Unemployment rises to 14.9%


#676

July 2018 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in July 2018 was 217,700, down -2,200 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Jun 2008 when it was 213,200.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … rjuly2018/

There were 45,145 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in July 2018 which represents 19.3% of the total Live Register (was 55,247 in July 2017 or 20.1%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
June 2018 was 49,005 (June 2017 was 53,279)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 11.3%
[217,700 (July 2018)+ 49,005 (June 2018)/ 2,353,400 per Labour Force Survey Q1 2018]


#677

broad jobless rate stood at 14.5% 12 months ago, it is now 11.3%

  • does that represent a real (~20%) drop in the burden on the exchequer?

#678

Probably not

Working age income supplement has reduced by ~40% since 2012 - 6billiont to 3.4billion

whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/so … tion/2018/

  • good website to see where your money is wasted

Pensions spending are up by a billion since 2012 - 6 to 7 billion

Disability etc are up a lot too since 2012 by 33% or 500 million , seriously WTF


#679

** Labour force Survey Q2 2018** stats are out
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … rter22018/

As of Q3 2017 the QNHS has been revised and will now be called the Labour force Survey (LFS)
cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pre … veyq22018/
Further revisions took place in Q1 2018
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … rter12018/


#680

August 2018 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in August 2018 was 209,900, down -6,800 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since May 2008 when it was 204,900.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … ugust2018/

There were 43,594 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in August 2018 which represents 19.4% of the total Live Register (was 53,643 in August 2017 or 20.3%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
July 2018 was 48,502 (July 2017 was 51,920)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 10.8%
[209,900 (August 2018) + 49,502 (July 2018)/ 2,399,300 per Labour Force Survey Q2 2018]


#681

A fall of 6,800 in a month is a very likely a statistical quirk related to the seasonal adjustment process.

It can be due to things like the number of weeks in a month. I suspect it is due to part-time teachers signing off in August rather than September this year.


#682

September 2018 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in August 2018 was 212,600, up +1,600 monthly.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … ember2018/

There were 42,124 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in September 2018 which represents 20.5% of the total Live Register (was 51,992 in September 2017 or 21.3%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
August 2018 was 48,339. August 2017 was 51,065

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 10.9%
[212,600 (September 2018) + 48,339 (August 2018)/ 2,399,300 per Labour Force Survey Q2 2018]


#683

October 2018 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in October 2018 was 210,700, up -1,700 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since May 2008 when it was 204,900.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … tober2018/

There were 41,653 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in October 2018 which represents 20.9% of the total Live Register (was 51,290 in October 2017 or 21.7%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
September 2018 was 53,308. September 2017 was 57,633

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 11.0%
[210,700 (October 2018) + 53,308 (September 2018)/ 2,399,300 per Labour Force Survey Q2 2018]


#684

Labour Force Survey Households and Family Units
Quarter 2 2012 - Quarter 2 2018

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … itsq22018/

10.2% of persons under 60 living in jobless households in Q2 2018

9.5% of persons aged 18-59 living in jobless households


#685

The Labour Force Survey Q3 2018 results are out today

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … rter32018/

I’ll post some analysis later but interesting to see that while numbers in the Labour Force and Employment are at new highs, Unemployment seems to be levelling out:

Q4 2017: 6.1% (of which 2.5% long term unemployed)
Q1 2018: 5.7% (of which 2.1% long term unemployed)
Q2 2018: 6.0% (of which 2.0% long term unemployed)
Q3 2018: 6.0% (of which 2.1% long term unemployed)


#686

In Ireland there is an unusual tendency for jobless people to hook up with other jobless people.


#687

** Labour force Survey Q3 2018** stats are out
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … rter32018/

As of Q3 2017 the QNHS has been revised and will now be called the Labour force Survey (LFS)
cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pre … veyq22018/

Further revisions took place in Q1 2018
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … rter12018/


#688

November 2018 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in November r 2018 was 207,200, up -3,100 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since May 2008 when it was 204,900.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … ember2018/

There were 41,759 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in November 2018 which represents 21.3% of the total Live Register (was 51,344 in November 2017 or 22.0%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
October 2018 was 55,335. October 2017 was 60,976

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 10.9%
[207,200 (November 2018) + 55,335 (October 2018)/ 2,417,000 per Labour Force Survey Q3 2018]


#689

December 2018 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in December 2018 was 204,000, up -3,000 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since April 2008 when it was 199,200.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … ember2018/

There were 41,751 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in December 2018 which represents 20.9% of the total Live Register (was 51,159 in December 2017 or 21.7%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
November 2018 was 56,012. November 2017 was 61,553

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 10.8%
[204,000 (December 2018) + 56,012 (November 2018)/ 2,417,000 per Labour Force Survey Q3 2018]


#690

January 2019 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in January 2019 was 200,300, up -3,200 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since April 2008 when it was 199,200.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … nuary2019/

There were 41,240 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in January 2019 which represents 20.7% of the total Live Register (was 50,231 in January 2018 or 21.2%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
December 2018 was 55,480. December 2017 was 61,072

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 10.6%
[200,300 (January 2019) + 55,480 (December 2018)/ 2,417,000 per Labour Force Survey Q3 2018]


#691

As this thread started in 2012 I wonder what the broad jobless rate was in 2006 at the height of the madness.


#692

Challenge accepted!

We have info on the 3 data sets: Live Register, Activation programmes, and QNHS/Labour Force Survey from Jan 2007 to Sep 2018.

Here, the worse month was Nov 2011 and Dec 2012, both with 23.56% as broad jobless rate.

As we have no data for 2006 Activation programmes, if you take the average on those schemes in 2007 and apply them to 2016, the average broad jobless rate in 2016 was 9.1 to 9.6%


#693

Interesting, thanks. I don’t think there were many such activation schemes on the go then, I remember a few local FAS community employment schemes actually had to fold because they couldn’t get candidates.


#694

** Labour force Survey Q4 2018** stats are out
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … rter42018/

As of Q3 2017 the QNHS has been revised and will now be called the Labour force Survey (LFS)
cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pre … veyq22018/
Further revisions took place in Q1 2018
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … rter12018/


#695

February 2019 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in February 2019 was 196,500, up -3,500 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Feb 2008 when it was 187,200.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … ruary2019/

There were 41,264 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in February 2019 which represents 21.0% of the total Live Register (was 50,317 in February 2018 or 21.4%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
January 2019 was 52,361. January 2018 was 58,876
Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 10.3%
[196,500 (February 2019) + 52,361 (January 2019)/ 2,410,100 per Labour Force Survey Q4 2018]