Unemployment rises to 14.9%


#505

Definitely the most vocal of the Trinity economists but probably not the most accomplished within his peer group :slight_smile:


#506

you are just saying that in the hope that he reads it.


#507

I wonder why nobody is suggesting him as a possible canidate for the next governor of the CBoI unlike the current Whatley professor who is the same age (give or take a few months) :slight_smile:


#508

Great. New beginnings and debt write offs all round. Hall and his buddies already have too much influence in dame st. Thanks


#509

Looks like the current Whately professor has been promoted to Governor of the CBoI :slight_smile:


#510

October 2015 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in October 2015 was 9.3% or 203,000, up -0.1% or -1,900
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublication … tober2015/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in October 2015 was 332,200, down -4,400
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … tober2015/

There were 65,184 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in October 2015 which represents 20.3% of the total Live Register (was 71,452 in October 2014 or 19.9%)

Live Register Activation Programmes: September 2015 was 74,274
(August 2015 was 65,616 and September 2014 was 76,407)
Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register. If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 18.7% (332,200+74,274/ 2,169,900 in Labour Force per QNHS Q2 2015)


#511

QNHS Q3 2015

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … rter32015/

Unemployment down from 9.8% to 9.3%


#512

Dublin has added 30k jobs in the last year, an increases of 5% in one year. This must be contributing a lot to the rental crises.

Unemployment rate is now at 8.9% in October having peaked at 15.2% in February 2012. Still about 3 years away from full employment which would correspond to an unemployment rate of about 5%.


#513

I’m not convinced we will ever get below 5%. Too many will have become used to being on welfare and will be unable to attain a wage higher enough to pay after tax what they receive in benefits


#514

Ah one of my favourite questions: what is Ireland’s ‘natural’ rate of unemployment.

If you take a 50-year view then the 9% we are at now is close to long run average.But it hit mid-teens a mere four years ago and as well in early 90s. At the same time mid-70s and 97-07 supported something in the region of 5-6%. Most economies traditionally display variations around a trend which are small and short. But in Ireland they are very large and very persistent which makes the empirical question of what exactly equilibrium is very difficult to answer.

A much older head than me once told me that by about 1993 policymakers had utterly given up on the barren estates of Finglas, Clondalkin and Tallaght. ‘These people will never work, we can only hope their children will’ went the thinking. Unemployment in these areas had been of the 25% nature for a decade. But by the late 90s, he told me, no-income families had turned into 2-income families and people were arguing over parking.

Is it supply? Does the skill level of the population oscillate rapidly rendering vast numbers unemployable at short notice? No. The average sill level is on a slow upward trend.
Is it labour market institutions? Do DSP and whatever Fás is called now suddenly discover how to make peple seek work? No. Change in these organisations takes a generation.
Is it financial incentives? Maybe. Tax policy changes a bit over time but paid childcare has always been expensive in Ireland.

So what is it?

Fact is that in Ireland demand is extremely volatile. Some of it is openness of the economy to tourism, trade etc which means that global swings get amplified in Ireland.
But I think some of it is just cultural. There is a marked tendency to adjust your spending patterns to those around you and this tends to lead to the very long periods of boom and bust we enjoy.


#515

No offence intended, but that was entirely bullshit.


#516

No offense but your one line comment is worse.

I thought the anecdote that they had given up on those estates was very interesting.
Indeed as somebody who went to school with these folks in the 80s and 90s I fully expected many to end up on the dole queue. Color me surprised when I later learned that that many of the headers were busy working in various trades, service businesses and even IT. So it wasn’t something obvious that was going to change from the inside let me tell you that. One
Can only imagine it was a combination of genuine opportunity and peer pressure once the mates got a job flashing the cash, it didn’t make sense to look to social welfare as an answer.


#517

November 2015 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in November 2015 was 8.9% or 191,700, down -0.0% or -700
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2015/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in November 2015 was 330,000, down -2,200
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2015/

There were 65,678 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in November 2015 which represents 20.7% of the total Live Register (was 72,277 in November 2014 or 20.5%)

Live Register Activation Programmes: October 2015 was 80,576
(September 2015 was 74,274 and October 2014 was 84,672)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register. If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 18.1% [330,000 (Nov 15)+ 65,678 (Oct 15)/ 2,186,000 in Labour Force per QNHS Q3 2015]


#518

What was so ‘wrong’ with Skippy’s post Coles2?


#519

My opinion is that absent a large scale cut in welfare rates we are highly unlikely to get the unemployment rate below 6% on this economic cycle ( before the next recession). That is because some non welfare entitled eastern european who has to work ( and has no welfare entitlement) will take the job sooner than someone who is unemployed AND getting welfare. The flood of returning native Irish from Australia and Canada over the next 2 years will also be forced to take whatever is on offer as they will not be entitled to welfare either.

If we cut welfare rates and activated unemployed people faster we might get as low as 4% but that then leaves many of that 4% in a very parlous financial situation long term.

I cannot see the unemployment rate going below 4%, ever. That to my mind is structural and 96% employment is full employment I would think.


#520

I would have thought emigration to Australia and Canada spiked about three years ago?


#521

Also the returning Irish , especially if construction workers, should be in high demand.


#522

finfacts.ie/Irish_finance_ne … -again-446

Apparently full employment is anything under 6%. Which will not be met even by 2020 per the Gov


#523

December 2015 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in December 2015 was 8.8% or 190,600, down -0.0% or -700
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2015/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in December 2015 was 328,600, down -1,800
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2015/

There were 65,678 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in December 2015 which represents 20.4% of the total Live Register (was 72,362 in December 2014 or 20.3%)

Live Register Activation Programmes: November 2015 was 81,298
(October 2015 was 80,576 and November 2014 was 87,623)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register. If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 18.8% [328,600 (Dec 15)+ 81,298 (Nov 15)/ 2,186,000 in Labour Force per QNHS Q3 2015]


#524

January 2016 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in January 2016 was 8.6% or 186,800, down -0.2% or -3,00. This is the lowest rate since Dec 2008 when it was also 8.6%
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … nuary2016/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in January 2016 was 323,200, down -4,800. This is the lowest rate since Dec 2008 when it was 296,800.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … nuary2016/

There were 65,270 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in January 2016 which represents 20.3% of the total Live Register (was 72,085 in January 2015 or 20.1%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
December 2015 was 82,309 (December 2014 was 88,364)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 18.55%
[323,200 (Jan 16)+ 82,309 (Dec 15)/ 2,186,000 in Labour Force per QNHS Q3 2015]