Unemployment rises to 14.9%


#605

January 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in January 2017 was 7.1% or 154,800, a monthly drop of -0.1% or -2,900.
This is the lowest rate since Dec 2008 when it was 7.0%
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … nuary2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in January 2017 was 278,600, down -3,500 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 264,300.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublication … nuary2017/

There were 59,480 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in January 2017 which represents 21.5% of the total Live Register (was 65,214 in January 2016 or 20.3%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
December 2016 was 71,828 (December 2015 was 81,309)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 15.8%
[278,600 (January 2017)+ 71,828 (December 2016)/ 2,218,200 in Labour Force per QNHS Q3 2016]


#606

January 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in January 2017 was 7.1% or 154,800, a monthly drop of -0.1% or -2,900.
This is the lowest rate since Dec 2008 when it was 7.0%
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … nuary2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in January 2017 was 278,600, down -3,500 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 264,300.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … nuary2017/

There were 59,940 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in January 2017 which represents 21.7% of the total Live Register (was 65,678 in January 2016 or 20.4%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
December 2016 was 71,828 (December 2015 was 81,309)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 16.0%
[278,600 (January 2017)+ 71,828 (December 2016)/ 2,195,600 in Labour Force per QNHS Q4 2016]


#607

QNHS Q4 2016 stats are out
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … rter42016/


Additional info per Table 7…


#608

I can’t square those figures with ChickenParmentier’s assertion that there is increasing competition for residential space in Dublin due to a booming local jobs market(I’m paraphrasing and perhaps not 100% accurately).


#609

Employment growth has been phenomenal in 2015 and 2016, much higher than expectations.

If this rate continued (and I don’t think it will) the 2008 peak would be reached as soon as two years from now.

Youth unemployment is collapsing and foreigners are coming to Ireland in big numbers to work again.

Furthermore, it is sectorally much more balanced than it was then too. Basically a lower share of public sector and construction than there was then.

A sub-7% unemployment rate is basically full employment in Ireland.


#610

What happened if we get 50,000 unskilled emigrants back from the US?

m.independent.ie/world-news/nort … 71588.html

Granted 50k is unlikely but even 10k would have quite an impact on the youth numbers.


#611

Anyone coming back from the states would know how to work hard.
Much less welfare entitlement culture also.


#612

There won’t be many of them unskilled at this stage. Some of them would be in high demand i.e. anything building related


#613

stats taken from this thread and yes I know q2 2016 is mentioned twice
q3 2016 2195600
q2 2016 2218200
q2 2016 2202700
q4 2015 2170500
q4 2014 2152500

it is very weird that the official labour force isn’t growing very quickly or not as quickly as one would expect based on the optimism/bubble talk that permeates the collective conciousness.

perhaps there is a growing unofficial labour force in cramped quarters
perhaps the labour force in Dublin is growing while rural Ireland is reducing
perhaps the talk of boom is mostly just unfounded but is on message for what the powers that be want.
perhaps a combination of all of the above.

I acknowledge residential property supply is very tight in Dublin.

change/Growth in Income tax receipts would be something useful to observe.


#614

Building employment is still sub-par. Anything think we’re building too much at the moment? I think there’s plenty of scope to get to full employment Irish style.


#615

irishtimes.com/business/econ … -1.2995548
income tax down.

yes there is activity out there but I think there is a more bubble irrational exuberance out there than anything else.

I don’t believe Ireland’s “recovery” is a firm footing.


#616

The labour force numbers are actually about 60k higher than advertised.

Census 2016 ‘discovered’ a large chunk of workers who the CSO thought had migrated.

They just haven’t been cranked through the full CSO machine yet to get into the labour force estimates.

Ireland’s economy is very volatile. That means that no recovery is very sustainable, nor is any contraction going to last forever either. If you smooth over a very long time (like 20 years) things have been going well.

Can we reach French or German levels of output per worker (aka productivity)? I doubt it with our current sub-standard training and welfare systems, but you never know.


#617

so you are saying that income tax receipts are dropping on a workforce that is actually larger and the average industrial wage in the private sector is actually lower than previously estimated. We can have some confidence in the average wage in the public sector but less confidence in the wage in the private sector.


#618

Where did I say income tax receipts were dropping?

Are they dropping? They are down 0.4% yoy in January and February but this is just noise in a volatile series.


#619

they are spending based on their expectations of receipts. The economy is being pumped for all they’re worth with little traction.

…and the global economy is actually reasonably good at the moment which is what is driving it, not internal factors.

thelocal.de/20170223/german … lthy-trade
unemployment is down to about 3.4% in my federal state.

It wouldn’t be right to be so self-congratulatory about the jobless figures when credit can’t be taken for the improvement internally within Ireland.

Next international depression/recession and Ireland is back where it was because from an infrastructural perspective the Irish economy is much as it was before.


#620

Yes agree with this and also FreeFallin’s comment. But who do they displace?


#621

February 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in February 2017 was 6.6% or 145,100, a monthly drop of -0.1% or -2,900.
This is the lowest rate since Jul 2008 when it was 6.5%
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ruary2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in February 2017 was 276,000, down -2,800 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 264,300.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ruary2017/

There were 59,896 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in February 2017 which represents 21.8% of the total Live Register (was 65,929 in January 2016 or 20.6%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
January 2017 was 69,559 (January 2016 was 80,230)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 15.7%
[276,000 (February 2017)+ 69,559 (January 2017)/ 2,195,600 in Labour Force per QNHS Q4 2016]


#622

March 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in March 2017 was 6.4% or 141,400, a monthly drop of -0.2% or -3,300.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 6.1%
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … march2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in March 2017 was 271,700, down -3,900 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 264,300.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … march2017/

There were 59,260 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in March 2017 which represents 22.2% of the total Live Register (was 65,427 in March 2016 or 20.7%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
February 2017 was 67,949 (February 2016 was 79,612)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 15.5%
[271,700 (March 2017)+ 67,949 (~February 2017)/ 2,195,600 in Labour Force per QNHS Q4 2016]


#623

1,000 jobs a week being created according to Noonan.
It all feels so mid-noughties, even that property programme on rte the past couple of weeks.


#624

Hey get a load of Krugman over here!