/news/Business/126211_detail.html
42 bn for the year
Mix of durations. The first 2 bn is indeed t-bills (less then six months).