UK General Election 12 Dec 19 - Bonking Boris etc


#41

It is intriguing really. Blair’s huge vote was because he kept the traditional legacy union vote, when people were still in unions, he got the soft Tory vote and he didn’t have to deal with a vibrant SNP.

Blair fed the SNP by giving devolution. It has ended up costing labour 40 - 50 banker seats over the long term. Michael Foot kept all those seats.

Globalisation, which Blair cheerled, has contributed to destruction of trade unions.

Migration which blairites and employers and globalists supported hugely contributed to the rise of UKIP/Brexit party.

I can see how being pro Palestinian and Irish human rights, sharing platforms with their activists has hurt Corbyn. But really a lot of this mess is Blair’s legacy.


#42

Couldn’t agree more blame game. It’s almost as if Blair was a “fake”. But the ruling class would never stoop to such a thing.


#43

Nigel Dodds has lost North Belfast to Sinn Fein. DUP may also lose South Belfast to SDLP.


#44

Corbyn takes Islington and announces he won’t be leading Labour into any future election. (Judging by the number of Labour MP’s blaming him for their predicament he’ll be lucky to be leading them beyond breakfast time tomorrow).


#45

Jo Swinson has lost her seat to the SNP !


#46

George Osborne was mocking the loses of DUP, and was talking of an Irish confederation, so if Northern Ireland remains in the EU with a border down the Irish Sea, is that not what we have. with the suckers in the UK still paying for NI

An Irish confederation was an interesting phrase, I wonder did he dream it up himself


#47

Well that late momentum never happened!
A lot of people citing the distrust of Corbyn as being a huge factor – his previous associations with the IRA for example. However this was all known in 2017 and Labour did ok then. I’ll be brazen and suggest the anti-Semitism problems in Labour are not a huge vote loser. If people feel angst about minority groups being rounded on, they’re hardly going to gravitate to the Tory party.

At the end of the day he just appears to be too weak at a time where strength is needed.

Brexit fatigue and Boris’s promise to get it done seems key. The stomach for Labour’s drawn out path to another referendum isn’t there. Even remainers probably just want to get on with it.

If you wanted to negotiate a deal with Brussels you’d probably prefer to send a gang of shifty, untrustworthy, conmen in the mould of Raab, Gove, Cummings, Mogg and Boris. As opposed to earnest sandal wearing, muesli eating Corbyn acolytes.

Labour should be happy to rid of Corbyn at least. They can pick a middle ground moderate or else throw a strop and choose a Corbyn 2.0 candidate. Bar the Blair-Brown years, theirs has been a losing brand for nearly half a century though.


#48

I would pretty much agree with this analysis. But from our own point of view we are entering some very choppy waters with a radical government in the UK who basically don’t seem to care much for minority views of any sort, whether about remain voters, Scottish nationalists or indeed NI unionists or nationalists.

If the UK sets out its stall in trade talks to be a trade rival of the EU then the gloves could really come off in trade talks and EU-UK relations could get quite ugly. We will have the spectre of a no deal exit hanging over us again in late 2020 and with unpredictable arrangements for trade and tariffs to follow on from this. Plus perhaps agitation for border polls in NI and Scotland adding to the mix. I’m not a happy camper with this outcome.


#49

Exit poll was reasonably accurate. Tories will take about four seats less than projected. However, SNP took seven seats less than projected, so Labour about a dozen seats less badly off. And Nessie is less badly off as Ruth Davidson doesn’t have to go swimming naked with the SNP on only 48.


#50

Yeah, its 48 seats after securing 45% of the vote - 8.1% more than in the last general election in 2017, when it won 35 seats.
In 2015, they got 50% of the votes and 56 seats.
Basically, they have a base for IndyRef2.


#51

Turnout ended up being down 2%. So lots of fake news going around yesterday about high turnout to get the tories out.

Sinn Fein share of the vote dropped 7%. SDLP with a 17,000 majority in Foyle, which was 169…for SF in 2017. Even John Hume didn’t get a majority of 17,000 in Foyle.

So the inevitable slip away from SF continues, and the same should happen in the ROI election in 2020.


#52

There was a lot of unusual tactical voting going on in NI yesterday, along with annoyance over Brexit and the ongoing hibernation of the NI Assembly, so overall percentages going to parties in this election are somewhat meaningless methinks. Assembly elections are probably a better indicator of where the electorate are at.


#53

The percentages are unreliable, but the trend holds up.

Sinn Fein listened for years to media talking heads telling them to ditch the old guard - they followed this guidance and it’s been downhill since. So dumb.

They’re the only party North or South to let abortion cause a split. That’s hurt them too. I doubt any of the 1916 signatories would be pro abortion.

They’re also totally doctrinaire when it comes to migration and globalisation.


#54

Sdlp gain in South Belfast plus Foyle
Delighted

id agree with this to a point. All parties stood aside in some areas. Good day fo the the alliance overall and a small hope that people will eventually get away from tribal head counting


#55

That’s precisely and completely wrong. People are not “turning away from tribal head counting” - they’re voting Alliance to protect their “tribe” from DUP wingnuts - they’re being cute


#56

That didn’t take long… :whistle:

Keywords: Glenn simpson, Fusion GPS


#57

I wonder was Tony ever the recipient of the odd Book deal here and there, of a lucrative enough nature?


#58

Once again, an Irish political and media establishment narrative, this time of Brexit being an unpopular anomaly and of Johnson being politically incompetent, shown to be hogwash. The result (if not the margin) was pretty obvious to anyone with a brain who wasnt toeing an agenda driven line. (Any mention of a green wave anyone?)

Is Ireland now the least diverse western country in terms of its commentariat? How much more broadly insightful we were when the likes of Waters, Myers and Hook were in a position provide a bit of balance.

Those who uncritically consume Irish media, fintan o toole included, and therefter parrott the establishment line incessantly, including across this site, are clearly inhabiting a fantasy world that exists only within the limited bubble they choose to inhabit.


#59

Insight isn’t a word I’d associate with George Hook. It was all instinct

His instincts were all conservative, counter-revolutionary blue shirt. I’m sure people like Liam Cosgrave and Denis O’Brien are his heroes.

Hook’s instincts are against feminism, trans rights etc. He spots a rat about the whole malarkey. But he really never had an insight in his life.


#60

John McDonnell has been falling on his sword in front of the media the last couple of days. Labour’s loss is all his fault he says. Then in the same breath he blames Brexit and non-stop media vilification of Corbyn. Corbyn for his part has been claiming that Labour won all the election arguments. These guys are delusional. They simply don’t get that the country didn’t want to be led by a roaring red socialist who’s soft on terrorism and totalitarianism, and a self-confessed old-school Marxist. I’ve no doubt that Momentum and the hard left will see that the next dear leader is equally unelectable. Whatever his failings, the Guardian points out that by the next election Tony Blair will be the only Labour leader to have won an election in half a century.