Unemployment rises to 14.9%


Actually, Ireland isn’t that bad. I manage a comfortable life working part time, without even needing to be paid for “self improvement”.

But then, I have the magic combination of Irish pay rates and Chinese material needs or desires and I even work in a (small scale) production environment…



Until you can point to countries which do things significantly better you might as well just be sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting that you can’t hear us.


Here. Things are generally much much better here.


That’s great, however not everybody wants to live in Germany. I think it’s a great country. I also think Ireland is a great country. They’re not really comparable though, or maybe I mean equivalent.


Due out tomorrow at 11am

Quarterly National Household Survey – Detailed Employment Series Quarter 1 2009 – Quarter 1 2015

cso.ie/en/newsandevents/stat … hjune2015/


Irish unemployment steady at 9.7 pct end-June as jobs growth slows - -> uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/irish … 08422.html

Unemployment rate unchanged this month on six-year low - -> irishtimes.com/business/econ … -1.2267935



June 2015 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in June 2015 was 9.7% or 208,100, down -0.0% or -500
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … tjune2015/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in June 2015 was 344,900, down -2,300
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … rjune2015/

There were 69,465 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in June 2015 which represents 19.5% of the total Live Register (was 76,561 in June 2014 or 19.2%)

Live Register Activation Programmes: May 2015 was 80,888
(April 2015 was 88,398 and May 2014 was 76,173)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register. If we add the total standardised unemployment rate (SUR) + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 19.9% (344,900+80,888 per June 2015 Live Register / 2,142,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q1 2015)


€350m to be spent subsidising families in low-paid work

irishtimes.com/news/social- … -1.2273055


If rents were cheaper, there would be no need for income top-ups.


Bingo, unfortunately too many VI’s with there snouts in the trough to do anything about that and besides sure it’s only taxpayers money


July 2015 Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in July 2015 was 9.7% or 208,900, up -0.0% or +300
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … tjuly2015/

5/8/15: Irish monthly Unemployment Rate remains stuck at 9.7%

trueeconomics.blogspot.co.uk/201 … -rate.html


August 2015 Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in August 2015 was 9.5% or 206,500, up +0.0% or +400

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublication … ugust2015/

That is 3 consecutive months of no change. Trend?


Too early to call it a trend in my opinion. The estimates between the quarterly updates don’t seem to be especially accurate. As your previous post shows, last month’s estimate had the unemployment rate flat at 9.7% for 3 months. This has now been revised down to 9.5%. The PMI figures and employment surveys are still pointing to growth, so no reason to think the decline in the unemployment rate is levelling off yet I think.


If unemployment stalls out this high on this cycle, then we could be in big trouble when this cycle turns down.

I’d be surprised if we don’t see the weak Euro feed into lower unemployment through the remainder of this year.
EUR/USD and EUR/GBP really key at this point.


Last weeks CSO stats showed that the no employed and in the labour force up significantly in Q2. it also showed that emigration fell in the year to April compared with the years before. Perpaps recently we are now back at net immigration which might be leading to a slow down in the fall of unemployment but not in job creation.

If the no unemployed stays the same but more jobs are created then the rate of unemployment will still fall tho at a slower rate. As the QNHS are back dated into the unemployment figures it nearly always leads to a fall in the unemployment rate these days.


Constantin had a report on the quality of employed over on trueeconomics.blogspot.com. Inference drawn that the quality of employment is disimproving and that Ireland is sending its own overseas to be replaced by cheap labour but Constantin didn’t say that but that’s what I took from it.


Average hourly earnings were up 1.5% in the year to Q2.

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … estimates/

Constantin seems to only write about negative aspects about the Irish economy. He had is day between 2008-12, now it’s time for him to go away and wait for the next recession.


Rising hourly earnings are good if they reflect rising productivity, either by rising output in the same jobs or by a shift to higher added value jobs, but not so much if they simply reflect rising labour costs driven by a higher cost of living (for which, read rents and house prices).
I’d say the latter is a negative aspect, if that’s what’s driving the wage growth. Obviously, if it’s the former driver, then it’s not negative at all.


Constantin’s blog has some very nice analysis, but he certainly does seem to be a glass half empty person! Always focusses on the negative in anything he writes.


Except when analysing Russia.